Member Info for goldgnome

Thanks CI
Probably think they are candid. Consider some of the options on the 10 years underground minelife

1. Could produce 100k pa for 10 years...implies a PandP Reserve of 1 m ozs
2. Could produce 50 k pa for 10 years...implies a PandP Reserve of 500k ozs [and of course this only requires to find another 100k ounces, as they have 400k ounces now?

Given the preparation that must have gone onto make such a professional presentation, I assume this is just an oversight. I would also assume theya re targetting 1 m ozs, and an annual production form underrground of 100k ozs pa.

I think we are in safe hands, and that this managment looks to be kilometers in front of the previous buffoon like creatures.

Allways very easy to skim the cream, which is what they did.

But I am interested in the style of underground mining that may provide the best ROI (etc).

Both assets in Cote Ivoire look eniticing for more upside, and if they are smart and use some new technology, their time lines to production may shrink

best
the Gnome

For those that missed it, the statement is they will develop a MINIMUM UNDERGROUND RESOURCE of 10 YEARS!

At present they have 400k ounces underground, so my GUESS is that this needs to be expanded by factors of at least 2.
HOWEVER when stating this one needs to consider waht the imlied prodcution rate is ging to be to be profitable. So digging a bit, there is an assumption possible, that all of the capital of the mine is paid off, which is reasonable, so we are dealing just operating capital and operational expenses, so in this scenario the break even grades must be lower..etc......but bottom line, what is Martin saying? How much per annum production, how much EBITda margin...just what is the game....saying 10 years undeground needs a lot more narrative around it.

still listening, but Martin maybe up for a few more questions

best
the Gnome

The presentation was at the upper levels of presentations that I have seen by a major gold mining company. IN fact any company. I have no seen the entire session, but viewed the pdf, and the last 15 minutes.

My read of the Resource and Reserve figures are such that I would be surprised if there is not 20 more years of mining within the Sukari license. They are right to resource this properly on the mining lease and the work presented was solid, and their approach is what is required. The Geology is compelling, and very well presented. The first slide is somewhat hard to get past, rarely see gold like that, but when you do think money.

So from a high flying point of view, they appear to have the people, the ground, the money, the right processes and the right managment people and processes.

All looks very good. Will view more later

the Gnome

PS. Be great to see some fo the other companies open up like this. Barricks and B2 presentations are not up to scratch w.r.t Geology.

I missed it, being in the wrong time zone, and traveling with my wife ?! Tried to login but the web site said to wait for the archive, which I am doing. Talk is good, and goals are better (dates, things) but walking the atlk and meeting the gioals is what has to happen

best
the gnome

Thanks Cowichan

The terribly incomplicated thing in Burkina is that if you are poor you have very little chance...unless you pick up a gun.
If you are a poor woman, well...a lot less of a chance.

If the terrorists and poor robbers don't do you over, the rich robbers will.

Fills me with despair.

And dont ever wind me up about the International Criminal Court...still no satisfaction on the assasination of President Thomas Sankara,

the Gnome

I think one has to be careful as to what is happening

1. No scientific report has been produced to the owners off CEY as to the Geomet. Where were the samples taken, how did they know the samples were representative and so on...

2. No map has been provided to owners (us) as to what tenements are still owned by the owners.

3. There are gold occurrences north of Konkera, which are along a crustal scale NS fault. These were held and mined by relatives of the past President fo Burkina Faso. [ The presidents relatives reportedly ran a thriving gold business (which benefited them and not the populace), and rumour is they captured all of the gold from the small scale and artisinal mining groups in Burkina. Sadly a lot of the small scale mining in the northern parts of the country went into other hands https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-africa-islamists-special-report-idUSKBN1XW11F Sadly most of the small scale gold is smuggled out of the country illegally, avoiding benefit to the people. Sadly Burkina Faso remiains impoverished. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/gold-africa-smuggling/ ]

But if it was not for large scale gold mining the country wold be a lot lot poorer.

