Member Info for goldgnome

The workings of the artisinal can sometimes be very misleading. I was involved in a gold rush of about 20-25,000 artisinal miners over running an area. Fever pitch stuff. We caught the fever, and first pass drill program was quickly put together, ...no doubt they were after high grade gold, 10+ gpt Au, but we couldnt make it hang together with a decent strip ratio. One needs to be very measured in going into such areas, and look at the fluid wall rock alteration, in terms of extent, type and grade...lots of spectualar pictures....lot of money been lost in these sort of ventures...
One of the largest artisinal programs I have ever seen was at Fetekole in northern BUrkina Faso. Tourmaline+Qtz+sericite+biotite alteration by the bucket lodes, over 250 wide and about 4 kms long, so many workings it looked like the surafce of the moon. BHP, Resolute and many others got sucked into the workings. Yes there was gold in the system, but it just didn't bulk up for modern day open pit mining.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285929315_The_Guibare_and_Fete_Kole_gold-bearing_tourmaline-quartz_veins_in_the_Birimian_greenstone_belts_of_Burkina_Faso
The artisinals are still chipping away, and some Junior explorer will "discover it again", lovely photos, juicy rock chips, new geological theory, request for OPM's and on the circus goes...
best
the gnome

Having been shocked by the amount of money that has run into the crypto space, there is in fact money running all over the place, trying to look for a fabulous home. The Venture Capitalists are out in force, with their shotgun approach (they dont talk about this much, ... one 10 bagger and 9 scrubbers, and sometimes 0 10 baggers and 10 scrubbers, but they talk about this less) and so many others to help invest the money floating around. Of course it is OTHER PEOPLES MONEY, AND MUCH OF IT THE TAX PAYERS ARE ON THE HOOK FOR...but please dont worry we are all in good hands.

SPACs [Special Purpose Acquisition Companies] are v interesting and have been raising funds faster than ever before! (seems that there is more money been printed than ever before, but lets not go there) In 2020, SPACs raised close to USD 100 billion in public offerings, which is more than in the prior 10 years combined ; the average IPO size also doubled from 2019. On July 22, 2020, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management raised USD 4 billion in the IPO of Pershing Square Tontine Holdings Ltd., recording the largest SPAC IPO to date. OK billions not trillions, but the world is flush with cash. It is NOT flush with great investment opportuntiies, and as such we see grossly distorted P/E ratios and an ever spiralling NON TANGIBLES (because like Elon Mush we are now all going to the moon [and then what happens?] LOL)

So in all the rushing and gushing, it still turns out that making about 8% pa over 10 years is a very solid return. (John Bogle was right.). So if one can build on the say 5 % div from CEY and catch a 3 % growth pa, then you are in a good space?
[But of course this does not pay the salary and bonus of Bobby Broker, and the managers of the hedge funds and SPAC's etc etc]

best
the gnome

USA: U.S. stock futures wobbled ahead of corporate results that will provide insight into the effects on the technology industry of inflation and supply-chain disruptions, including from the global chip shortage.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 oscillated between small gains and losses, ticking up less than 0.1% Wednesday and pointing to the broad-market index hovering after a five-day rally. It closed up 0.7% Tuesday, notching its highest close in six weeks. Tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 futures were also relatively flat Wednesday.

Elon Musk has already become the world’s richest person on the ascendancy of Tesla But it will be SpaceX, rather than the hyped electric-car maker, that lifts him to trillionaire status, according to a Morgan Stanley analyst. (Tesla wont be able to compete, and has had issues delivering...and thats before its great expansion, lots of froth and bubbles!)

... FUNDIES POSITION: almost half of those surveyed nominated inflation as their top tail risk, followed by China and asset bubbles; COVID-19 has been relegated to only the fifth-biggest worry.

AUS: IPO's by the hundreds, most in the metal area dusting off old projects which have been around, some a few times, and which should not be dusted and will not make a decent ROI. BUt you cant keep an old project down for long...investors have short memories, change the project name etc ...yawn.

....expectations build about a flood of gold sector M&A deals, as cashed-up mid-cap players looking to pounce on smaller neighbours. Already in recent weeks, St Barbara has made a move on $100 million junior Kin Mining, while Westgold Resources is trying to swallow Gascoyne.

...Bellevue Gold, fresh from raising $200 million debt and up to $130 million equity to get to first production, is potentially in the firing line, and is understood to have called in Goldman Sachs’ bankers to help shore up its defences.

Bellevue Gold reckons it is building one of the highest grade, lowest cost mines in Australia that could produce more than 200,000 ounces of gold in its first five years and 183,000 ounces over eight years.

