Member Info for goldgnome

I am not surprised, the Mining Industry is not too flash, so to speak, in terms of Management. "Good to go!" as they shout in the subways of New York.

For Shanta, there are some noticeable ommissions (profit) and with a current production profile of 28k ounce, it beggars belief that this or will be real world profitable. The underground extensions are notably too lower grade to be viable. The Q3 update is amateurish at best. Comparison with Doropo..no comparison...Doropo anyday

good luck punters

the gnome

Thanks Mr T

Same ol, same ol I guess,

Jail for life would not be a bad outcome

The Gnome

There is a growing cult, the walking talking clueless, it seems...

Noted Global Economist Paul Krugman fesses up

So, rising bond prices are good news all around. What’s going right?

Basically, nobody knows. When an individual stock rises or falls, that might reflect traders’ special information or expertise. But bond traders work off the same macroeconomic data available to anyone with internet access.

Analysts offered a variety of explanations for rising interest rates this year — it was the federal budget deficit, which shot up because of a decline in revenues; it was the boost to business investment caused by the Biden administration’s industrial policies; it was optimism about future economic growth driven by artificial intelligence. But as far as I can tell, there’s no solid evidence for any of these hypotheses.

Clueless, and that the way the world seems to be going?

But things will get better in 2024, espcially in regard to gold prices

enjoy

good luck

the Gnome

I think there is a tremendous amount of sceptiscism in the younger generation, as to what the market is about, and just how efficient and trasparent it is....contrary to their reputation for being a generation of spenders – 43 per cent of millennials are investing their money, with property and shares revealed as the most favoured investments. And those that are going into shares are going into ETFs in a large way, with a minor investment into the Junior Exploration "Casino"..high risk bet on the winner in a sector full of losers and loose governance, with a probability of success of 1/10,000....they are not really that stupid, the ones I know, diversify well, are sceptical, ...

Used of things going up, sure process go up every day, and they are told inflation is 5 or 10%, what a joke...

The reason prices go up, is the value of the fiat is going down ... an they all get that very well. They look at the leadership in the government, and decide there is not much there to invest in, and the corporates tend to look after themselves first second etc ....

good luck go gold

~the Gnome

Hard to imagine there will not be a change in President.

Presidential hopeful Nikki Haley delivered the Margaret Thatcher lecture!?

At 51, Haley’s ambition is clear: to become America’s first female president. She is rapidly gaining in the polls, she is drawing huge donations from billionaires. Wall Street’s best, such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon, praise her and as her performance in the final Republican presidential debate this week showed, she can slug it out with fierce male rivals such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

But there is one massive problem. Like her closest rivals for the Republican nomination, she is trailing former president Donald Trump in the polls by 50 points.

Professor Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted every US president since 1982 with his ’13 Keys’ methodology, tells AFR Weekend that Haley is in this race for three reasons; delusion, future candidacy and the chance that Mr Trump, who faces 91 criminal charges, ends up in jail and loses the nomination.

Thanks Torn

Nice to see gold cruising through A$3030, and us$2040...perhaps Goldmans are right .. and/or perhaps they are in the market, in a positive way. The 10 year graph looks good to me ... but I am not a graphing expert

The McKinsey report is interesting and thanks for this.

My take on the gold industry in the context of feasibility studies...

1. Too few measurements (on a % of ore volume, and distribution int he ore body) of the amount of leachable gold, which is the gold you make money out of. The infatuation with the new total gold assay method of Chrysos (when its working) is a concern in this (Barrick are installing this throughout their operations?). The industry needs to measure what it makes money out of, and to do so in a far more exhaustive fashion than is current considered best practise.

2. Similarly geotech is undersampled, if not chronically. This leads to the surprises in pit wall failure, and suboptimial blasting. The suboptimal blasting, leads to issues with size fractions resultant from blasting, which are eventually fed into the mill, with suboptimal results.