Enough said.

best
the gnome

There is smoe new assay technology, which cold greatly aid CEY and any gold miner. Enables parts per billion gold assays, same day for a greatly reduced cost.
https://portableppb.com/files/1_detectORE_Overview_Website_April2021.pdf

Knowing where gold is, in real time almost, increase engagemeng and allows one ot find gold a lot quicker

bet
the gnome

best
the gnome

Cowichan

Thats interesting if CEY have droped all of the ground, becuase there are different styles of gold mineralisation in the Batie area. I have not seen any believable evidence that it all is refractory. I could have missed something. But then again so cold they, and I have seen many times that companies have based their Geomet on less than 0.001% of the total volume of the resources. Syama was a famous cse in point, done by no other than BHP

best
the gnome

Yes, thanks CI. Its not so much the debt now, but the strategy going forward, and the ability to execute the strategy. It does appear to some tht the USA is so divided, that they are only marginally sort of Civil War. The Bernie Sanders coalition of the least able, is one case in point. On the other hand, productivty gains? Achived through the internet? What real productivity gain does Facebook drive? How many buy something advertised on Facebook? Who really knows?

Have you plotted the price of gold versus the debt ceiling hikes?

The latest letter is at
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Debt-Limit-Letter-to-Congress_20210908_FINAL-Pelosi.pdf
best
the Gnome

Yellen has argued that the US Congress had raised or suspended the country’s debt ceiling about 80 times since 1960, and must do so again! and why not, its the only ting they can do!?

Even though the US government is now only weeks away from defaulting on its debt for the first time – which would, as Yellen warned, probably trigger a meltdown in financial markets – investors have been remarkably calm.
Obviously, yields on long-term US bonds would rise if investors were forced to factor in some default risk.

But even a drawn-out battle over the debt ceiling could lead to another downgrade of the US credit rating, which would also probably push US bond yields higher.

Because the US government is running such massive budget deficits, a spike in borrowing costs – either from an actual default or from a protracted fight over the debt ceiling – will add to its debt servicing costs.

The US budget deficit is expected to swell to $US3 trillion in fiscal 2021 – or roughly 13.4 per cent of GDP – as a result of the stimulus measures Washington adopted to soften the economic impact of the pandemic.

And people think there is a rational basis for gold price in terms of US$ (any $ in fact) is going to go down?

US Congress is so divided and so partisan that rationality doesn’t prevail, and thats been going on for sometime now. No sign of change. No reason to be confident it will change.

And coming up ... Bernie Sanders’s $3.5 Trillion Budget Bonanza
Democrats want free everything with no accountability. Higher taxes will follow, and why not? whats the choice?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-budget-spending-taxes-trillion-11628547479

good luck to us all!

best
the gnome

Why not, continues the theme of rivalry between the US and China...knows no bounds.

Chinese property giant Evergrande is being picked over by outside advisers who are trying to untangle more than $400 billion of debt (How could it grow to this level?)

One of the nation's largest real estate developers, the company claims to own more than "1,300 projects in more than 280 cities in China and is a forerunner in delivering all houses with fine decoration".

And until this year, Chinese property was booming.

Demand for real estate in mega-cities Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou drove prices to among the most expensive in the world.

Evergrande took out loan after loan to meet demand. Checks and balances please?

But then came falling property prices in smaller cities and a series of government measures aimed at cracking down on excessive borrowing in the real estate sector.

Economists say the potential collapse of the company could "be the biggest test that China's financial system has faced in years."

In its wake, thousands of Evergrande's investors, suppliers and employees of the sinking company are hoping the government steps in to help them get their money back. The Govt seems to step in a lot these days, with other peoples money, creating debt of a different kind (but debt is OK as long as it is in your own currency/country, so they have learnt well from the USA)

So far, Beijing continues to hold a firm line against such a decision.

Beijing draws three red lines? Why red?
Evergrande's woes began when Beijing slapped strict rules on the Chinese real estate industry last August.

Known as the 'Three Red Lines' limit, the rules were aimed at reining in debt and making real estate more affordable for the average Chinese family...sound familiar, replay US Cinton's regime...subprime part 2?

Revision:

Under Clinton’s Housing and Urban Development (HUD) secretary, Andrew Cuomo, Community Reinvestment Act regulators gave banks higher ratings for home loans made in “credit-deprived” areas. Banks were effectively rewarded for throwing out sound underwriting standards and writing loans to those who were at high risk of defaulting. If banks didn’t comply with these rules, regulators reined in their ability to expand lending and deposits.

