Member Info for goldgnome

The five major forces that Dalio says always lead to the tectonic shifts are in play ...

First force is the build-up of government debt, which Dalio says historically leads to economic crises as governments struggle to attract borrowers with ever-higher interest rates, and they invent crisis to distract citizens from their depressing realities, buried under well leaning indices ...like cpi...

the big story on Thursday night was an auction of 30-year US government bonds, which saw weak demand despite a price of 4.837 per cent, the highest-yielding long-bond auction of its kind since 2007. hmmm ... not so appealing in the context of our times?

Dalio’s second force is political conflict inside countries, as the extreme left and extreme right battle over growing inequalities..we know the US is approaching civl war and alarming levels of stupidity from those that should know better, 13 per cent of Australian households don’t have enough income to cover their mortgage payments and expenses, having followed the advice of the Reserve Bank a few years ago!..and the government throws another $0.6b on a poorly articulated cause of referendum, called the VOICE, when it should have been called the MESS.

Dalio’s third force is geopolitical conflict,..enough on that..Ukraine, Israel, and common participant the saviour of the universe, the USA

The fourth mega force is acts of nature, such as natural disasters and pandemics..we have predictions of a red hot summer full of flames ... etc.. although we have floods and very low temperatures...media predictions have been shown to be a tad unreilable?

Dalio’s fifth force : “The force of humanity’s inventiveness, most importantly in inventing new technologies.”.. well hopefully we can get a lot more productivty and social impact out of the internet than lots of likes, impressions, fraud, false news, and legions of useuless hackers.

So the fiat printing machine is in full swing, debt which no one is investing in and and gold should be fabulous

dont despair, but do your own research...

the gnome

Well there is a lot going on, and interesting to think where we are in the debt/conflict cycle ... ?

It is unlikely that this Israel-Hamas war will be limited to Israel and the Gaza Strip and likely that it will continue until one side clearly wins over the other. It is also likely that the wars involving Israel, Hamas, Ukraine, and Russia will have big effects on the ongoing great power conflicts, and it is VERY LIKELY that Hamas acted with support from more powerful countries.

the US is now fighting proxy wars in Europe and the Middle East while preparing for war in East Asia. As these wars spread, they will cost more.

when the leading empire is experiencing debt problems and great internal conflict and seems more vulnerable on the world stage, many different countries will push to get what they want, adding to the overall picture of the global balance of power

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a 16-year high last week, climbing to 4.884%. In the meantime, the 30-year Treasury bond yield crossed above 5% – something also not seen since 2007.

Debt for sale but who will be buying...

This trifecta of events puts a lot of pressure on developing countries and lowers global demand for U.S. Treasuries and U.S. government debt instruments.

"Developing countries have dollar-dominated debt. And that debt is hardening relative to their cash flows, their own currencies are weakening versus the dollar while oil is strong. And ironically, there's an inverse relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields."

When the U.S. dollar rises, other countries buy fewer Treasuries because of the high exchange rate, and yields tend to go "A lot of the foreign buyers are pulling back their purchases of Treasuries because they're more in currency defense mode," she said.

Making things worse is how quickly the U.S. dollar index has advanced, leading to developing countries going on a U.S. Treasuries' "buyer's strike."

how is gold, Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. economy going to react if the U.S. government did shut down this fall...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-10-11/The-next-challenge-Who-will-be-buying-U-S-debt-Lyn-Alden.html

regards

The gnome

Agreed, dont worry about the short term market if you are a long term investor, except grab the opportunities when they present

They can take the transport costs, petrol, diesel out of the Inflation index of course, LOL

The cost of the Australian newspapers has gone up 300% in the last few years, so I took them out of my shopping index (with the amount of BS in them , they should never have got in, in the first place !)

Sorry about that

couldn´t resist, go gold!

The Gold Gnome, safe in a golden bunker...

What is the sustainability case for gold?

In the 1990s there were 180 major gold discoveries

In the 2000s there were 117 major gold discoveries

In the 2010s there were 42 major gold discoveries

Like to make a guess how many there will be in the 2020s. Hint land access is getting more problematical. Deposits getting deeper and lower grade. No new gold exploration tools for hidden deposits ...no direct detection tools ...

good luck with finding new gold deposits...in short supply

the gnome

Iran is the master mind, and you know what follows, Other islamic nations could be complicit...and you know what follows ... sadly. You can bank on the us$ LOL

Perhaps a better strategy than declaring war on China...LOL.

