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Well Matt didn’t like my comment and he’s blocked me!
Accused him of smoke and mirrors around ingenuity and the GMV comment. Take from his response what you will but maybe there’s a reason it’s hit a nerve?
Southcoast just for completeness please let us know how you think a provision works and what the cash flow are of the court case
Are you thinking it is as this
1) boohoo get sued
2) boohoo pays £18m as a “provision” even though it hasn’t lost or won or even knows what it will lose for if it does
3) boohoo settles case so gets some money back
Serious question not meaning to cause offence. I'm genuinely asking
It’s a provision. Yes it impacts profit but it doesn’t impact cash! Therefore it’s nothing to do with the leverage calculation
Omg idiots. T4G you genuinely think this is right? Ha
So let me get this right. What you two think is
1) boohoo get sued
2) boohoo pays £18m as a “provision” even though it hasn’t lost or won or even knows what it will lose for if it does
3) boohoo settles case so gets some money back
That’s how you think this actually works? Madness
No it’s not! A provision is none cash
Debit - P&L and credit - liability therefore NO CASH
All that will happen is the provision is unwound. The amount boohoo settled for will be cash out of the door. The balance is unwound as I said
T4G this is not looking good for you
T4G I posted my workings for the debt as I saw the debate. It’s not difficult. You’re the one who claims my numbers are wrong or lies yet we haven’t seen yours. Also my range was 1x and noting down to 0.5x but I was clear to say the low end doesn’t feel right or they would have said that
You are the one who keeps making wild claims. Like similarweb. Where is the reconciliation for that gold standard data?
On Missguided I really don’t get your point I never said anything like what you’re claiming I said. My point was around GMV and capacity for the US warehouse which boohoo will need as it’s expensive (this is why as an investors as well researched as you I’d expect you’d have a view on Asos EBIT margin for us ops - but you don’t)
It also seems now you don’t know how provisions work and thought it was a cash item!
Is there anything you’ve got right?
Ha you actually think a business pays out for a court case before they have even lost?
You actually think that’s what happened here. Please explain what you actually think happened and the accounting
It’s the whole point of a “provision” it’s a liability you might have to pay
It was a provision. No cash was paid. There won’t be any cash coming back for that as none went out anyway!
Honestly you’ve done cash flow on a linear basis and now have got provision accounting wrong. Fellas this ain’t good
T4G why aren’t you telling me where my numbers are wrong? Also why are you quiet on similarweb?
What cash coming back? I addressed cash directly in each month to Feb
Also T4G doing his usual strategy of can’t think of any more wiggle room or how he can manipulate so just chooses to be rude
Why can’t you ever admit you don’t know what you’re talking about? Where’s the similarweb support?
Really think people need to calm down around the £1bln GMV client. We haven’t the foggiest what that even means
Or how that even compares to GMV of today
It’s smoke and mirrors and you make yourself look stupid keep saying it
No that’s not correct at all. To assume it just runs cash on a linear basis is fundamentally incorrect
It’s called working capital and for boohoo it’s seasonal. Take peak Christmas trading which we’ve just had. 2/3 months before then boohoo will design and order stock (even shorter lead times tbh for fast fashion items - a boohoo strength). No cash out of the door but you build a big tank of creditors. So to be clear cash impact is 0
Boohoo sell that stock over Christmas. Exclude delays from banks and wholesalers the customer pays boohoo when they buy. So at this trading update boohoo is flush with cash as it’s all come in from Christmas selling
Now the months to YE. Boohoo now has to pay those suppliers it got the stock from back in oct/nov. This is against Jan and Feb sales which are seasonally weaker
So the business gives out cash a lot more heavily over the next two months due to this. Plus you have capex which you missed out
Make sense? But looking at it on a linear basis is just wrong
South coast that’s today. The figures we are referring to are the guidance for the year end
We haven’t got the incorrect figure at all it’s the companies guidance. You do the maths then and tell us it’s wrong
And again you’ve missed out the third paragraph I wrote where I said it could be 0.5x but unlikely as that’s not the guidance
What is wrong in what I’ve said. Back up your points like a big boy
Also where is this similarweb rec? Or are you ignoring that one now?
The irony in that in another thread you’re accusing someone of “cherry picking” yet you’ve just done that to me
Here’s my full post
“I get the £60m as last years revenue minus 12% and then multiply by 3.5%
The guidance is then “debt will be less than that” so saying will be around £60m or a shade under at the YE
If it was materially lower they would guide to it being 0.5x EBITDA, wouldn’t they?”
How do you keep trying to have the moral high ground when you are the one who keeps adding words or misquoting people?
It’s insanity. But will you apologise for this blatant underhand tactic. Of course not
I was quite honest in my answer that it’s a range. I never made it as big as possible and I also admitted it has a lower end
Don’t be upset as you calculated it wrong
T4G moving this to the top so you can find it easily. Myself and others would appreciate the reconciliation
I get the £60m as last years revenue minus 12% and then multiply by 3.5%
The guidance is then “debt will be less than that” so saying will be around £60m or a shade under at the YE
If it was materially lower they would guide to it being 0.5x EBITDA, wouldn’t they?
PMoran I’ll let T4G tell you how it’s “correct” as he will reconcile for us the 94m visit / month for Asos shown on similarweb to the 3billion visits (web and app) that Asos give in their annual accounts
I don’t get why T4G is calling me a liar as I’ve been clear where the source was
Also t4g the only lie told here is you adding words to what I said!
It’s a bit annoying that we haven’t seen a fund top up it’s holding at these levels
Octopus were buying heavy at over £8
My point is T4G is how can you even know the US warehouse will be a good things if you’ve no idea what the EBIT margin is likely to be? That’s a key part of investing
Also just to clarify in the cuts from September it has the cuts from May which shows you exactly what I said re Missguided. I never said what you claim I said. You still have the old habit of adding words to other people it seems
Also how can you claim similarweb is any good I’ve just told you it’s out massively vs the official number provided by both Asos and boohoo. How is that diligent what you are saying?
That’s not a THG site at all
Fine but teh original point stands that Similarweb data isn't worthwhile as it's wildly out. It doesn't reconcile to the actual figure at all so it discredits your original point however you cut it
Also you haven't answered re the margin on Asos US business. Do you know what that is?
Re missguided we went through this around Sep time and I cut and paste for you what I said and it was nothing as you claim
Here's the message from 28th of Sep
"I never said the point about superior customer base. You can't keep adding things to make others wrong. Missguided consistently posted revenues above £200m so there clearly was loyalty
The bits you're saying are "mendacity" you won't find as I never said them. They were elements you just added to my quotes to try and say I was wrong!
You won't find them. The only one who never shows up with the goods is you"
and heres the other
""I think it’s a good move. Cost nothing extra to run it as you can just run this through the boohoo infrastructure (warehouses etc)
Also Missguided is a popular brand in the US which is where boohoo needs to win (hard). This brand, being popular in the US is another which de risks the big US warehouse investment
Goldy"
I said it's popular (which it was) but the point being it's extra GMV to cover the costs of that US warehouse. I haven't said it was a gamechanger. Good to see you've not changed and still either moving goal posts or putting words to people taht they didn't say!"
Hope this helps