Meanwhile, Gascoyne’s spurned suitor Westgold is ready to ramp up its fight. It’s expected to disclose the support of Gascoyne’s 10 per cent shareholder First Sentier in a bidder’s statement this week, at the same time that it has the Takeovers Panel mulling the situation.

All fairly predictable stuff, but the SP of CEY is not that predictable. Hope the reggulators are awake, but they have a reputation of being asleep at the wheel, is what was told to me in the local tavern.

best of luck all

Whilst I dont think this would happen in the well regulated market in London, there is a lot of furtive activity in the colonies ...still.

Securities regulator ASIC has renewed its war on penny stock pumpers by again posting messages to a "Telegram group" made up by retail and professional traders and warning them of illegal behaviour.

On Tuesday morning ASIC joined the ‘ASX Pump Organization’ channel in its own name at the 10am AEDT market open to warn its 400-odd members against trying to pump the price of penny stock Magnis Energy Technologies higher.

“We’re monitoring this channel and we may be investigating you. Remember - you run the risk of a criminal record, including fines and prison time by being involved in pump and dump campaigns,” ASIC warned. “We can see all trades and have access to trader identities. We can identify underlying clients and networks of connected parties, and can also analyse trading patterns.”

ASIC first stunned market watchers by taking the unprecedented step of posting a message to a pump and dump-aligned chat group on October 11. The regulator warned the group’s members organised share price manipulation is illegal.

On September 9, Telegram groups succeeded in pushing shares in gold miner Australasian Gold Limited 84 per cent higher over around 15 minutes from the market open. Those groups had around 1600 members and organisers displayed some sophistication in planning to target less liquid stocks to allow artificial buying pressure to increase the price further.

and on the circus goes...one would naieve not to think this does not happen a bit further up the tree, so to speak. The names of the players change, and the scale, and the game is slightly different ... and of course the regulator is more on the ball???

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the gnome

The question from the bus stop near the end of the world (Oz), is there some pressure/s on the SP to stay low? I can't see the info that may shed some light on this, but to look at "end games" that may see the SP hovering like it seems to be, after solid news...

1. A large shareholder is selling out, and needs to do so quickly ... perhaps needs the cash, portfolio rebalance. Silly if thissi the case, as the best way to sell a large position is by off market trade through a well networked broker. Major shareholder could be Pardy? El-Raghy? Insto?

2. A company wishing to make an aquisition, is fuding trades to keep the price low, in the hope that a low bid would be attractive, after a suitable period of time of price suppression. Any of the large gold companies might have a tingle at this.

thoughts others, evidence of this from those who have closer access to market stats? Or am I off the mark?

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the gnome.

Liberum's agenda is simple

x% cut on any buy (other peoples money) they make
x% cut on any sell

doesnt matter a lot if it goes up or down, but sometimes the brokers recomend to sell what they want to buy and on the game goes.

so a cynical man like me might think they have got set after shaking the tree with their 82p, and now they will recomend a higher price, and on the circus goes...

Solid report. Solid mngt, steady hands, steady ship. Building trust. Get one's eye in, so to speak.

Good lot of exploration ground,

I suspect they might play the cover drive in Dec 1.

best
the gnome.

MandA activity occurs in waves in the gold mining industry. Like a rinse. Its the preferred and only way to grow, after a company gets to a certain size. Discoveries need to be very big to make any SP impact on the large companies,and these are not happening, and havent for a decade now. No end in sight to the dearth of big discoveries.

Have a look at the below link if you have not seen this
https://minexconsulting.com/trends-in-gold-exploration-with-a-special-focus-on-quantifying-discovery-performance/

There are other interesting publications

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the gnome...

The MandA growth machine is starting up, and the gold industry is up for it, as usual. Exploration results not good enough to drive the SP of the miners...

Apollo consolidated just been brought for $160m oz, has a RESOURCE of 1.1 m ozs (mostly indicated category), no plant and equipment, not even a preliminary economic study. Begs the question of the value of CEY with 10m ozs RESERVES, plant, equipment, operating etc etc?
https://www.rameliusresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/bsk-pdf-manager/2021/10/Corporate-Presentation-Tokyo-Acquisition-Final.pdf

Other smallish mergers

Sept 2021 AngloGold Ashanti Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Corvus and Consolidate the Beatty District of Nevada

SEPTEMBER 7, 2021
Aquila Resources to Be Acquired by Gold Resource Corporation to Form Diversified North American Precious and Base Metals Producer

Previous larger mergers
C$33b Kirkland Lake Gold merger with Agnico Eagle Mines
A$16b merger Saracen and Northern Star Resources announced the plan in October 2020

Even the Royalty companies are doing it!

