Member Info for goldgnome

Ray Dalio is interesting ... gold is mentioned, "cash is trash"

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/ray-dalio-on-how-hes-seeing-the-world-right-now

Having picked up PERIL, by Bob Woodward, I am in a minor state of amaement at how close the US came to an end as we know it, when Trump refused to accept the electoral outcome.

The Prologue starts with the perspective of General Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his conversations with Chinese military personnel during the events of Jan 6th 2021 at the Capitol. Milley reassures China of America's stability, and makes sure the rest of his chain of command is aware of the nuclear weapons protocols, reminding them that he needs to be involved in any proposed military strike.
https://www.amazon.com/Peril-Bob-Woodward/dp/1982182911#customerReviews
The pundits are calling a return of Trump in the 2024 election, as the opposition (Biden) cant even remember the name of the Australian Prime Minister, and a host of other gaffes, too many to list...and he wants a $4 trillion package to pass through congress...LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve3i7ts-OXM

Good ol US$, stronger for longer, I dont think

best
the gnome

Yes, Pardey in, and I am out of Predictive Discovery. You wonder how companies make such stupid decisions.
I don't follow rent seekers with dubious records.
Made a nice profit of 120% for a few weeks "at the office".

We have piled on so much personal debt in Oz, many households will go to the wall if there is much of an interest rate rise.
But inflation is rising, wages cannot, social discontent rising, hospitals full, borders open..etc

havagoodweekend all

CI

What is the correlation coefficient between CEY SP, and the price of gold in the last 6 months?

What is the coefficient since Nov 1 2020?

What was the correction that happened at the end of October 2020? This essentially created a 20% instant drop in SP, and started a downward momentum reflecting loss of faith for a short period of time, after which the SP seems to have tracked the POG.
Recall: The reason behind the miner’s share price tumble today is that the company has announced it is reducing its production forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020.

In an operational update, Centamin advised that it has detected movement in a localised area of waste material in its Sukari mine. As a result, it has decided to immediately defer open pit mining operations in this zone. This decision is a preventative measure to protect the health and safety of its workforce and the long-term potential of the Sukari gold mine.

It expects that production for the fourth quarter will be reduced to approximately 70,000 ounces. That compares to preliminary gold production for the third quarter of approximately 120,000 ounces.
So to my childish mind, it seems that what is required is faith to be restored, and confident talking and articulation of strategy and action plans is one step forward of doing this in the short term. If the walk follows the talk, and we see cost savings realised, we see production stabilise and creep up, we see reserve expansion, we see monetarisation of the West African assets, we will see this as building positive SP momentum towards a true value of this company.

If this does not happen, the company in my opinion is undervalued, and as such is a takeover target for growth orientated companies who have competent confident management.

Well I do agree CI! How people can get hoodwinked into believing these people (brokers), who have never worked in the industry (prob read Ancient History at some University), to the degree they give these guys 1% to buy a share, and then 1% to sell the same share regardless of whether the share price went up or down...well its just stupidity (and as I remarked previously, this disease is far more common than is admitted).

the gnome

ps I have always found Madam LASH, to be very fair in her dealings, and a very steady hand on the rudder, so to speak

Lets be honest the country with the largest standing army, most nuclear warheads (etc, etc) hasn't won a war since 1945. But keeps doing the same old thing...seems a strange thing to do, some would say stupid.

best
the gnome

Mr T

Without being an expert in UK politics (aside), it does seem to the people downunder, that Boris is somewhere between a egocentric sociopath and a fruit cake, perhaps a bit on the fruitier end of the spectrum, but be myself not fitting of making such disclosure, I ask forgiveness.

It certainly is not a good reflection on either the political process and/or the people of UK that someone like this is the best leader to lead the lemmings over what does appear to be a steep cliff.

Don't worry the phenomena is not restricted to the UK, there are a number of the outbreaks of this phenomenoa in "developed countries". One does think of another pandemic.

best of luck !

the Gnome

Since there is no physical constraint on the supply of fiat currency, this sort of fragile monetary system is based on TRUST. Most of the trust rests on the shoulders of Congress that they will restrict their deficit spending to a reasonable degree such that inflation is gradual and pervasive rather than spectacular and acutely disruptive. It is historically around wars and the conclusions of long-term debt cycles that this trust gets broken.

As cracks appear in the financial system, showing users how arbitrary it is, it could erode confidence in the system and the institutions that support it. In the meantime, any individual loophole, like a temporary $1 trillion platinum coin exploit or an invocation of the 14th Amendment, is unlikely to be immediately inflationary in its own right. It’s more about the build-up of cracks and the increasing perception that the existing monetary system is rather arbitrary and that the checks and balances are gradually losing power.

Overall, my base case remains that the 2020s decade will continue to be one of real asset outperformance, meaning commodities and other scarce assets are the things to have exposure to. This won’t be linear, and there will be periods of time where having some currency allows you to buy dips and rebalance, but overall, the key is to have strong legal claims on real productive assets at appropriate valuations, and/or exposure to other truly scarce things.

