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Might be a rocky ride tomorrow late on. Could be up could be done. Previous triple whitching has been rocky.
Perhaps a voluntary cut as you say. I would expect that this would be passed by the OPEC chair. I remember Saudi did a similar production cut when the POO was very low. Now it would stir things up if the Saudi's did another voluntary cut given the slide in the POO.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-finance-minister-hunt-attend-meeting-with-north-sea-execs-sources-2022-12-07/
Perhaps a price floor for the new tax..... seems sensible given the POO movement of late.
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Unions and BP PLC have reached an agreement on wages for workers BP' large Rotterdam refinery, which had been largely idled this month amid a dispute over wages.
A union spokesperson said agreement had been reached on a new three-year package including a 6% wage increase, a 4,000 euro one-time bonus, and the ability to participate in a stock compensation plan.
Workers are expected to gradually restart the parts of the facility, one of Europe's largest, that are still offline ahead of a vote on Wednesday. BP could not immediately be reached for comment.
Morning,
Looks cheap to me. All it will take is a power cut or two and this share will pivot upwards imo. The OPEC call re POO should support if a cut is decided on. I have two traunche's now and
have an average just north of 20p. I was a holder years ago and did ok at the time so have alway followed this share. Missed the fun over the summer but expect more in the future.
A couple of questions to myself....One question I have is that whopping tax loss carry on the books.. how long does this last for and will it be in play in any takeover ?.. The second is the haste of exit of the previous head honcho ; what happened there ?...
Mind only a small position as I mainly hold BP for oilers just find IGAS an interesting proposition at these levels.
Not a surprise.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-cut-uk-investment-by-25-after-windfall-tax-2022-12-01/
Reckon Shell will follow with Equinox, will BP follow suit.... I think so.
The real problem is that the majority of the North Sea revenue is by small Oilers who are highly leveraged (having borrowed to buy from the major's). Perhaps the finance bill will be amended prior to final approval..
As this will impact the BP SP I have been pondering on the possible output change from OPEC on Sunday PM. If it reduces by a further 2MBO (as I think) then this will be supportive going forward. I suppose China is the 'elephant in the room' as they will I am sure relax the corvid quarantine rules soon. I do suspect with all the hospital building and jabs for the elderly all the pieces will be in place for a pre Chinese New Year proclamation... well that is my reading of the tea leaves today..
So my guess is a reduction on 2 MBO by OPEC+ on Sunday ..... and fwiw the EU not being able to reach a full consensus on the ruski's POO the day after.... interesting times.
Apologies o/t re BP but just had a punt on IGAS ..... sub 22p. Reckon any news re power issues then the 'shale' discussions will only start to gain traction again.
1.5GW is as I type being generated from Coal the UK is only managing circa 90% of its demand and circa 10% is having to be provided from the interconnectors. Looks like if the wind ain't blowing and the sun ain't shining we are goosed...
I can remember the 3 day week under Ted Heath and candles ... ok when young, not so ok when old.
I agree Jakers with your post. Next week should see some price action with the planned events. Another matter is China and when they will pivot. It may be just prior to Christmas or more likely the Chinese New Year in Jan 23.
On the matter of the subject header ..
https://grid.iamkate.com/
I see UK PLC are importing lots of electricity from Norway today. This week will have little wind, fog (no sun) and be chilly. Perhaps it is time to test the generator as this next week will be a test for the power distribution network. I note that Europe will have the same weather.
U.S., Allies Eye $60 Price Cap For Russian Crude, so if Russia play ball the yanks will re-fill their SPR at $60 a barrel..
No chance (in Russian). Just let's wait for OPEC + to let us know the day before and I am pretty sure Russia will not play ball. One consequence is that the world will loose millions of barrels as the ruskies will not play the game and I suspect will 'cut their nose to spite their face'.
Bit of a drum roll to the 5th / 6th December. One thing I am sure of is that the POO will only rise as our politicians are playing with fire and will be burnt by rising prices ( perhaps that is what they want) given the current cheapness of oil and products.
Interesting times...
Reckon it will be some time before we have anything like yesterdays misleading news again. As I inferred yesterday any investigation should 'follow the money'.
Looking at year end there are three catalysts looming which should propel the POO and perhaps the oilers. Firstly China (who is knocking up news hospitals at a rate) who I think will re-open and take the corvid outbreak on the chin. This will be positive for the world growth and eventually oil and products demand. Before then the OPEC + meeting early December I think will actually reduce Oil output by at least as much as the last meeting. Followed on the day later by the 'cap' announcement on Russian oil.