These new HUD rules lowered down payments from the traditional 20 percent to 3 percent by 1995 and zero down-payments by 2000. What’s more, in the Clinton push to issue home loans to lower income borrowers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made a common practice to virtually end credit documentation, low credit scores were disregarded, and income and job history was also thrown aside. The phrase “subprime” became commonplace.

and on the show goes, why dont we learn? why dont they learn? this time it will be different

I think I will join Mr Bond, and take a morning nap, before trading starts in ernest.

best
the Gnome

Goodnight MrBond, sleep well.

Cowichan

CEY certainly do not communicate their brownfields exploration strategy very well, let alone results. Being a long term member of the Cynics and Skeptics fraternity, I hope this does not mean they do not have such a strategy. Be nice if they could explain it clearly to the owners of the company (us!), so we could better understand one important organic growth path of the company. Not explaining this clearly does mean there will be little premium attached to CEY shares, in my view.

Seismic was flavour of the month (actually a few years) in Oz, yielding some fantastic new insights into geology and new ore positions..and new discoveries. It looks like CEY participated in this (seismic surveying), but what happened? Results? Follow through? The Pardey gush and bluff moved on...

I have asked some questions of the CEO in this area, and they have been acknowledged and are about to be answered, I am all ears!

The CEO would be wise to answer, carefully and to act effectively and quickly in this area.

best

The Gnome

Interesting sell off at the end of the day, which does not seem to be correlated to POG moves? (check this as I am in different time zone)

Reminds me of some similar moves seen in the ASX sometime ago, always at the end of the day..almost last trades. It turned out the ASX were onto such REPEATED shenanikans, and caught the offenders who were trying to prove a point...in this case it was a sell up, such that the graph of end of sales SP was always up (despite the downs during the day). The offenders enjoyed accomodation at the cost of the state for year or so, and life went on!

I do however get the firm view that there are some distortions in the market. Gold miners down, anything to do with lithium up up, nickel up, uranium up, iron ore up up and now down down, gas, and so on.

Interesting to look at the Uranium market, and the change in market structure, initiated by the Sprott Trust. The uranium market is an odd one, influenced by the utilities buying strategies and programs, which has (nearly) always run at the pace the utilities want. But its a relatively small market, and as such, games can be played, and of course they are all legal.
Sprott chief executive said the physical uranium trust that Sprott launched in August would help rebalance the 180m-lb-a-year uranium market — driving prices to a level that spurred greater production of the radioactive material. Great cause? Or is it? Who benefits and is the benefit fair and reasonable?

Pity someone else doesn't try and bring a new structure to the gold market, so that it benefits the (more) deserved, and the benefits are fair and reasonable to a larger % of the market particpants. The present opaque machinations that pass for a market, is neither fair nor reasonable, one could argue. Its a pity the POG is such a ready reckoner of the continual debasement of the US dollar ( a decline of more than ninety-eight percent in its purchasing power over the last 100 years, no less?). History would tell one, that one has to be careful with causing too much debasement too quickly, and social ruptures and revolutions can start. Best to shave a little gold off the coin that does the rounds...and so it is with inflation, which is what some look at for evidence of a little shave...but as one does know there is inflation! and inflation? and then there are the price increases that effect your wallet.
Is it not surprising that the Fed is planning to tolerate higher inflation than its historically preferred level of 2%. All things equal, the more inflation there is, the faster that public debt to GDP reduces, otherwise what do they do?

More money printed, more productivity? in times of burgeoning bureacracy? increasing mountains of red tape? incr govt?

Anyone else got clues as to the price drop at end of day?

best
the Gnome

There is a case in point unwinding in Australia , where an old mine, valued at A$290m, is coming to life again with new owners, new insights of geology etc in a company called 29Metals which now enjoys a Market Cap of A$1.14billion

When EMR (buyers, who then vended it into 29Metals) secured this asset some four years ago it had a mine life of only 3 years, it only had about 3 million tonnes in reserves.

Today it’s got a 10 year mine life, it’s got 13Mt in reserves, it’s got a copper equivalent grade of over 4% because we produce copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver there, and a copper grade of over 4% is just outstanding.

With these systems and it’s a VMS system, they just keep on giving. Golden Grove has been going for over 30 years and whilst we’ve got a 10 year mine life now it’s almost certainly going to go for a lot longer than that.

