Member Info for goldgnome

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/7/burkina-ex-leader-compaore-to-snub-trial-on-sankara-assassination

and the french wonder why they are hated in west africa....

the gnome

One of the fringe benefits about living in the intellectual (central banks) world is that you dont have to worry about reality? The real world is just too tough/complex, so we make it simple, then derive even simpler models, then make predictions, and then become amazed when the predictions from the simple models don't predict reality... Really?

We introduce definitions, assumptions and verbage. Core inflation and Non Core inflation.

And where is the inflation that hits your pocket ? ...> in both core and non core? So the point of the distinction is what?

The annual rate of inflation in the United States hit 6.2% in October 2021, the highest in more than three decades, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Brisk demand for goods, disrupted supply chains, temporary shortages and a rebound in travel have pushed 12-month inflation to its highest readings in decades. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.1% in October from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge. WHAT WAS THAT ABOUT A 2 % PER YEAR TARGET? AND THE SOUTH AFRICA VARIANT AND ALL OF THE OTHER VARIANTS YET TO EMERGE ARE COMING AND WHAT EFFECT DOES THE MODELLING SHOW FOR THESE "UNSEEN DEVELOPMENTS", ... AS PREDICTED BY THE LAWS OF REALITY. VIRUSES MUTATE- CONTINUALLY?

If you cannot engineer inflation down, then at leat you can redefine it, and talk it down...

TIP. REAL WORLD, REAL ASSETS, VERY SOON .... GOLD IS NOT A BAD PLACE TO BE FOR ME .

all from the southern colonies

the gold gnome

PS. So much is sacrificed in the name of trying to manage volatility (think derivative industry)

Interesting appointment to VP Fed, make me wonder what happens when inflation goes up significantly and interest rates dont ...

"President Biden’s decision to nominate Lael Brainard to become Federal Reserve vice chairwoman elevates a veteran policy maker and economist who has been a strong ally of Chairman Jerome Powell on the central bank’s boldest policy decisions during the pandemic.

Ms. Brainard was a key adviser to Mr. Powell as the Fed scaled up emergency-lending backstops last year, and she provided influential intellectual support for his effort last year to revamp the Fed’s policy-setting framework. Under the new framework, the Fed set aside its practice of raising rates to pre-empt inflationary pressures and pledged to keep interest rates low to foster a faster and broader labor-market recovery."

Might need some additionall real world support, rather than the intellectual stuff?

Tip? Get into real assets quick

the gnome

The catch word is stewardship, I believe, perhaps Elon is aware of the concept?

There was a time when Apple took a strong stance on mineral sourcing stewardship, but thats a tad inconvenient. It seems to have died (conveniently), and morphed into environmental stewardship, recycling what has been mined, water stewardship, and energy stewardship of sorts. Full responsibility will come, and by all.
https://www.apple.com/au/environment/

The LBMA has a gold stewardship program..up to v9 now ... so moving forward
https://cdn.lbma.org.uk/downloads/responsible-sourcing/Responsible-Gold-Draft-Document-V9-Draft-Consultation.pdf
, which is great in some ways, especially if you in the gold business in Dubai.

World Gold Council has some guidelines ///
https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/responsible-gold

the gnome

thanks Mr T

Its not as if the US hasnt been told about the shorticominngs of their foreign policy..several times, in several languages ...
but they keep repeating the same set of actions, thinking there will be a different result ....
https://www.amazon.com/Dismantling-Empire-Americas-American-Project/dp/0805093036

best
the gnome

Exactly Cowichan

Its a highly leverage investment of not much, to attend a networking function puts aface to a name to a company, and breaks down barriers ... does suggest arrogance, or aloofness of some sort, and that is a sign of short sightedness, naievity or stupidity, or combinations of the lot.

the gnome

“It was just a mistake and we’re paying for it, and you just have to let it get through the system and don’t repeat the error,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, who was an economic adviser to President George W. Bush...been a rash of mistakes since then, more to come.

White House officials acknowledged that the March law, known as the American Rescue Plan, MAY have contributed to rising prices, a possibility they said they were aware of before it passed.

