Member Info for goldgnome

Gold going forward
When the gold price is declining or consolidating, gold equities tend to underperform. Even when gold rallies, gold stocks can sometimes lag during the early stages of the rally while markets digest the new outlook for the metal. Something similar is happening during this recent bounce back in gold prices. The revenues and earnings generated by the companies at the end of August is essentially the same it was a month ago, yet the stocks are trading at lower prices, creating a value opportunity.

Gold has been consolidating its gains since reaching all-time highs of US$2,075 per ounce a year ago. It nearly broke out a couple of times this year but failed and, in early August, dipped below its bull market trend bottom of US$1,760. Since the current trend began in 2019, gold has always bounced higher when testing the bottom of its range.

We have been disappointed by the failure of gold to hold at such a critical support level and subsequently believe that, in the shorter term, it may spend longer than anticipated consolidating around the US$1,800-US$1,900 per ounce range. However, the upside is that gold was quick to rebound from this “flash crash” and so a show of continued resilience should help reestablish the bull market trend and allow us to look back on this event as just an insignificant blip.

In the longer-term, once this consolidation has run its course, we still see plenty of tail-risk drivers that have the potential to drive gold to US$2,000 per ounce and beyond. We believe inflation is a longer-term problem and will persist into 2022. Economic growth is at risk once the massive fiscal spending has run its course and is further threatened by the potential removal of monetary stimulus. Finally, extreme debt levels and asset bubbles may not be sustainable, creating a risk-off environment that favours gold.

Gold’s wild ride in August
Gold finished August trading at US$1,813.62 per ounce, nearly unchanged from its July finish at US$1,814.19 per ounce. It may seem August was an uneventful 31 days for gold as it only fell 57 cents (0.03%) but in reality, it was actually a rollercoaster. Gold experienced its first big price drop early in the month when July’s US jobs report came out and exceeded expectations. The dollar-positive news supported the case for continued strength in the US economic recovery, sooner-than-anticipated tightening by the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) and a decline in gold prices to a close of US$1,763.03 on Friday August 6.

At the start of Asian trading on the following Monday, at around 7:00 AM local time the gold market was flooded with massive sell orders. The selling appeared indiscriminate, as it ignored low liquidity on a day when Japan and Singapore were on holiday. Gold dropped US$60 in a matter of minutes, trading as low as US$1,690.61 per ounce, causing a breach in important technical support levels and, likely, triggering stop loss orders that further exacerbated the sell-off.

The “flash crash”, as the press referred to it, certainly called into question the market’s ability to block or prevent what has been interpreted as either a malicious attack on gold prices or a serious trading error. While these moves have the potential to be damaging to the gold market, this latest incident was priced out quickly. By the end of that same week, gold’s price had returned to levels that we believe reflect current fundamentals.

The presidents of the Dallas and Boston Federal Reserve’s were partying harder than most, and agreed they may have been overdoing it? A conscious in the Fed Reserve...??!!! Nah...

While these public officials had repeatedly filed notices (profit, loss, what traded when?)on their trading activity each year, the brazen hyperactivity on display was extraordinary.

The Dallas Fed president Robert ****** averaged about 25 instances of million dollar plus stock trades a year, usually entering and exiting stocks from Alibaba to credit ETFs within a 12-month period.

Meanwhile, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren bought into several real estate funds. This was all allowed under the rules, but wasn’t a great look.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, has invested in real estate funds.

So last week, they decided to halt their trading on ethical grounds, and shut their trading accounts. By the end of the month, they will convert their holdings into passive funds. And then possibly influence to benefit (who?), and the game is the same?

Quite a conflicted little affair in the top end of town, by people who should know a lot better...and not look to benefit of what they know in the market investment strategies.

“What we have now is an ethics system built on a very narrow conception of what a central bank is and should be,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed historian at the University of Pennsylvania. The Fed business has changed and what a business it is...

Bit they have to earn a bob, and are underpaid by the day job LOL

best
the Gnome

Some major Industrial equity trends/indexes are going horziontal or down.“We reckon that China’s zero-covid strategy could be increasingly costly for the Chinese economy,” Nomura economist. Not alone, in Oz, the Banks are getting shoved into lending to small business...

Major U.S. stock indexes rose after the opening bell before turning lower. The market has broadly pulled back this month amid concerns that rising cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19 could weigh on economic activity and that stocks have rallied for too long without a correction. The S&P 500 has now declined in six of the past seven trading sessions.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell sharply on Tuesday’s inflation data, dropping to 1.276% from 1.323% Monday. Yields fall when bond prices rise.

BEIJING—Growth across a range of Chinese economic indicators pulled back sharply in August, as a new outbreak of the Covid-19 Delta variant and tighter government regulations on the property market hit consumer spending and the housing sector.

Retail sales, a key gauge of China’s consumption, rose just 2.5% in August from a year earlier, down sharply from July’s 8.5% year-over-year growth, according to data released Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The result marked the lowest pace of growth in a year and missed by a large margin the 6.3% increase expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Thanks Mr T.