Yes, thanks ...a great succinct read. The book is at
https://www.amazon.com.au/Basic-Laws-Human-Stupidity-International/dp/0753554836
The book inspired some readers to call for the guillotine to be bought back into vogue, which maynot have been the objective of the book!

Stupidity coupled with bullsh?t is a dangerous combination ... and the cause of much mirth ...

Anyhow, everyone sees bull****, listens to it, and reads it, every single day.
[and of course now its on line, and one can also go to sleep listening to it..etc, one can even dance to it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1NN2vv2PsI ]
At the same time, each of us is guilty of generating it, thinking it, mulling it, and
speaking it aloud. We are all morons from time to time, spouting nonsense as
we go about our lives, without any real consequences. The crucial thing is to
be aware of it and to feel sorry about it; because to err is human, and
admitting your faults is halfway to having them forgiven. There will always
be those who take us for fools, but we recognize our own folly far too rarely.
Apart from the perpetual purr of idiocy that surrounds us, day in, day out,
there’s also, sadly, the roar of the masters of stupidity, kings of stupidity—
*******s with a capital A. Those *******s, whether you encounter them at
work or at home, do not strike you as anecdotal. They hound you and harass
you with their obstinacy in crass wrongheadedness, their unjustified
arrogance...

“Good sense is the most equitably distributed thing in the world,” wrote
Descartes. And what about stupidity?

Rumor has it that we ourselves are the source of it. I am no exception.

My father was very fond of poetry, and could quote pages of it, off by heart, and every now and again he would break out
with little quote below ... and I would cry laughing.

“All the world is queer save thee and me, and even thou art a little queer.”
The social reformer Robert Owen (1771-1858) is supposed to have said this in 1828 to his business partner William Allen. They had both been involved in setting up the model industrial community New Lanark...

and rest is history.

My grandmother (an indomitable soul), used to say the stupid sleep soundly in these times (year after year).
Turned me into a wilful insomniac?

good luck all
the gnome

The second part of the post below goes something along these lines, which is a sentiment I have heard a number of times now...

Is unending economic growth really a defining feature of what it means to be human?

BOOKS IN REVIEW
WORK: A DEEP HISTORY, FROM THE STONE AGE TO THE AGE OF ROBOTS

For the longest part of our history, humans lived as hunter-gatherers who neither experienced economic growth nor worried about its absence. Instead of working many hours each day in order to acquire as much as possible, our nature—insofar as we have one—has been to do the minimum amount of work necessary to underwrite a good life.

This is the central claim of the South African anthropologist James Suzman’s new book, Work: A Deep History, From the Stone Age to the Age of Robots, in which he asks whether we might learn to live like our ancestors did—that is, to value free time over money. Answering that question takes him on a 300-millennium journey through humanity’s existence.

We live in interesting times

the gnome

The manipulation of Bitcoin and alike, by professional traders, and blatant promotion (sometimes by same traders) to leverage the manipuluation has all the odors of a gigantic bubble. My son who is heavy into this, realises this, and has targeted making enough money to fund his retirement for life. So the plan is to steadily take money off the table, and transfer this money into dividend paying ETF's of a certain flavour.

HIs estimate seems to be that he needs another 6-12 months in the crypto market, and he would have made enough to retire and live the dream just outside the city limits, with the bush and kangaroos at his feet. Retirement at 33, no grey hair, no brokers.

Each to their own.

I dreamt of Eldorado, finding gold in the outback.

We each dream.

best
the Gnome

I gave up dealing through brokers over a decade ago, when my second broker gleefully confessed I had paid him to lose my money...but he beat the market....

So its been an onlne broker for me, and I have done very well, but it has taken a tad more engagement. But it is my money, and it seems that I have learnt to manage it very well, as judged by consistently beating the market.

The brokers on Wall Street have had a very good year, egged on by the various stimulus packages, which according to those that know, must keep going!

Continue funding the United States government — or the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic could grind to a halt just as the Delta variant threatens hard-won progress (SOME RECOVERY EH?). That’s the urgent message Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell conveyed to US lawmakers on Tuesday.

They also warned in no uncertain terms about the risks that remain if Congress fails to pass a bill to fund the government and raise the country’s debt ceiling next month.

We are not even close to a real recovery, and the procurement side of business (es) is just getting worse. People dont know whether they are going to get locked up, infected, admitted to hospital (etc)

I think there is a good chance the NEW NORM will be STIMULUS PACKAGES, which is just a tad more aggressive than the ponzi scheme that has been operating for years. V easy to go on the stimulus, v hard to go off it, especially when you have governments which have no experience in handling pandemics, a mass media devoted to hysteria and a compliant herd

Good luck punters

The Gnome

CI

One of my sons has taken to bitcoin/s with a vengance. He does refer to its virtues, and in fact there are a few.

He makes the analogy with how one values modern art. Jeff Koon's Balloon Dog (Orange) sold for $58.4 million at a Christie's New York auction, beating out Gerhard Richter for the title... and how did the buyed ever work that out. Answer? The market worked it out for him, and as the buyer had $58.4 m (most of it coming through Pandora's magic potions, tax havens), and probably the inverse in common sense, we had a willing seller and a willing buyer, and hey presto, money changed hands. Not a lot to it.