There are multiple causes for surging inflation. The Delta variant (and of course we have a newer and more grotesque variant in S Africa, and predictably more to follow, UK to hut borders, Australian politicians in denial, and you can imagine what is going to happen....) has prolonged pandemic disruptions that the White House and many economists had expected to ease. Overseas factories and ports shut down, limiting the supply of goods when Americans had money to spend. Meanwhile, many Americans were reluctant to return to jobs and others had lingering child-care constraints, causing labor shortages.

Extremely low interest rates, reflecting Federal Reserve policy, and multiple rounds of government stimulus are contributing to booming demand for goods. Strong demand and limited supply are a recipe for inflation.

In March, as part of a plan crafted on the 2020 campaign trail to prevent a repeat of the 2009 recession, Mr. Biden signed into law a $1.9 trillion coronavirus-relief bill that included $1,400 checks to many Americans, an extension of a $300 weekly jobless-aid supplement, and a one-year expansion of the child tax credit that provides periodic payments for many households.

And we are heading into recovery mode. LOL gimme a break

the gnome

Mr T

without doubt about the media hype, but of course now its on steroids, with the social media! mixed with an inability to concentrate more than 8 seconds.

As Warren B and many other famous investors used to say if you dont understand the business dont invest, and ... do your own research. Well thats out of date, no time to do your own research, just follow the thumbs up and the crowd.

But we live in the times of social media madness, which drives the extraordinarily popular delusions and the growing insanity of Crowds:

RECOMENDATION: 1841 Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds: All Volumes - Complete and Unabridged Charles Mackay....as if it was written

best
the gnome

The crypto trading hamster that outperformed the S&P 500 has died, and it happpened before he was paid his due commisions.

The crypto community is in mourning after the untimely death of Mr Goxx, the crypto trading hamster that outperformed the S&P 500 since he began in June.

“Mr Goxx has brought joy to people all across the globe and reminded us not to take life too seriously,” Mr Goxx’s anonymous caretaker said in a tweet on Wednesday. The caretaker said Mr Goxx showed no signs of serious illness, and fell asleep peacefully on Monday morning.

The office of Mr Goxx, has gone into deep mourning.

Mr Goxx captured the internet’s imagination this year as he placed trade after trade for various cryptocurrencies in his hamster trading office, which consisted of a wheel of intention, buy and sell decision tunnels, and various sensors and cameras.

Since he began trading on June 12, Mr Goxx posted a career performance of 19.7 per cent, nearly double the S&P 500’s return of 10.9 per cent over the same time period.

The hamster’s last trade was selling 3229.4 tron tokens on November 20, which proved timely given the cryptocurrency plunged nearly 10 per cent this week after eToro said it would delist TRX from its platform for US investors.

The top three holdings of Mr Goxx’s portfolio were stellar, ether, and chiliz, according to the hamster’s last livestream video.

The success of Mr Goxx allowed his caretaker to raise more than $US12,000 ($16,678) from the sale of Goxx Capital-themed NFTs. The proceeds funded a larger trading portfolio for the hamster, as well as the construction of a bigger and better trading rig, according to an interview last month with Insider.

For now, the idea of continuing the crypto trading project with a new pet is of no relevance to the caretaker as they mourn the loss of Mr Goxx.

“Thank you and rest in peace, Max (a.k.a. Mr. Goxx). You will be missed, and your memory will live forever on the blockchain,” the caretaker said.

Rest easy Mr Goxx.

A relative of Mr Goxx has however said he may take up trading gold, as there seems to be more opportunity for "fun and games"

the greatly saddened Gnome

As usual the comms specialists for CEY missing in translation...sigh

With you Cowichan

I would like to see some disruption on the more than comfortable board of underperformers. Nice to have gender balance and whatever balances you want, but better to have a company whose share price is flying...and we havent seen this with the incumbent comfortable board.

Lets get traction, rubber onto the road ...

Gin and T anyone,

best
the gnome

Spoon,

The problems inherited cannot be fixed in a day. Having said that the walk needs to follow the talk (been plenty of the latter, not much of the former), and 12 months is not a bad time to achieve some evidence of the walk.

He is an inclusive manager, which means things will take longer, whilst he on baords all on the new journey. .. and off boards those that cant make it.

But he is also expected to be a leader, who gets things done, at the pace the market needs. Pushes the boundaries ...