They are not investors, they are owners of the business. If the owners of the business
cannot be bothered with following the progress of the business and asking the tough pertinent questions of mngt, then good luck to them. This kind of behaviour does lead to lax management though....what goes around comes around...so to speak

So speak up, get the critical questions onto the table and into the forum...now.

best
the gnome.

For those devotees of gold AND crypto, the latest offering coming soon ...

https://aabbgoldtoken.com/aabb-gold-token/

best
the gnome

Well I was too quick! Response below

"Thank you for your questions. These are very timely, because

1) Centamin will be hosting a Geology Capital Markets Event (details attached) on Thursday, 23 September where questions 1-3 will be discussed [see announcement of Sept 9], and

2) Centamin are planning to host a Retail Investor Event (date to be confirmed) to create an open forum with our retail community and address any outstanding questions. Once we have the finalised details of that event, we will issue an announcement and these questions will be included in the Q&A.

Specifically with regards question 5, I have pasted the below slide from our latest investor presentation (s12)(https://www.centamin.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/), which details some of the many key cost savings iniatives."

My apologies for being so fast out of the blocks...c u on Sept 23!!!

best
the gnome

I got an auto reply...see below LOL.

Thank you for your email, should your message relate to a job or working enquiry please re-send your email to working@centaminplc.com so that it processed by our Human Resources team. Please note that you will not receive a response regarding your application from this mail box.

Thank you and good luck.

Human Resources Department

Hi Mr T

I have sent another email with an upgrade in my questions...and copy to info@centaminplc.com
I have previously tried contacting your "HEAD OF CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS" but so far have not even had a 10 second, "yes we have your questions and will revert", which is very disturbing and unprofessional, hence I thought I would try another email.

I have several questions which I would like your company to answer. The answer can be made public, and I would prefer in writing, but happy to take a call
to clarify questions.

1. What portion of your Exploration budget will be spent on near mine versus new mine discovery?

2. What portion of your "new mine discovery" budget will be directed at new mines in Egypt, versus new mines out of Egypt?

3. What are your plans for creating value in the short term from the assets you hold in West Africa, and what do you see as the most significant risks in achieving these (and how do you plan
to manage such risks?)

4. What efforts is the company going to, to assess acquisition and merger opportunities? Is this formalised and are management/ staff accountable for this, or otherwise?

5. What are the major cost saving initiatives being put in place now and in the next 3 years?

6. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 1 year, and given that this would entail several initiatives, can you prioritise the initiatives.

7. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 5 years.

8. Your Investor Relations Manager is supposedly Alexandra Carse.Head of Corporate Communications and email is investor@centaminplc.com. If this is correct why does it take 2 days for the person not to acknowledge receipt of my email?

Needs improvement, to say the least. MIght try Youssef next?

the gnome

Thanks Mr T
Still not even a 10 second acknowledgement of the emial from the "INVESTOR RELATIONS" ""MANAGER""

A TRULY PATHETIC EFFORT BY ANY MEASURE, AND A TOTAL FAIL.

the Gnome

Can we speculate that Ross is not buying to make a loss?

the gnome

Well, I must say my medicine has got the better of me, and one has to enjoy ones self, before one .. well ... drifts away!

" A single sentence will suffice the modern man: He fornicated and read the papers" A. Camus THE FALL

If only!

Not sure where I am drifiting, but the massive amount of government and personal debt in the world does beg a poor man to ask why bother with saving a few bob? An dgiven a ob cannot attract any interst, then why would not one spend a bob...?

Of course if you did follow Edward Bernays (you were a woman and smoked slim cigarettes, because you looked ...slim and very desirable to rich men!) and his modern counter parts (there are a few), then the answer, is light em up!

Zero alcohol wines flying off the shelves in Oz (sobering thought), and 60+% of the population and business is in lockdown, but everything is alright? (Give me-a--BREAK-down)

strange world, and in time of uncertainty..buy gold! or gold mining companies with long life and good EBITADA margins ....

the Gnome

Well the Head of Corporaate Communicationsis missingin action. Cannot answer a phone, and canot respond to an email, even tough it might take 10 seonds to say, ...thanks

Appalling! lets see how this works out.
Will keep you informed.
The owners..own.

Unless they chose to not be heard.

best
the Gnome

Thanks Mr T

Yes, I sent the questions into CEY, to Alexandra. So far no acknowledgement, which is professionally unacceptable. It takes about 10 seconds to acknowledge the email, and you can even do this on auto-pilot.
I have some serious concerns with their ability to communicate, which, at the risk of at least boring to myself, I will not repeat.

Suffice to say they will be called by me in the next few hours. Their professional duty to communicate with the owners is a fundamental tenet of the corporate entity. Right now they are a FAIL in this department, which I will remind them of.

best
the Gnome

Thanks Mr T

Perhaps you could also table the history of the analysts predictions. There are distinct disadvantages in predicting the share price of exploration and mining companies accurately if one has never worked on a mine nor knows anything about what happens in exploration and mining. The analysts in Oz, seem very willing to predict to their wants, or the wants of their firm, as odd as that may sound. That is if they want to buy, they tell you to sell, and vice versa. I got a call last week from some well meaning men in suits wanting me to sell a wad of my uranium stocks, as the "time was right to exit" (mine was a heavy position). The stocks have risen 30-40% since receiving the hot tip. Funny about that...but of course I could have off loaded the lot!?