Bit like valuing foreign currencies, Answer? let the markets do it...and I will leave it at that

But it doesn't matter what it is your selling. Go to the market, and they will tell you what it is worth. If you dont agree go to the next market, repeat, and on it goes ... where it stops only stupidity knows.

best
the Gnome.

CI, no things have not changed that much in essence. Except that the poms seem to have taken over most of Australian Ports (which aren't owned by the Chinese, LOL)and various Unions (where they sit in airconditioned offices, threaten people daily and push the convicts around a bit more than previously, all for a pretty penny...

cheers

Whilst we all like to think of ourselves, as sane, emminently rational and highly intelligent, the evidence does not seem to support this. I am still plowing through THE PSYCHOLOGY OF STUPIDTY - AS EXPLAINED BY SOME OF THE WORLDS SMARTEST PEOPLE, and I must say it is rather sobering.
As for peoples belief in democracy (admittedly of various flavours) as being the "way to go", the fact that it serves up a never ending set of numb skulls like Boris (and I wont mention the lovable lumps down under) does not seem to be that disturbing? And so back to my Psychology book !

Damn odd place, damn odd race

best the gnome, .... sorry must race back to the pub!

I have my dividend and I near the bus stop at the end of the world. Watch the bankers, and the brokers, and the pollies....

good luck, off to the pub to spend a few bob on a cold beer!

the Gnome

THE ARGUMENTS ABOUT THE LATEST SOCIAL EXPERIMENTS IN THE USA CONTINUE, JUST AS 60,000 PEOPLE GATHER ON THE MEXICO BORDER. GOOD FOR THE US DOLLAR? ALL GOOD FOR GOLD?

Democrats, working to unite around a far-reaching social policy and climate bill, are weighing two different approaches to reduce its overall cost: eliminating proposed programs entirely or cutting their duration.

Democrats’ debate over the two options took on fresh urgency this weekend after President Biden said Friday that they would have to shrink the size of the legislation, projected to spend $3.5 trillion over a decade to expand and create education, healthcare, climate and other programs.

Centrists opposed that amount of spending, questioning the cost and the potential impact on inflation. Mr. Biden told House Democrats that, after negotiations with centrists, he expects the overall tab to fall between $1.9 trillion and $2.3 trillion, according to people familiar with his remarks.

Progressive Democrats, who backed the $3.5 trillion level, acknowledged Sunday the need to scale back the legislation to reach a compromise, though they said there’s no agreement on how much.

SO ON THE SHOW GOES, THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH WITHOUT DOUBT ...

Good luck to us all !

best
The Gnome

What the experts do is spray enough predictions on the GP out over the course of time, that one of them is bound to be right, and then they claim divinity and immortality and so on. Its been going on for a while. I like to do my own research, watch the facts (not the jaw boning) ... money supply, real inflation, real cost increases, procurement/logisitcs, proper measurements of uncertainty...

best

Gold is an odd assett, been around for a long while..and it appears to do very well under a number of different investment environments (not all, but more than most other asset classes)

Valuing it is interesting, as it has so many different appeals, that it can be valued in many different ways...

The price of gold has increased substantially over the past 50 years, notably since 1970 when the us$ pegging of gold was lifted. Interesting to note the Two-tier gold system, an arrangement set up to protect international monetary reserves from the pressure of higher gold prices; under a two-tier system, monetary gold used as reserves would sell at a fixed price, and gold used as an ordinary commodity would sell at a freely fluctuating market-determined price. Abandoned in 1972, when gold was largely left to float on the market, although one wonders how free the market is, and how fair, transparent etc, and whether the proponents of the 2 tier system are still playing a game.

Like most commodities supply and demand is incredibly important, Mining supply is now led by China, and they dont sell much!? Otherwise gold reserves are shrinking, gold exploration is becoming less successful, and one can easily reason supply side will dwindle in the coming decade.

but gold also retains additional value. Government vaults and central banks comprise one important source of demand for the metal....central banks of Hungary and Thailand, who added 63 tonnes in March and 43.5 tonnes in April, and purchasing continues ... and continues ... why?

Demand: Investment demand, especially from large ETFs, is another factor underlying the price of gold. ETF purchases in US went negative in August, after weakeming in June and July. Arguments about strengthening US economy, and US$? Cant really believe the reasoning? but then tis makes me a gold bug LOL

Gold sometimes moves opposite to the U.S. dollar because the metal is dollar-denominated, making it a hedge against inflation. The M2 money supply has gone into the stratosphere, and no end in sight here, velocity through the floor, and more info at link https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-money-supply-vs-inflation/

I think Gold is always seen as a real asset, and it appears so much in our speech and thoughts...imagine winning the Bitcoin Medal for coming first in the Olympics?

enjoy

best
the Gnome

V interesting video on gold investing .....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHdHgygLZ-A