Key things to watch is Dec 1 report and the presentation. We should hear the talk but ALSO see very clear evidence of the walk

At the moment is walking like a cautious government employee

All honeymoons come to an end sometime ... and it is about that time i feel

best
the gnome

Ho hum ...

A US inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve posted its biggest year-on-year jump since the 1990s last month, adding to pressure on President Joe Biden as his White House scrambles to tame rising costs.

The Commerce Department’s core personal consumption expenditure index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 4.1 per cent in October compared with a year ago.

Battling high prices has become a central focus for Joe Biden’s economic team after recent data showed US consumer price growth jumping at the fastest pace in roughly three decades. AP

The jump represents a significant increase from the 3.7 per cent annual rise in September, and was in line with consensus forecasts.

When energy and food prices are included, the PCE price index rose 5 per cent compared with October 2020, faster than the 4.4 per cent rise in September. The data was released as part of a report that also showed personal income rising 0.5 per cent in October compared with the preceding month, while consumption rose 1.3 per cent.

Battling high prices has become a central focus for Mr Biden’s economic team after recent data showed US consumer price growth jumping at the fastest pace in roughly three decades, confounding hopes that inflationary pressures would be shortlived.

Wont be long before the new pandemic hits the next country/s

Hang onto your hats

the gnome

In the nineteenth century, an entrepreneur got caught up in a financial crash in Argentina, and is now being talked about by the Federal Reserve? Sound a bit on the edge.?

Silvio Gesell in 1895
Wikimedia Commons

Silvio Gesell hated money. A German entrepreneur who moved to Argentina for business in the late 19th century, he witnessed a massive financial crash in 1890 that convinced him that money was behind the world's economic problems: poverty, inequality, unemployment, stagnation.

The problem, Gesell believed, was that money served two roles that often came into conflict: It was a way for people to store wealth, and it was the thing everybody needed to conduct business. The fact that money could store wealth meant its holders had a reason to cling to it, especially in crises like the one he saw in Argentina, when opportunities to safely put that money elsewhere looked grim. It was a typical story. When people got scared, they hoarded cash and brought business to a standstill. It led, Gesell said, to a situation of "poverty amid plenty."

Gesell wanted to create a new kind of money — a money that would "rot like potatoes" and "rust like iron" so no one would want to hoard it, a money that was "an instrument of exchange and nothing else." And the crazy part is that he did create it. Through a series of pamphlets, articles and books, Gesell inspired a worldwide movement that introduced a completely new form of money. It's one of the most fascinating, and largely forgotten, stories in economic history.

Article continues after sponsor message

But after 70 years of obscurity, Gesell is making a comeback. All of a sudden, this obscure radical from another age has his name and ideas popping up in unlikely places — like speeches of leaders at the U.S. Federal Reserve, research papers of the International Monetary Fund and the pages of the Financial Times. As the industrialized world grapples with stagnation and as markets signal another recession, policymakers are struggling to figure out what to do. Could Gesell provide an answer?

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/08/27/754323652/the-strange-unduly-neglected-prophet

My personal take: The central bankers Know not what they do ... and money will be for exchange and buying assets, and the quicker one gets rid of the money and gets a real asset, the richer they will become

best
the Gnome

Inflation “is not transitory”, said Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS (Switzerland) SA. “It’s injected some bullish momentum. That’s a change from the previous ‘thinking’ since the Fed’s taper threat is out of the way.”

Very difficult to not see inflation growing, and lasting longer. The volume of money being printed and promised to fix this and that is gigantic, and no end in site.

The infrastructure act in the USA signed into law last week marked a defeat for the faction of progressive economists in ascendancy in 2020. For these advocates of modern monetary theory (MMT), the insistence by both political parties that all the $550 billion of new spending be matched by offsetting revenue, known as “payfors,” goes against their belief that money is merely a tool for government.

MMTers detest payfors as wrongheaded thinking about money. Money only exists because of government spending, and under MMT, the government should just create as much as it needs to finance its projects (doesnt matter how worthy the projects are). In a tight economy—like we have now—MMT might want offsets to new spending. But higher taxes or lower spending elsewhere would be aimed at avoiding inflation, not at balancing the budget.
The most important claim of MMT is that a government need never default on debt issued in its own currency. The lesson of 2020 was that MMT is right.