Gold Royalty, Abitibi Royalties & Golden Valley to Combine to Create a Leading Growth and Americas-Focused Precious Metals Royalty Company

Interesting to watch, perhaps coming to your screen soon?

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the gnome

Yes, Thanks CI

One of the remarkable figures (and there are a few there!) is the premium for Rio. Blowing up sacred caves, blowing out the project in Mongolia, no resolution at Resolution...and so on

remarkable stuff

best
the gnome

I have come to wonder, under the tutillage of one of my sons, why I bother to follow, consider and invest in companies that do things rather than, just speculate, amass intangibles, and otherwise have a good time using freelancer and a couple of wild ideas (bouncing over a few hurdles). Mining companies do the mining, but can they sell, when they want, at the price they want, and so cometh the commodity traders, royalty companies and a streaming affair. Lots of optionalities have evolved.

Mining companies do need to get a lot smarter than they are, and have been. Perhaps CEY will get there. The restructure of the Uranium market is an intersting event. Thanks Sprott, glad I was there.

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the gnome.

The merger is an option to watch

The inputs to decision making.

1. P/E ratio. The guys with low P/E's (CEY) are taken ovre byt he guys with high P/E's as a rule of thumb. CEY P/E = approx 10. Companies with greater P/E's are ... DYOR

2. So the other factors that impact, are earnings growth, resource growth, management, exploration s$x appeal and ..performance!, sustainability... etc

So the above hints at the game in play, and when the whistle blows, who knows, but the shareholders do count...

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the gnome

In a recent analysis...

Between 1995 and 2015, the share of intangible asset market value increased from 68% to 84%. In July, Ocean Tomo updated the IAMV Study to investigate the economic effects of the novel coronavirus. We find that COVID-19 has accelerated the trend of increasing IAMV share, with intangible assets now commanding over 90% of the S&P500 market value.

Translating onto the Oz ASX market, total asset value of $1.6 trillion, so the intangible asset share is $1.4 trillion. Ever seen what happens to a house of cards? Well its not all that bad. But it certainly is not all that good.
https://www.oceantomo.com/intangible-asset-market-value-study/
And the value of CEY. There are endless posts which calculate using tangible assets? But this is only the POTENTIAL tip of the ice berg! Are they undervaluingCEY by...a lot?

Suggest the value driven investor pay more attention to real assets, because when the SH@t hits the fan, you know what will get devalued.

best

the gnome

Sadly the sambalism we see in Oz pops up elsehwere. Now the judiciary in the USA!

Mary Geiger Lewis acquired Walmart Inc. stock. Charles Norgle Sr. reported nearly a dozen buys and sells of Pfizer Inc. shares. Charles Siragusa had two accounts that bought Medtronic PLC stock.

None of that would be a problem, except for this: All are federal judges, and at the time of the trades, all were hearing cases involving those companies.

The Wall Street Journal discovered this trading in a broad investigation that identified 131 federal judges who heard hundreds of cases between 2010 and 2018 involving companies in which they or a family member owned stock—in violation of federal law and judicial-ethics rules.

Judges Lewis, Norgle and Siragusa were among 61 judges who didn’t just own stocks of companies that were litigants in their courtrooms. Accounts held by the judges or their families traded shares as suits were progressing, the Journal’s investigation found. Nearly half of the judges reported more than one trade while a case was in progress.

The stupditity that passes for politics in Australia has now lept to dizzying heights. At keast its now hilarious, and there is some value in keeping the population in humour? (feed them bread, wine and a circus or 2)

The PM has announced he is opening Australia borders to the rest of the world, but did not talk to the state premiers. The new NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet returned the favour by announcing his government would be removing both quarantine requirements and caps on overseas arrivals from November 1.

Perrottet didn’t mention it to any of the other states either of course, leaving the country in an apparently ludicrous shambles of restrictions: as many people have pointed out, of being able to travel from Sydney to Paris, but not Brisbane, Perth, Tasmania, the Northern Territory or even Canberra.

The State Premier for Victoria who a few months ago locked down (and crippled the economy) the state of Victoria for have a few covid infections (and won the gold medal for the most lockdown days in the world!), is now opening the state up, when they passed over 2,000 infections and more than 5 deaths per day.