When will humanity evolve?

good luck to all

the gnome

War has been declared in Israel. Sadly.

As I posted previously, I and a few others think there are more important things at play in the US. One of them is Ray Dallio who comments (briefly)

In this, the latest episode of this drama, Kevin McCarthy tried to piece together a deal and a vote that required some Republicans and some Democrats to come together to support it. This was one of several bipartisan votes for this Congress that McCarthy helped to engineer in his tenuous position as the Republican speaker of the house (including Ukraine funding, raising the debt ceiling, etc.) that led to him being booted out and accused of being disloyal to his party. While I sympathize with those who worry about the increasing growth in debt, I am even more concerned about who has what powers and the choices that are being made to fight rather than to cooperate across party lines and view this development as another step away from democracy and toward civil war.

I hope it is now clear that the two parties are squaring off into monolithic blocks that are controlled by uncompromising, win-at-all-costs extremists and that most everyone will be forced to pick a side and fight for it. While this tendency is most obvious in the Republican Party, it is also true for those in the Democratic Party. (Though the Democratic Party wisely chooses to make it less obvious, it very apparently demonstrates it in the ideological conflicts that are taking place throughout government, especially in congressional committees.) This is now a fight to win-at-all costs game in which just about anything goes, including fighting dirty (lying and cheating), and respect for the system doesn’t matter much.

Nothing new with his comment on lying and cheating which is part of US business and politics and has been for more than 100 years. It is disappointing to see it going to new levels of stupidity. Good luck the US$

Very concerning that trust has left the US

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhAGPQE0H-U

A general trend in the past is when you have a high level of disarray in the past, they start a war (in the name of democracy or something like this), but this time it might be internal ?

cheers

Insto's hold about 70% of CEY. Institutional investors commonly compare their own returns to the returns of a commonly followed index. So they generally do consider buying larger companies that are included in the relevant benchmark index (!), and it follows they are strongly influenced by the index. Index is strongly influenced by POG. POG is down about 7% in the last month... The index is down 9-10%.

ETFs ... The third consecutive monthly outflow from North American funds – of US$2.7bn (-44t) – was the largest since September 2022 (-US$3.2bn, -60t). As the US economy continues to defy recession expectations, with resilience in household consumption, the 10-year Treasury yield rose further.

WGC Aug 2023 survey revealed that 24% of central banks intend to increase their holding reserves in the next 12 months.

No Tier 1 gold discoveries made in the last 5 years...

So it depends a lot on time orizons, and a few imponderables ...

good luck punters

the gnome

Thanks Cowichan

I would think it would be required by the market regulators, to inform the market of a top 10 movement. In Oz we have wording ... Under Listing Rule 3.1, an entity must disclose all information concerning it that it becomes aware of from any source and of any character, if a reasonable person would expect the information to have a material effect on the price or value of its securities.

Gold Price futures are all over the place in the sort term, but in the longer term all are up. Compared to other sources and experts, JPMorgan's forecast is higher than the average consensus forecast of $2,100 per ounce for 2024 and higher than most other forecasts that expect a moderate or a negative change in gold prices. A fair weight of money.

https://russellinvestments.com/au/blog/making-sense-of-us-dollar

There is huge appeal ot me ot break away from the US$ hegemony, and it is hard to think this will not happen. It introduces unfair assymetries into the market, China is rapidly expanding its global trading reach. It is well recognised that China has become the world’s largest trading nation. Less appreciated is the effect this has had in displacing the United States from its traditional dominance as a trading partner for other countries around the world. China’s economy is far more export driven than the US, it is deeply enmeshed in global supply chains, and has been growing much faster.

https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/charts/china-us-trade-dominance/us-china-competition/

In terms of policy drivers, many factors have been at play. But China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organisation has clearly been central, with the number of countries trading more with China than with the United States increasing rapidly thereafter. The US has been very unhappy with this for obvious reasons, and I think this drives a lot of the sabre rattling from the US, but rattle all they like, once the dragon awakes...As Napoleon said, "That is a sleeping dragon. Let him sleep! If he wakes, he will shake the world." He is well and truly awake, and the opionions of conflicted experts and "social influencers" in the west won't count a lot. The sun will rise in the east.

Aside ...Dont you love the US tipping system in the restaurants and arond....the minumum suggested tip is 20% now. Why dont they just pay people properly...full employment LOL

good luck

The Gnome.