Prediction as a theme has been getting a flogging here in Oz. The Epidemiologists have been showing some clean heals to the Economists, and have been a bit too willing to throw out a raft of predictions, none of which seem to have been correct in the last 18 months (been a never ending spray though, exhausting stuff!). Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors in diagnosis of deaths, uncertainty about mode of transmission, uncertainty about masks and tyes of masks (etc), lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures..in summary, garbage in and garbage out.

Not sure what the modelling algorithms are like at Liberium, but I do have my doubts abiut their veracity and predictive ability.

good luck to the punters

best
the gnome.

Always been intrigued as to what sort of mess can be created in the USA, and whether the oirginal snake oil really did come from down south?

THE MISSISSIPPI SCHEME = between 1719 and 1720,

Some in clandestine companies combine;
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry ‘em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears.

Defoe.

Some things dont change
best
the gnome

To be Candid,

I think you should cut your losses and invest in Tesla, and do it now. Lets cut to the chase, and dont invest in something you dont understand.

best
the gnome.

Thanks Mr T

My questions have been emailed in as you direct. For your and any others reference, they are below

....

I am a CEY long term investor (years )

I have several questions which I would like your company to answer. The answer can be made public, and I would prefer in writing, but happy to take a call
to clarify questions.

1. What portion of your Exploration budget will be spent on near mine versus new mine discovery?

2. What portion of your "new mine discovery" budget will be directed at new mines in Egypt, versus new mines out of Egypt?

3. What are your plans for creating value in the short term from the assets you hold in West Africa, and what do you see as the most significant risks in achieving these (and how do you plan
to manage such risks?)

4. What efforts is the company going to, to assess acquisition and merger opportunities? Is this formalised and are maangement/ staff accountable for this, or otherwise?

5. What are the major cost saving initiatives being put in place now and in the next 3 years?

6. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 1 year, and given that this would entail several initiatives, can you prioritise the initiatives.

7. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 5 years.

...

best
the gnome

Earlier this month, the legendary mining investor Rick Rule (legendary investor) conversed ...

‘I would argue that if you look at Australian gold equities, particularly the mid-caps and the single asset producers, they are selling at the lowest multiple of net present value to enterprise value that I have seen in a 45-year career.

‘These companies are statistically as cheap as they have ever been, at a point in time when I believe gold is going to go up.

‘That makes them very attractive to me.’

“Look for companies that enjoy strong free cash flow,” Rule says.

“Statistically, the cheap ones are the single asset producers and the mid-caps (400,000oz to 1.2moz per year) with good free cash flows.

“Look for companies with good development pipelines.

CEY is in the investment basket

best
the gnome

Lots of dangerous currents washing/ sloshing around in the market place/s. If the covid virus and its (endless?) mutations are not enough, the politicisation of virus containment and the government management of the economic effects of the virus are cause for alarm.

In the ongoing economic fallout from the pandemic, David Woo (now INde of Wall Street, trying to make a name for himself as such) now worries that lax insights from Wall Street’s intellectual elite could throw up painful problems in the near term.
I would argue ... has, is and will .... throw up a raft of problems,

‘‘Wall Street is doing just that to us today with the far more dangerous threat posed by climate change, craftily greenwashing the economic system and delaying overdue systemic solutions, including those intended to combat rising inequality,’’ . The UN reports 4.5 million dying of cold pa, and 600k dying of heat pa? Is global warming that bad?

The timing of the US Federal Reserve’s plan to scale back its $US120 billion monthly bond buying that has reduced borrowing costs through the health crisis and helped to support financial markets, has emerged as one of the biggest questions facing investors today. It cannot continue, as the race to grab debt (as much as possible) to buy assets, especially those which produce passive income at 2-5x the cost of the debt is gravity defying. Asset bubbles everywhere

The rapid rise of the delta variant, which has refocused attention on vaccines in countries such as Israel, Britain and the US, which enjoyed some of the highest inoculation rates in the world, is being swayed by perceptions that the recent surge is the fault of the anti-vax crowd. (Vax reduces the personal risk of effects of the virus, and has some reducing effect on the spread?)

Instead, waning protection among the vaccinated poses just as serious a threat, Woo believes, and could delay widely held views that the US central bank will ease its bond buying this year.

‘‘The most fundamental question on Wall Street right now – when is the Fed going to taper? – comes down to what is causing the surge in COVID-19 cases and what assumptions the market is making,’’ Woo says.

“New variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are detected every week,” Ray says. “Most come and go — some persist but don’t become more common; some increase in the population for a while, and then fizzle out. When a change in the infection pattern first pops up, it can be very hard to tell what’s driving the trend — changes to the virus, or changes in human behavior. It is worrisome that similar changes to the spike protein are arising independently on multiple continents.”
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/a-new-strain-of-coronavirus-what-you-should-know

The underperformance of many gold companies whether single or multiple mines is a strange event. The billowing of the cypto related companies and currencies is staggering, given that most are h