Member Info for gordon1237

Hi Jasper. Interesting in depth analysis as always. A couple of comments.
Are we actually getting a new broker? Or are you just using that as a " what if " scenario? Doesn't really make any difference to the calculations.
As I discussed the the other day, the I TCF is the contingent resource. The old 2P value for 100% of Cambay was around 200 bcf. Of course that was before the massive increase in prices so would be higher now. This is part of what Joe said in his email reply to me.
“ To sum up, currently we do not have 2P resources. Everything is in the contingent category. All or part of the 2C resource could be elevated to 2P but requires further activities and confirmations. "
I guess 30 to 50% may be possible but they wont be able to do the sums until after the refrac.
Interested to know where your figure of $7 per barrel cones from? I presume it is an estimate of the average profit per barrel? In which case, it it is a useful shortcut and eliminates the need to calculate drilling costs etc. Given the difficult nature of the Cambay geology those costs may well be higher than average. You'd imagine they won't know the true profit margin until they get into the new wells.
Yes on the face of it there is a big disconnect between the theoretical value of the asset and the market valuation. I think the reason is simple. The market, understandably wont believe it until the refrac proves it. Some may say 90% COS but if that was the case the sp would already be much higher. Having waited this long, I guess we can wait another 6 months or so to find out. Just hope there is no more dilution in the meantime. Atb. Gla.

Looks like someone's impersonating you Conger. Know how annoying that is.

Ssccss. A jv is at least 6 months away. They have cash for the refrac plus maybe a few hundred k usd. A lot depends on how much production brings in, but it is quite possible they will need more cash before the jv. Atb.

Good move MI. Yes, the flow rates might be another opportunity. Possibly, be an overreaction in both directions. A spike if initially good, a drop when they decline later. All good fun. Lol.

Got to say, even I, didn't expect it to drop as quickly as this. Not really a trader but now wish I'd sold at 0.28 ish with a view to getting back in later.

ztr. If that is the case, it is about $180k per month, not enormous but would still take a decent chunk out of the monthly cash burn, which I think Jasper calculated at around $300k per month.

Ah. I was about to ask where he had gone also.

Bffm. Yes that could be a great long term profitable project. None of us know enough about time scales, finance etc to predict effect on sp.

Ssccss. It's not so much what I believe, its what the market believes. At the risk of being accused of repeating myself ad nauseam, everything depends on the refrac. All the news so far is a step on the way to achieving a successful refrac . It is great that we are producing and generating much needed cash flow but it wont mean a lot without the refrac. It has been said to have a 90% COS and hopefully that will turn out to br right, but self evidently the market is factoring in a lot of doubt.
Atb.

Bffm. The only update that may give a big rerate is the refrac results. That is indeed months away, probably 6 months in fact. Big CCS news might give a boost but that is also likely long term. Atb.

The 1 tcf is a contingent resource which by definition means that not all of it is commercially recoverable. When Oilex had 45% of Cambay the 2P number, proven and probable reserves, was given as 93bcf. This equates to 200 bcf for 100%. This number is likely to increase with the current higher gas prices. A while ago I had a reply from Joe about reserves. Part of his reply was
" To sum up, currently we do not have 2P resources. Everything is in the contingent category. All or part of the 2C resource could be elevated to 2P but requires further activities and confirmations."
It seems obvious that how much of the 2C becomes 2P depends on the success of the refrac. Going to be a while before we know. Gla.

Fair enough JR, if that's your strategy. Most would be delighted with 0.5 to 1p this year. Good luck.

JR. Now I know you are having a laugh. You wouldn't be invested if you didn't think a 15 to 20 bag was possible this year? Barring them striking gold at Cambay, that ain't gonna happen. Whatever you are on can I get some? Atb.

Newdealz. I first bought in Jan 2015 at 2.5p. Gradually averaged down to 0.32 p. Thought I had lost the lot when it reached 0.065p in December 2020. Managed to get out at 0.407p for a modest profit when it spiked in April 2021. Couldn't resist getting back in at 0.22 p average. Atb.

Fair enough bffm, but there is little they can do to speed the refrac up. Atb.

Toptuf. Yes sentiment is what I meant by spike on the day. I suppose if the initial flow rates are really good we might see something. Might be an opportunity. Atb.

Hi Steven. It really is impossible to say when, if ever we will reach 2p. Only my opinion, but I would be amazed if it was in the next year. I cant see any massive boost before refrac results, which aren't going to be before, about October. People are saying restart of production is transformational . Cant agree with that. It's a great and necessary first step, but unless it is followed by a successful refrac, it will be meaningless. They previously said flow from the restarted wells would be modest and just cover costs. With the dramatic increase in gas price we can assume they will do better than that. Whether that will be enough to make the company cash positive we can't say. We can also expect the flow rates to decline over time. However I don't think we should be too disappointed if the rates are low and/or decline quickly. It's what they are after refrac that is all important.
If the refrac is really successful, they should be able to get a good jv deal and farm out maybe 50% of the asset. Where would that get the sp? My opinion would be that that the spike on the day might get it close to 1p. I'm sure others will say far more. Of course, the refrac could achieve various degrees of success, so it could be a lot less, or more. Not saying it's at all likely that it is unsuccessful, but it cant be totally ruled out. All very vague, I know, but it has to be.
My strategy is going to look out for any spikes on news and get out, and hope to get back on later, depending on circumstances. Risky, and might miss out on big gains, I know. Might have done that yesterday if we had seen a bigger spike, but will probably have to wait now.
Others will say, what about the CCS project? May do well, but likely more long term.
Can't really advise you, but you might do better to get out with whatever profit you can, and live to fight another day, either with Oilex or elsewhere.
Others, will tell you it's going to do far better. This is only my opinion, which could be totally wrong. It's up to you what you decide but whatever it is, I wish you the very best of luck. Atb.

Hi newdealz. I have been here for 7 years and in that time there have been no public offerings that ordinary shareholders could take part in. Just numerous raisings for institutional investors and dilution after dilution. In my seven years we have been diluted by more than a factor of 10. Atb.

Yes, a nice positive interview. He was of course unable to tell us anything new. Gla.

You'd have to say, if it wasn't for yesterday's rise, we would have been delighted with today's close of 0.28.