These are the people who design and define our economy, and have been busy patting each on the back for their economic management which would have been a joke if it was not for China's insatiable appetitte for red dirt with iron (which all we have to do is blow it up [hopefully avoiding caves and indgenous scared sites?), shovel into a truck, onto a train to the port and cheque is in the mail)..and it certainly is a joke for all of the new generation/s who will have to pay off the bucket loads of debt for the next 40 years.

Now we have insulted the French, got the Chinese government offside, by paying billions of dollars to put a nuclear submarine to patrol each 8,000 kms of coast line, to defend out country. (8 subs 34, 000 of coast line) The pity is the war is all but over, as the country's main assets are already in the hands of foreigners of all flavours.

And the thinking person is left to work out how much the fiat dollar will buy in the future?
Answer: A lot less than what it buys now.

havagoodweekend, and dont take everything you read too seriously, espcially it is appears courtesy of the main stream mess, sorry I meant press!

Inflation is all around us...and its a good ploy to have exposure to gold or a gold miner with no debt, no royalties, good managment, 10 year plus reserves ... and exploration upside

the gnome

Hard to argue that inflation has not taken hold. Energy prices up, rents up, housing prices up, like to buy a farm in Oz then think big money, food prices are up,. And on the other side, jobs more insecure, businesses still on government support, logistics slow and high in price, hard to get what you need in manufacturing, and so on.
Tried to open a bank account recently. We are up to 3 weeks now on opening a simple business account. The know your customer stuff is looking daunting...productivty gains?
Uncertainty is on the increase, with Biden teetering, Trump starting to emerge, we have a federal election downunder, and the states are still as united as ever, with "Gollum" almost threatenting to take West Australia out of the Federation. (He might want ot fix the appallling state of the health system in West Oz first, land access is a huge issue for explorers here as well - in fact one friend has just clicked over 2.5 years to NOT get a clearance to do exploration in Western Australia - and the cost of running a Junior Exploration company, with all of the governance requirements, accounts, admin etc now running at over $3,000 per day just to keep the lights on...
When you dont have trust in a business the costs go through the roof. When complaince regualtions are being structured to stop the endless gaming of the system, the costs and delays go through the roof.

good luck all,
we may need it.
Your faithfull correspondent downunder, who is punting on gold!
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the gnome

POwell has also said a lot of other things most of which have been shown to be wrong or misleading. His predictions of inflation are a case in point, and his light touch, is almost rudderless in a sea of change. Warren has said she will oppose a second term for Powell, arguing that the loving light touch approach to bank regulation made him a “dangerous man” to lead the central bank. She has also attacked Powell for not preventing top Fed officials from trading the markets in early 2020 (one could imagine this as the thin edge of the wedge?), at a time when the Fed was working out ways to stem a vicious sell-off in equity and bond markets.

Robert ******, who HEADED the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, made multiple million-dollar plus trades in individual stocks last year (he needed the $$), while Eric Rosengren, who HEADED the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, traded securities related to the real estate industry. (I HAVE POSTED PREVIOUSLY ABOUT FISH RITTING FROM THE HEAD)

The trading sparked a widespread outcry because it occurred when the Fed intervened heavily to shore up financial markets, potentially (??!!) giving the senior officials privileged information into what would happen to asset prices.

Both men abruptly resigned from their roles as regional presidents, with ****** acknowledging the trading controversy as the reason for his departure, while Rosengren said he was leaving for health reasons (high blood pressure?). But the Fed soon found itself embroiled in a fresh scandal, when it emerged that Richard Clarida, its vice chairman, shifted between $US1 million ($1.4 million) and $US5 million out of a bond fund into equity funds in late February last year, shortly before the US share market surged after the Fed unveiled unprecedented monetary support. What does a poor man do?

So Powells position looks precarious, the prediction on inflation have been shown to be not accurate, and one would with all of the conflicts of inteerst inside the Fed, and lets not look at relationships with past members and the large hedge funds, one would ask who would believe the Fed behaves in the best interests of the people it is meant to serve, as opposed to the interest of the members of the Fed, and of course lets not forget who owns the Fed.

Rather sad, but great for gold, as I have little trust in the financila institutes. Even saw a prediciton of bitcoin going to $500k today!...Cathie Wood, the "flamboyant founder" of $US45 billion ($61 billion) asset manager ARK Invest, says the institutional embrace of bitcoin could see its price reach $US500,000 apiece, and she is not concerned that rising interest rates will dent valuations of tech stocks...

oh well lets make a few more predictions amongst ourselves, couldn't be much worse than the experts?

happy investing
the gnome

One day the FUND, the next day the FED
https://www.pimco.com.au/en-au/experts/richard-clarida

remarkable, and predictable, and appalling

there is surely more talent in the US

Well we can ... and do, grizzle about the divi, and the share price, but there is a jungle out there, and it is entertaining to say the least. Lady Luck can be seen. Old sayings can guide. One can make a quid as well, or lose a few.