Peter Albert filled a gap for investors earlier this year when he led a collection of privately held copper assets onto the ASX under the banner of 29Metals, and, based on drilling results from last week, the company is fast filling another important gap.

The 29Metals team drilled six holes into a section of earth positioned between three pods of known resource at the company’s flagship Golden Grove mine in Western Australia.

While it is early days, the mineralisation found in those “Cervantes” holes has raised hopes that the geological system at Golden Grove is larger, richer and more connected than was previously understood.

So who got the value right? Who got the value wrong?

The value of CEY, which is producing, profitably, which has money in the bank, and will expand its ore reserves and ore resources ... etc .... is very undervalued, but do your own calculations and research

best
the Gnome

I am not sure where Boris gets his credibility from, which I presume is what attracts voters to vote for him. Comes across
as complete buffoon.
buffoon /b?'fu?n/

noun
"a ridiculous but amusing person; a clown."
whereas git, is a bit soft..
"an unpleasant or contemptible person."

although would undoubtedly have strong odours of a git ..perhaps he is a buffit, or a giffoon

Our buffoons down under are arguing amongst themselves as to who we should buy 8 submarines from, to make us self sufficent in defending 25,000 kilomers of coast line LOL. [About one sub every 3,000+ kms] IN so doing they have caused high anxiety amongst most of our Asian neighbours, again angered our chief trading partner (China), insulted the French who have in turn spat the dummy and pulled their well padded amabassador back to the Sienne, and incurred another mountain range of debt for the next generations.

The good news down here is that Sydney has won the gold medal for the most locked down city, heading for 260 days of lockdown [not sure why they dont go for the full year?]

Last week, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg agreed it might be a good idea to conduct a review of the Reserve Bank, given it had consistently failed to meet its key inflation and wages targets for the past five years, although he admitted it had performed "very well through this crisis"...by piling up debt and facilitating future tax for the next few generations to the max...but thats what the central banks do, after all its other peoples money.

Must keep a sense of humour, the alternative hurts too much

have a great week, and may the those in power be kind to the underlings
the gnome

Its another breathless day on Wall Street, and those that know the game are playing harder, and setting more records. Sadly the game is the same, and we know how this ends.

Wall Street’s shift away from Libor is fueling sales in the red-hot market for bundles of risky corporate loans.

Managers of collateralized loan obligations (CLO)—securities made up of bundled loans with junk credit ratings—are rushing to close deals ahead of the year-end move away from the London interbank offered rate. The interest-rate benchmark underpins trillions of dollars of financial contracts but was scheduled for phaseout after a manipulation scandal (or 2, or 3).

That is helping push CLO sales to records. U.S. issuance topped $19.2 billion in August, a monthly record in data going back a decade, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s LCD.

A strong U.S. economic recovery and support from the Federal Reserve has improved the prospects for many low-rated companies (some would get no rating [and no loans] if rational decision makers were at the helm, without conflicts etc etc) borrowing through the [highly] leveraged loan market, which is often used by private-equity firms to finance acquisitions (and we know what happens when they start using OTHER PEOPLES MONEY [ private equity seems to be a euphenism for other peoples money], it's a drug, we can't stop, as long as we make the cuts to ourselves larger and larger..because we deserve it)). That marks a reversal after the pandemic’s outbreak fueled worries about mass defaults and sent prices for riskier debt plummeting in 2020...and like all reversals, there is also an opposite and more significant reversal to follow!!!

As of August, sales of new CLOs in the U.S. in 2021 have surpassed $111 billion, according to LCD—on pace to pass 2018’s record of around $129 billion.

The move away from Libor also means that some CLO securities may have a different benchmark rate from the loans in their collateral pool. That makes it more difficult for investors to protect their holdings against fluctuations in interest rates and underlying loan prices.

And the interesting variable is interest rates. They cannot go down, and it is very likely they will go up. The question is how much large can the interest payments grow to before there are defaluts, a failure, a Lehmans, and away we go again

And we are/were meant to be the intelligent species. Little evidence for this. Stay close to gold

Its inert, and can't be manufactured at will, and again and again...
Beautiful, stable and serene
has millenia transcending appeal

One could not trust the papers, the snake oil guys, the pollies, etc ...

best
the gnome.