3. The industry has an unhealthy reliance on measurements out-of-hole, as opposed to in-hole, in-situ, which is a larger measurement volume of what you are going to mine, and between hole which can give you a far greater effective volume of measuremet for geotech.

4. The reliance on drilling to obtain insitu measurements introduces another suboptimal bias (directional) in sampling,

THere are ways around these issues, but the industry does not use them enough, if at all in most sites. Hole to hole tomography would get rid of the drilling bias to a large degree. Routine measurements of leach rate, as is now possible with detectORE would assist in the geomet.

Anyhow the industry is what it is. A slow moving beast, using a lot of thumb sucking...which does not always work

the Gnome

The “Art and Science” of feasibility studies has been the subject of innumerable papers over the decades and have been performed since commercial mining commenced and yet the success rate of the development of mining assets (the ultimate test of a feasibility study) is cited at 20% in the above paper (source: McKinsey & Company survey of 41 major projects with capex greater than $500 million completed between 2008 and 2018) and Lawrance (1997) reports that: “There is strong evidence that, at least for major projects, there is an unwelcome record of failure (Morris and Hough, 1986, page 5). The World Bank (1978) lists 109 operations of which a quarter had cost overruns of 25% or more, 10% had cost overruns of 50% or more. Apparently half had time overruns of 25% or more and a third had time and cost overruns of 50% or more.”

I THINK THE FIGURES ARE WORSE THAN THIS ... BUT ACCOUNTTANTS CAN MAKE THE FIGURES LOOK ROSIER

best

the gnome

Ha, I live in the driest state on the driest inhabited continent (some call it an island?), and we are having the heaviest downfall 3 days before summer starts ...weather patterns continue to change as they have for a few billion years ...

cheers

the gnome

Thanks Torn..

Interesting notes, and it seems that the industry is totally incapable of learning from its catastrophic failures. Part of what you describe is that yet again that they did not have the geomet model right, which is what blew 3 nickel laterite projects up, with one led by Twiggy Forrest..and losses of $billions ... If you dont understand the GeoMet, you will not get the design of the flowsheet for the Met plant right, you will not know what you are feeding into the plant and so on. The industry still seems to thinkit can design met plants based on a sampling of a fraction of a %..0.001% of an orebodies mass, Have a look at the work of Peter McCarthy in Australia ...

Surveys of many studies reported by RL Bullock in 2011 reveal that accuracy ranges are:

Scoping -50% to +30%

Prefeasibility -27% to +30%

Feasibility -20% to +27%

Detailed engineering -12% to +20%

These ranges are wider than generally understood but are constrained by what is practical (and what is achieved in reality is rarely within these limits). For example, many people expect a feasibility study accuracy to be +/- 10% but this is rarely achievable other than within the constrained boundary of the processing plant, and I would believe this when I see it. Estimates for mining and infrastructure are much less reliable. It takes twice as much effort (and cost) to reach +/- 10% as it does to reach +/- 15%.

In fact when you have a look at what happens in a gold processing plant, and the flow paths there its only marginally better than a thumb suck most of the time? Industry best practise is a long way whort of what is needed, and its 2023.

The logistics of supply for complex engineering projects is challenging at the best of times ... and during COVID times it was horrific.

Can you post a link to the mcKinsey article please

thanks

the Gnome

I hope no one got caught in this shamozzle. Board clean out, and however did this happen, and who was watching what (etc)

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2023/board-and-management-changes/

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2023/construction-update-for-the-araguaia-nickel-project-3/

Gold moving nicely. In a note published Sunday, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs said they expect higher gold prices through 2024. In the report titled "Gold's shine is returning,' the analysts raised their 12-month price target to $2,050 an ounce.

"The potential upside in gold prices will be closely tied to U.S. real rates and dollar moves, but we also expect persistent strong consumer demand from China and India, alongside central bank buying to offset downward pressures from upside growth surprises and rate cut repricing," the analysts wrote.

watching a good elecctric storm light up the morning sky ....

the gnome

Thanks Mr T

You maybe should consider the question as to what is not manipulated. The answer is in fact easy, the things that do not matter are not manipulated, as they do not matter!