I mentioned Predictive Discovery (PDI:ASX) with their maiden JORC resource of 3.2 million ounces in Guinea, and the share price went up 100+ % overnight, as it should for all of the right Geological reasons. AsBUT...tonishing result! Being in Guinea is a huge investor risk. One needs to know how to manage that risk.

Pardey joined the board, and that was one of my sell points for me, an act of "interest" at a board level. Pardey to assist in managing key project risk? Some other view? Techical oversight? Financing?

A fish rots from the head, as they say...where the saying was first said, I don't know...rumours...China, Russia, Poland, England, Greece. I had done well, and what goes up fast can go down fast. And I sold, and pocketed 100+% in a few weeks at "the office". But what can happen next

But then PDI entered a trading halt. Rumour on rumour, and some in the "official" press (GHUA). Then an announcement about validity of liscense, and related inuendo, all in Guinea, with a Coup De'tat just simmering.
Please read at ...
https://www2.asx.com.au/markets/company/pdi

Read "Bankan Update"

SP tanked 30+% over the days trading. No doubt Pardey will well advise the board. Lady Luck departed stage door right. Me to.

Be sure and discipline of your sell points. Conversely your buy points. One never knows what is around the corner. So risk management is a key consideration. Toro management did well in West Africa, I suspect they will do so again, under the banner CEY.

I wont blame Pardey for this incident, but he was a partial motivation of my exit. So thanks Pardy, in part. My sell and buy points have little wiggle room. Thanks Lady Luck,

CEY seems to me to have a smarter head than what it had before.

good luck all
the Gnome.

Gold stocks, along with gold bullion have underperformed other asset classes so far in 2021, weighed down by elevated US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar.
The rollout of coronavirus vaccines and optimism of a global economic rebound have also dulled its lustre.
There are a number of catalysts that could propel a recovery in the yellow metal’s price into 2022 and in turn, its miners’ stock prices.
One of these is inflationary pressures.
Wednesday the 13th looms as a big day. It's the release of US CPI and the market is anticipating a result well above the 2% Fed target. At the time of writing the Bloomberg median estimate was 5.3%.
Should the result be so high, or even higher, we do not think the market can continue its ‘inflacency’.
Inflacency is inflation complacency, built on a belief that this year’s surge in global inflation was a short-term phenomenon caused by post-COVID reopening.
Inflacency cannot continue in the long term and the Fed has already started to open the door on tapering, not that you could tell from markets.
Other risks – including radical monetary policies, negative real rates and unsustainable debt levels – remain and are supportive of higher gold prices.
Additionally, gold equities appear cheap compared to the gold price and other equities. They stand to benefit, as their balance sheets remain strong and they typically rise more than the gold price in an upswing.

A spike in interest rates following the September FOMC meeting in which the Fed suggested it could begin tapering its US$120 billion per month purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities in November was the most recent event weighing on the gold price. The Fed also indicated it might begin raising rates as soon as late 2022. We believe there are a myriad of risks that will come with a Fed tightening cycle, including:

Stimulus-fueled economic growth could grind to a halt;
Debt service costs become a problem with higher rates; and
Bubbles in certain sectors, bonds, crypto assets, and housing could come crashing down.
None of this is slowing the market down. According to the Wall Street Journal, IPO activity has already surpassed that of every full year on record. Sales of junk-rated bonds and loans have also topped previous annual highs. In 2021, the average daily notional value of stock options traded is set to surpass the value of underlying stock trades for the first time. NFT’s (non-fungible tokens) of digital art are selling for millions in a bubble reminiscent of the seventeenth century tulip mania, when a single tulip sold for more than some houses. Frothy markets don’t worry about risks and don’t see a need for safe havens. As a result, so far in 2021, gold has not shone for investors.

However, that could change on Wednesday following the release of the US inflation numbers...
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the gnome

Indeed...

"the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, warned last week. “We are unable to walk forward properly – it is like walking with stones in our shoes!”"

I would have thought it was more like trying to walk a tight rope, without any safety ropes (they are all compromised!) and no end in sight. The IMF and others simply latch onto any green shoot, no matter how faint the green, and declare a resounding recovery on its way, significantly greater than modelled...LOL

I think it is time they employed Shane Warne who was far better with the spin.

best
the Gnome.