3bear

There are plenty of clowns around, best let them run their race, and in the mean time firm up your race, and I am firming mine,

Really so much PAID stupidity around and unpaid helpers, its no wonder people get confused

the gnome

Mr Bond

I comment on the US having spent 5 weeks on their eastern coast. This country is fundamentally divided, has been for 100 plus years, and this divide will ultimately drive end of empire. Worse, it is leaderless. Even worse is a health care system which has one of the highest costs of healthcare in the world. In 2021, U.S. healthcare spending reached $4.3 trillion (2021 GDP was $23.3 trillion so thats 18.4% (and growing)! debt $28.4 trillion (and growing)), which averages to about $12,900 per person. By comparison, the average cost of healthcare per person in other wealthy countries is only about half as much. But it delivers appalling outcomes for Americans to boot.

Americans own $1.77 trillion in federal and private student loan debt as of the second quarter of 2023 (and increasing every quarter), ... and so on and so forth .... Its hard not to think of a massive Ponzi scheme, yet the US$ is the Global Currency? Quite a bizarre structure, made stable by the fact there are no caps on the amount of debt that the USA can issue...

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2023/07/how-does-the-us-healthcare-system-compare-to-other-countries

and somehow there is an argument that the value of gold in terms of uS$ is going to go down?

good luck everyone...dont get caught holding the fiats

the gold gnome

Sorry to bother you again, but livingin the past is not an infallible guide to the future...

It can be misguiding

I would take Pardey with a pinch of Salt, as big as a salt lake in West Australia! LOL

I would belive in fairies first, what a joke

Do your own research only my personal opinion of course, and what would I know..~~~

CEY are in far better hands

the gnome

The currency of a country which is broke bar its ability to print as much money as it wants ....is the back bone of the global financial system..LOL

He must be a young man, and if so good luck to him.

To spend much of his life p$ssing into the wind is an interesting if not fool hardy strategy.

best to all~the gnome

JEREMY GRANTHAM , The US economy is “beginning to unravel” and a recession is a 70 per cent probability. He would be “very careful with real estate all over the world” given “20 years of declining mortgage rates have driven real estate to really crushing high multiples of family income”.

And just to top it all off, he sees only a 50/50 chance of coming through the huge range of long-term problems the world faces with “the relatively steady civilisation that we’ve enjoyed for the last 70 years”.

Cest la vie ?

the gnome

The bonanza gfrade gold has been reported on and photgraphed for years Nothing new here.

Interesting to compare the grades they have been quoting, lets say gram-meters, witht hat of one of the lowest cost gold deposit in the world. The Forsterville underground gold mine~~~

"Three very different operations had the lowest production costs in 2019. Costs at Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.'s Fosterville decreased by nearly 70% from 2014 to 2019, with paid gold production increasing from 105,000 ounces per year to 618,000 oz/y over the period. The reason for the cost reduction was the completion of a mine expansion into the high-grade Lower Phoenix and Swan deposits, which increased head grade to 39.60 grams of gold per tonne of ore from 4.62 g/t Au in 2014. This also led to an overall increase in the 10 lowest-cost mines' average grade in 2019. The higher grades increased gold production by 73% year over year, while AISC in U.S. dollars increased by 10%, leading to a lower overall AISC in terms of U.S. dollars per ounce."

https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/world-top-10-lowest-costs-gold-mines-WS.html

Note the low AISC was not achieved overnight, but rather by careful, methodical exploration worked, backed by some good luck and a solid mining plan.

I continue to watch how the underground gold mine develops at Sukari. As I have posted previously I would not be surprised to see this be the next jewell in the crown.

The history of that mines development and conitnued success is worth reading

https://www.agnicoeagle.com/English/operations/operations/Fosterville-Gold-Mine/default.aspx

With the completion in February 2022 of the merger between Agnico Eagle and Kirkland Lake Gold, the Fosterville mine ranks as the Company’s lowest cost operation with total cash costs anticipated to be US$457 per ounce gold in 2023 on production of 305,000 ounces of gold

If CEY play their cards right, and do some solid geology, mine plannig right infrastructure, which they seem to be doing now, then I wont be surprised if this lights up and becomes major plank in their future success

best

the gnome

Mr Tibs

Do you know how many secret groups in the \uk that are involved in money laundering and tax evasion_?

I suspect a few more than Egypt

Weather is lovely in New York, and I have lost count of how many groups there are involved in money laundering here, and that was before breakfast

regards

the Gnome

All miners are suffering form the same causes... AISC increasing, to state the obvious