Someone asked about valuing a Mining Company....what a subject!, many a good person has been embarassed at doing this. Have a look at the plethora of disasterous acquisitions...Some do it very well

But simply I see it as having a rational component and an emotional/irrational exuberance component.

The RATIONAL side is relatively simple, and here are few linkages.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/mining-asset-valuation-techniques/
https://microcap.co/how-to-value-a-mining-company-part-i-gold/

IN short you calculate all of the future cash flows bought forward by assume a future interest rate(!?), and we have some more interesting assumptions for long life mines like, foreign exchange, metal price, tax stability, costs (etc), but you can load them all into a well structured spreadsheet, and get some degree of comfort?

The IRRATIONAL part, is that value due to exploration success, and market exuberance/emotions. This is where there are wide variations, very poor constraints and lots of emotions, bravado and stupiditiy mixed with incompetence.

Rio buying ALCAN for $38b
Barricks (Gold) takeover of Equinox (Copper) for $8b ?!
Kinross Gold $7b acquistion of Red Back Minng (bought 2010, almost 100% written down 2014!)
and so on, the cupboard is well stocked...

1. Exploration success is a function of
a. endowment of the earth.
b. being able to find the commercial parts of the mineral endowment quickly. This depends on the type of orebody (for example if it is magnetic, then you can use magnetic surveys, and these are fast, cheap, easy to do) and you can get very fast results. An example of this would be Iron Oxide Gold Deposits, like Olympic Dam, in South Australia. Because these deposits have a distinct magnetic and gravity signature, the mining company found 12 deposits in 3 years within 26,000 km2. It also depends on the type of technology, and the ability of the exploration management and team to deploy the exploration technology correctly (right tool in wrong hands syndrome)

Then we have the madness and emotion buried in the market place, the dodgy shorters, the longers, the lemmings and the maddening surge of masses of exuberant rumours, inuendo and exagerated market response to surprise news (good or bad, and maybe some can remember the poseidon nickel boom in Australia...If you cant, here is a quick look
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poseidon_bubble

Then you also have the "players" like Robert Friedland, and its worth revisiting the Voisey Bay sale, Basically sold for $4.3b without any mine financed and built. ... back in the days when a dollar was worth a lot more than now!!!! (1995 - need $1.80 now to purchse same $1 value)
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-story-of-voiseys-bay-the-discovery-1-of-3/?utm_source=Visual+Capitalist+Infographics

prob does not help?
the gnome

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/valuation/mining-

CI

I got an email from CEY, from the Corporate Communications mManager. Try
Alexandra@centaminplc.com

Which thread would be more appropriate to post your questions on in regard to Centamin?

cheers
the gnome

Cowichan..

Quite a few dogs down under, all gold miners! to put it mildly. Gold spot down by 2.3% but Gold Futures down by...not much....

So great time for the long term investors to take a position in a profitable gold mining company, no debt, no exposure to interest rate, positive change management coming down the back straight. Evolution Mining down 26% year to date, Northern Star down 29% YTD, St Barbara down 39% YTD Tough life for all gold miners at the moment...but watch the gold futures, the AISC margins, and EXPLORATION SUCCESS!!!

So winners on the gold EXPLORATION front, Predictive Discovery PDI:ASX great discovery in Guinea..took 15 years but thats life in the exploration business....Benz Mining BNZ:ASX Canada, African Gold A1G:ASX Cote IVoire and Mali to name a few ...

IN sharp contrast... 678 pre-revenue explorers on the ASX raised $2.54 billion in the June quarter (!!??), the third consecutive period of record cash inflows following low interest rates and soaring prices for commodities such as lithium, zinc, copper, nickel, coking coal, thermal coal, aluminium and uranium to name a few (gold missing)...and you can guess how many of these will be absolute dogs in the next 1-3 years. Some are nothing a re-hash of some deep low margin mines, long passed their use by dates. Some do OK...with near mine exporation success...see 29metals,

So Dogger sounds a bit down, hopefully he has a diversified portfolio. My Uranium stocks are going great, and my Sydney Airport shares also, up 50% in last 12 months...we are about to sell our main airport to global Infrastructure, not sure why we muck around worrying about having a defense force, everything worhtwhile is getting sold to foreign interests LOL. I do feel sorry for the French with their submarine building ... but when push comes to shove, they are ... French ...

best
the gnome