“We got five or six trillion dollars of spending and tax cuts without anyone worrying about payfors, so that was a good thing,” says L. Randall Wray, an economics professor at Bard College in New York and a leading MMT academic. “In January [2020], MMT was a crazy idea, and then in March, it was, OK, we’re going to adopt MMT.”

So there we have it. The governments will and are, printing as much money as they want. It is tied to nothing much, just floats and gets pased around, and if you are lucky it may produce productivity growth, but who cares, as long as the debt is created in your won currency (This was the basics of the USD strength in many ways, global currency and all that).

So how do you value money now. Probably by a thumb suck, and probably not much more than a thumb suck.

The centtral banks are in trouble with the crypto's

It used to be that Trust was a key currency, but its worth considering what you trust,

Money supply now is in theory and practice infinite. Gold is not, and nor is bitcoin

good luck, get into real assets, and dont be caught holding any money, or worse, leaving your money in the bank!

best
the gnome

Just seen another $trillion or 2 money creation effort in the USA. Its the biggest ponzi scheme that the world has ever seen, and on the circus goes. What has trouble "going on" is access to potable water, and in fact water managment in the US is at the tipping point. More $trillion/s to be spent

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that water mains, especially such old ones, rupture 240,000 times annually, while “trillions of gallons” of potable water worth $2.6 billion seep from leaky pipes, and “billions of gallons of raw sewage” pollute the surface water that provides 61% of our supply. Fixing busted pipes, which break at the rate of one every two minutes nationally, has cost nearly $70 billion since 2000.

The U.S. has 2.2 million miles of waterpipes, which are, on average, 45 years old. The EPA’s 2015 estimate for overhauling such an aging system of piping was $473 billion, or $23.7 billion annually over 20 years — in other words, anything but chump change. Still, compared to the way Congress allots money to the U.S. military for its endless losing wars and eternal build-ups of weaponry, it couldn’t be more modest. After all, the Pentagon’s latest budget request was for $715 billion, to which the House Armed Services Committee added $25.5 billion, unsolicited, as did its Senate counterpart.

We are not much better in Oz, the way we treat water. We cannot even manage our only large river properly, and are mired in petty state politics.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/30/murray-darling-mismanagement-floods-water-theft-and-burke-and-willss-camels
We are the driest inhaboted continent, in an era of unprecedented climate change, and now we are so distracted we cannot focus on resolving one of the more important issues which has been facing us for 100 plus years.

Off for a run, followed by a coffee...

latest cricket news? We lost our cricket captain for a lapse in reason, sexting, flashing a picture of the wedding tackle (fine upstanding man? LOL)?

hope everyone is enjoying their weekend, and I am sure glad I am a male in Australia, antd not a (educated or want to be educated) female in Afghanistan.

best
the gnome

Central banks are suddenly reducing bond-buying programs, known as quantitative easing (QE), that were used successfully to suppress interest rates.

Liquidity is a global phenomenon but it’s clear Australia has been acutely affected. A study by Sweden’s Riksbank showed that initially QE enhanced liquidity, but once the percentage of stock held by a central bank reached a tipping point of about 40 per cent, liquidity deteriorated significantly.

And New York Federal Reserve governor John Williams commented last week “more work needs to be done to improve the resilience of the US Treasury market”. “A well-functioning US Treasury market is critically important for the US economy and the entire world.”

... large carry trades have been disrupted. These are where hedge funds and the like borrow in low-yielding assets to buy higher-yielding assets.

Often these are leveraged, so any sudden lift in volatility causes many of these positions to be unwound. The Reserve Bank via QE and the old yield curve control could have reasonably been expected to offset some of this. However, the RBA was in the middle of a policy rethink and Australian short-term rates went nuclear. Been caught with pants down before ...

According to Goldman Sachs, volumes in Australia’s major bond contracts are down about 46 per cent. Other liquidity metrics point to a 71 per cent decline. The US two-year note has some liquidity measures flashing 94 per cent lower than average.

The Australian bond market is currently factoring in six increases to the cash rate over the next 18 months. The volatility and lift in interest rates has begun to move fixed-rate mortgages; the five-year swap rate has lifted 1.1 per cent since mid-August.

If anything, fixed-rate loans should be priced higher than where they are now.