Gold, although it is a small market, it does seem to matter? In reality it is a question of the cost of manipulation versus the benefit. The cost of manipulation is not a lot (even if you are caught !?), and the benefit does spill out into a wider arena and questions which have hidden benefits, which tend to have more significance than the costs.

The wider arena has gold lobbing in as more than a commodity or currency, but something that has a lot of "emotional attachment" which goes beyond that which you can reasonably put into a spreadsheet, so the economists leave the room, not understanding something what they cant plug in and compute. They try but this is another game.

So no questions from me, gold is a manipulated market, and hence gold miners and perhaps more bizzarly, gold explorers are a beneficiaries of the manipulation. Gold explorers are bizzare as they have an implication in their price structure, as to what the gold price might be in the future!? Of course no one knows!

But people like me think the gold price is going to stagnate or appreciate, and hence gold explorers are not a bad bet, given you bet on the well intentioned and credentialled explorers (hint: very few of these)

So I am happy with CEY, who have a reasonable allocation to exporation, some of which is very likely to convert to income. . The commodity is gold The company have more reserves than they declare, more resources than they declare and more exloration upside .. So goes the legsilation, and so goes the engineer. The social capital is as good as if not better than most ...

good luck to us all ...

fortune tends to favour the brave and the more informed.

best

then Gnome

Everyone has an opinion on gold, ... if interested listen to Joe Cavatoni, Market Strategist at the World Gold Counci World Gold Council on the below chat, go in at 40 minutes on the podcast, more of a balanced and intelligent discussion

https://www.firstlinks.com.au/wealth-experience-podcast-s2-ep12

the speaker

https://www.gold.org/who-we-are/our-team/joseph-cavatoni

Growth of digital gold

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/in/investing/gold/what-is-digital-gold/

Lots of factors impacting on gold, more than previously ...

enjoy the weekend ...

the gnome

I used to be surprised how many CEOs would join in to give advice and their depth of experience on certain blog sites. No longer.

There are a lot of moving parts in a mine site, and a lot more in a large mining operation. To think, as a passive remote investor you have enough information to run the mine, is, a little naieve. To be polite.

There are some excellent exploration results, be it greenfields, or brown... but do I have enough information to make a call on how commercially significant these are? ... not really...an informed guess?...marginally....

Lets have good discussion, good observations,

To have a look at Andrew Pardey have a look at the share price of Predictive Discovery .... since he joined...going nowhere slowly ...

good luck all...

~

the gnome

THanks Spoon ...

Granted about utility, but if utility is the true measure, then what would you pay for a Gucci Hand Bag.

Hint look at link ... https://www.gucci.com/au/en_au/pr/women/handbags/clutches-evening-bags-for-women/gucci-horsebit-1955-small-shoulder-bag-p-735178AACSV9041

Further hint Do not do the above ...

There is a strongly held belief that we live in a world where markets are free and that it is only because markets are free that people are free. If you want to see alternatives to this view then simply think....

I used to think like this, and came up with some ridiculous valuations for many things that we needed, and then more ridiculous valuations for things we did not need, ... and that was before I got married. A diamond ring?

Then we had kids and quite a few and values changed again.!?

I hold gold in various forms because it is in my DNA. Ever walked into some of the old churches in Spain and France...Italy, ....

With a fiat bit of paper in your hand ...

go the Aussies...tough call against India

Go Gold

the gnome

"IT'S LIKE GOLD"

Investment firms say they buy farmland because it is resilient to inflation, offers stable returns through land leases and has limited downside risk, features that became more attractive after the 2008 financial crash pushed investors to build diversified portfolios.