My argument is supported by inflation and factoring this in the POO brent should breach $100 in December and quickly climb to $130. It is now obvious that electric vehicles are now more expensive to run as well as to buy than the alternative (diesel / petrol). So in my mind OPEC will react early, to save the governments increasing fuel taxes to ensure electric is viable. imo this makes the release of the SPR for political purposes look a tad stupid and will cost the USA in the long term.
o/t but did not realise that the interest on the govt debt will run at circa £100 Billion per annum (OBR) that's eye watering . Added to that is the govt is still borrowing vast amounts. The net result may by the £ and gilts coming under pressure next year. As BP is a dollar company this again will help the SP and no doubt is incorporated the the analysts SP estimates of circa £7.
Not a bad share to be in at these uncertain times.
Bet someone (who no doubt was the source) has made shed loads of money on that news. WSJ will be implicated perhaps .... or more likely for not confirming the news (that was likely to move the market). Someone will get fingered no doubt, others will have made a packet. The positive from my perspective is BP buying low and the longer the SP stays at these levels the greater the divi (increase) dilemma will become. Interesting times ahead early December (5th / 6th).
Given that BP will have around 18B shares on the UK Market year end. Then if the mandate is still set at 10% max buyback for the year ( as this year ).... and they do the same re bonus shares (an additional $500M or so ). Then with a $2.5B per month buyback for 2023 ( total $10.5B for the year) if the SP is low 500's and the exchange rate is near £1 - $1.10 BP might breach the 10%. (remember they have done $3.5B last qtr)
So place your bets ...... are they likely to increase the mandate in excess of !0% or substantially increase the dividend... or buy more 'green' companies. Me I am in the increased dividend camp.
My logic is supported by the OPEC + meeting on 4/12. The US mid-terms in the rear mirror, and the tightening the screws as the Ruskies will be hit with the CAP on the 5/12 and will I suspect not object to an OPEC + target reduction. One thing to remember is that say the Ruskies loose 3MBO they might not find a home for all of this so this will further tighten the market down the line. And with global inflation running at circa 10% then the POO should reflect this (you would think).
Sure UK govt will demand more but remember only 15% of profit is exposed (5% in the EU) .... the cost of production will go up (margins reduce) and other territories will be more attractive (don't bite the hand that feeds you comes to mind)
All in all I see long term BP SP being one way (with fluctuations along the way). I must admit to some bemusement when Barclays came up with a £7.00 target , now Goldman Sachs have joined them at £7.00 with the other analysts upping their price estimates. My guess is that £6 is possible prior to summer 23.
Still a 'strong buy' in my book.
I do think we should reach £5 prior to year end, not until early December I think.
Buybacks .... reckon on 2.75B, dividend unchanged and EPS circa 10% less than Q2. All in all not a bad old share to be in.
A good read the attached re gas prices for UK households into 2023.. See the price of Nat Gas is still elevated.
https://www.themoneyedit.com/household-bills/will-energy-prices-fall-2023
Germany Is Dismantling A Wind Farm To Make Way For A Coal Mine... honest !
Shell should give a steer tomorrow... Once the US Elections are done with BP should be headed to the heights of £5.
Liquidity issues for pension funds re cash margin calls with the deadline this Friday. Lots of assets / shares being sold. Goldman & I suspect Buffet sniffing around for distressed assets. Perhaps this crisis has been cooked up in No10, still surprised by the call from Andrew Bailey last night. Lots of these funds were into ESG and it was reported that oilers were being avoided. So at last ESG is good for BP and the oilers as I anticipate will not be impacted by forced equity sales by the pension funds. Inflation running at level's where 'old economy' equity with healthy divi's are becoming both resilient and attractive. Still reckon on around £5 for year end once this bumpy period is behind us.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/GE-Slashes-Wind-Power-Workforce.html
This is where commercial reality kicks in. I like most folks are up for renewables on a level playing field, just the cost of field maintenance is getting a lot bigger. The UK is no different given that the home charging of electric vehicles is now subsidised by the price cap on power. Diesel differential is very large given the switch to Diesel generation given the price of Nat Gas. The market will alway's win, I just wish all politicians would take note.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75/
Looks like the numbers are going the wrong way for JB. 3.4MBO off forecast.. Will help support POO and oilers. Exxon up over 4% over the pond.
2 Million Barrels / Day..... JMMC