There is, however, another force countering the momentum of fixed-income markets: the quantum of excess liquidity the banks currently have. It’s allowing home loan rates to have had only modest increases. At the risk of oversimplification, once this is extinguished, the banks will have to step back into wholesale markets. So, it could be worse, and if it does, that will be reflected in higher variable loan rates. BUT THE LOW INTEREST RATES ARE CAUSING ASSET SPIKES AND HOMES ARE UNAFFORABLE TO THE YOUNG AND UNCERTAIN.

Should we be as worried about inflation as the bond market is? So far, it has been largely cost-push. Shanghai to LA freight costs are 180 per cent ..and going north, enrgy up 40%, wages pushing up, productivity down.

Gold - the ultimate inflation hedge, but gold ETFs have not grown. Gold miners underpriced This suggests that investors are not so worried about inflation that the ultimate safe haven is required, but they are worried enough for some prudent tail risk hedging...

Thanks Cowichan.

Mr H maybe a tad too cautious/conservative. I am interested to see how his predictions go, I think he is comfortable underpromising and overdelivering, but see how things work out. Some short term pain? for long term gain?

best
the gnome

The single asset companies either have to develop multiple assets through development and exploration (organic) or through mergers and aquisitions. Aquisitions can be done best if you use script and the SP is strong which does not apply to CEY at the moment. So the growth (development) or aquistion of CEY is the more probable growth paths. ..plus development of project.

If there is CEY acquisition, then this will be at 30%+ above the current 30 day VWASP.

If organic growth then there will have to move the West African assets forward quickly. For sure they will not do 2 assets simultaenously in West Africa, so the choice is which asset to move. They have decided is my read, and they ae spending money to convert the asset into a development green light, and this is not done overnight, as they have said clearly. I am waiting for the Doropo project in Cote IVoire, to get a green light mid 2022, and ABC 6-12 months after this, and CEY will then be a 2-3 asset company, which is what they wanted to achieve in their move to WEest Africa.

Yes, like them to get value in Burkina, but perhpas the smart money here is for them to sell and get back ended, say plus a NSR royalty?

best
the gnome

Thanks Cowachin

One of the issues in investing in Burkina Faso, is that there are some ongoing security (and I won't post again about corruption) issues in Burkina. So this makes raising money in Burkina difficult, and if a project is marginal, then the security and corruption issues will provide the tipping (down) points, sadly for the average citizens of Burkina

NEW SECURITY ISSUE
"We can establish the following toll: 49 gendarmes dead, 4 civilians (killed). Fortunately, we have found 46 gendarmes" who were missing, said Ousséni Tamboura after a cabinet meeting.

The death toll could rise further, however, as the gendarmerie detachment in Inata, a town in the Sahel region close to the border with Mali, comprises about 150 men, according to local sources.

The detachment was attacked on Sunday by "a large number of armed individuals" travelling "on several pick-ups and motorcycles," according to a security source who described "long exchanges of fire" between the attackers and the gendarmes.

This is one of the deadliest attacks against the defense and security forces since Burkina Faso has been confronted with jihadist actions, which began in this country six years ago.

At the end of the council of ministers, the president of Burkina Faso, Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, deplored "dysfunctions at a significant level" within the army, mentioning in particular problems with food supplies.

"This is unacceptable and that is why I understand very well the different reactions of anger that are expressed," he added.

The government spokesman said earlier that two commanders in charge of the northern sector of the country have been removed from their posts after the attack in Inata.
https://www.africanews.com/2021/11/18/burkina-faso-president-criticizes-army-dysfunctions-after-deadly-attack
There are wide scale and ongoing protests about the handling or lack there of, terrorist threats. I expect these to magnify very significantly in the next few months. I am also suspecting there may well be a regime change. This is not disimilar to Mali, where there have been 2 coups in the last 12 months.

"A convoy of French troops in Burkina Faso was stopped en route to Niger on Friday by a human barricade of protesters opposed to France's involvement in a regional conflict with jihadists. Anger is rising in the former French colony over the inability of Burkinabe and international forces to prevent rising violence by Islamist militants"

Why, when they were going to help?

France continues to deal poorly with the investigation of the assasination fo Thomas Sankara. There is now a trial in motion

The poor will become poorer. Protests and civil unrest will increase

best
the gnome
[hope I do not get censored this time!?]