"It's a hard asset. It's like gold. It's not going anywhere," said David Gladstone, CEO of Gladstone Land, a real estate investment trust which owns 116,000 acres of farmland, mostly growing blueberries, strawberries, almonds, and other produce, across 15 states at a value of $1.6 billion.

With the growing distrust of governments and financial markets...no surprises here .. just like gold.

The NCREIF farmland index has averaged an 11.4% annual return over the past 25 years, compared to 9.3% for the S&P 500 index, according to an August Gladstone investor presentation.

best

the gnome

The headline point of the following piece is that the nature of the conflict between the United States and China is changing in an important way that reduces the odds of a military war (my very rough estimate is about 35% over the next 10 years) though this new type of ”war” will remain very intense and threatening.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risks-us-china-military-war-have-declined-new-type-has-ray-dalio-dck8e/

China has been on a full-out gold shopping spree — topping up its gold reserves each month for the last 12 months. However, the official numbers are not even close to the actual amounts China is buying, according to Dominic Frisby, Founder of FlyingFrisby.com.

The latest data out of China showed that its central bank bought gold for the 12th consecutive month in October. The latest purchase was around 23 metric tons, which increased the total holdings to 2,215 tons, the World Gold Council reported.

Overall, China's government has recently been among the biggest gold stockpilers during what looks to be another record-breaking year of central bank gold purchases.

...there is a shifting to a different type of war. The goal of both sides in this new type of war is to win without getting into a bloody, military war (!!!). The Chinese version of this type of war is well described in The Art of War, written around the 5th century BCE by Sun Tzu. It is mandatory reading for anyone who cares to understand Chinese thinking about war. This approach was echoed by Deng Xiaoping when he led China. It is to “hide your strength, bide your time” (tao guang yang hui)—i.e., get yourself into a superior position by quietly building up your strengths so as to not appear threatening to the opposition until you are strong enough to show them so they will submit. This type of war is fought by using deception, by having the other side expend resources while saving one’s own, and by using the opponent’s own circumstances to weaken them and take advantage of their weakness. This type of war is much more like chess or Go than a fistfight. The Chinese have much more practice and skill in playing this type of game because they have more history that they have derived more continuous learning from. Meanwhile, the United States is doing itself a lot of harm.

They are off financing/fighting Russia, and then having a go at Palestinians, Iran, middle east... no capacity to learn ... not with such an enormous standing army, can one blame them ... and defence (offence) force (s)

My money is on China...US is divided inside, divided outside, very chequered track record on matters like democracy, but likes to chat a lot about this a lot ... yet to determine what their conflicts of interests are, but likes to chat a lot ....

good luck to us all ...

the gnome

The mistaken US opinion poles.....The US Economy is in good shape? But unhappiness about the economy is widespread.

Two-thirds of respondents (68%) reported it’s difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month (Republicans: 69%, Democrats: 68%).

Two-thirds of Americans (65%) believe that the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be rather than better (35%).

In August the unemployment rate was 3.8%, close to a 50-year low. But the poll found that 51% wrongly believe that unemployment is nearing a 50-year high rather than those who believe it’s actually low (49%).

Biden supporters have just launched a $13m advertising campaign extolling the president’s economic achievements, which include a landmark $1.2tn infrastructure and climate bill, massive investment in domestic microchips production and green energy solutions. His legislative actions are predicted to create 1.5m jobs per year for the next decade.

and who pays for Biden economics, but then again, we wont have to worry, as Trump looks good, even from a jail cell LOL

Have a good weekend, and put some money on Austraia in the cricket

the gnome

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_kKAeh6qyc

Thanks Paul

The Maxwell innings was magic. It would be hard enough to do that when you are 100% fit but with his raft of ailments, just incredible...last 70 runs scored on one leg?!

Match highlights (and it was a great game of cricket)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31pI72xop4k

And the after match interview with Maxwell, worth listening to

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqX9Pl0HiXk

Its a pity the Israelis and Palestinians cant solve their differences on the cricket field

best

the Gnome