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"plus potential large ingenuity clients at advanced stage (they wouldn't have said this if not realistic)"
So not like the time we were told there were 400 contracted and scheduled to launch websites which just "vanished?"
Also not like the update two months ago which said we will deliver 15% sales growth for the year and into Q4 and it was negative?
No you're right there's no way MM will just say stuff
FCF needed 15% growth for next year and year after. So back solve, even with the cost cuts you mention, it's way off if revenue doesn't grow
Just because management say it doesn't mean it will happen. If sales do a miserable 3% growth again next year you'll miss FCF even with the cost reductions and improved whey price
The bit missing from the puzzle is what is meant by "maintenance capex" and tbh I want localised product in asia so I guess that is out of the frame for even longer
Ingenuity GMV. We don't have a clue what margin. Fulfilment was at 0% margin so who knows!
You could make the point that the lack of inventory impacted sales ie did we not have the right products or quantity? Obviously we don't know but with no analyst call we can't ask
No call again is a joke!
Hosai take out the £75m inventory unwind and it wasn't FCF positive this year. You can't play that card twice
Also FCF positive next year based on what revenue numbers? If revenue is flat the FCF forecast doesn't work. You've got to move all the parts
The update is very mixed. The revenue was HUGE miss and beauty actually went backwards from my *** packet review. This contradicts MM saying it would be 15% growth and it was actually negative!
Agree Royal Mail strikes impacted but also new competition from Sephora. Not a great performance
Nutrition revenue is underwhelming. Again we are selling the same product at a 60% uplift to PY so if volumes are steady then revenue should be up materially from 2%. This means volumes must have been impacted. So is this lost customers (I don't think so although we did see that in the H1 results) or customers just buying less. It's a mix and we have no view on how this will reverse
FCF of £50m is also poor. H2 is the cash machine months (peak trading days etc) and once you take out the £75m inventory unwind (which you can't do twice) the underlying FCF was negative!
The big win here is cost cutting and I think there will be more to come and it can't come soon enough!
Ingenuity...poor again. The £1bln new revenue sounds great but this is the 6th yarn we have been spun. We need some concrete news and I really hope we get some
So I'm on the fence. Would like to add some if we see 50's
Happy to have an adult debate with people but if the above "hurts your feelings" then this isn't the post thread for you
I’ve not been sanctimonious. You literally made a post directly for me to say me saying this was rubbish
How big is your ego? Ha you do a direct post to call me out and then the RNS says what I told you
This is like you not understanding how an options works all over again
“ the removal of duplicated costs, procurement and payroll efficiencies. Group-wide headcount reduction of c. 2,000 employees following elevated investment over recent years, achieved through managed attrition”
Please remember your box today
How good last quarter was? THG missed massively on beauty revenue
I agree the results need to be stellar or there might be a drop. The main catalysts will be
1) M&A - THG has sold or taken investment
2) cost cutting or scaling back (Asos cutting £300m and aiming for FCF was well received)
3) profit upgrade - likely to come from whey
Can’t put anything past MM but my view remains that this business would be better being just myprotein
I moved a chunk to JD. Not been terrible
On the staff point I don’t get why you’re so excited about that. There isn’t an e-commerce retailers who hasn’t or isn’t cutting jobs. Just THG are doing it in a less public way which I think is better as it stops any negative sentiment
Again we all know you’re biased and only listen to yourself so you take anything how you want
I wonder if they will announce the partnership with Gordan Ramsey tomorrow?
Not included as it was never drawn. It just means another vanity project has been binned
Not this again!
I watch “last chance U” on Netflix. Always thought that would be a great partnership
I think given the very strong rise over the last week or so the THG numbers will need to be good now. Not a repeat of the Q3 miss
Asos I think is a mixed bag the sales numbers were poor. In the U.K. especially. What I think drove Asos today was the big slash to costs. This is exactly what I was referring to with Ingenuity. If you think Asos can slash £300m then what whale of a number would you be looking at with THG
It really shows if this was a slimmed down Nutrition business it would be very profitable and we’d have a very strong share price
THG will need to give some cost reform for sure
Dg your wife shopped Sephora and women’s best! Outrageous. You need to get that addresssed
On THG orders one thing I noticed is their boxes charged just before peak to stop saying “powered by THG ingenuity” and all the brand logos went off the boxes
My suspicion was that this was due to THG boxes being stolen. Which to me makes sense as if you’re a courier and see a small THG box the reality is it’s likely filled with expensive make up
I found this change positive but their boxes are still really weak. They have perforated edges on the fold which means I do get split boxes quite often
Agree but hopefully the up tick today highlights the CME event went well
IF (and it's and if) the share price could crawl back to £6 I wonder if shareholders would support a small raise to take the top end of the debt away? If you could raise £50m and see 8 - 10% dilution when we are back at £10 you'd have only lost £1
Also doing this, along with the £10m NWC unwind, might in part help a re-rate as cashflow would improve and debt would be around £100m - £110m
Next year looks neutral for cash flow given consideration payments and exceptionals but after that, if no more M&A, you would be expecting FCF to be exciting (in a good way)
Agree Oke and this was my point last week. What in ingenuity do you think boots don’t have already?
It’s not special or unique to have tech and fulfilment capability to put a parcel in someone’s hands
Boots etc were obviously well behind but they have now caught up
seems something has set a light
2phevs absolute nonsense
There’s £14bln of capacity. THG brands take £2bln and you leave a £1bln spare are run way
How big do we think a “whale” is for GMV and then what product? I’m sorry if you’re not selling £1bln aspirin via D2C
Absolute nonsense
A friend works in the finance team at THG. She wouldn’t say more
It came up as I was asking why THG haven’t done what shopify etc have done and slashed jobs. This was the answer she gave
There’s nothing gambling about what I said. Maybe explain that? Or was it a poorly executed attempt to mock me after I sent you over the boundary for 6 last week?
Either way your ego seems bruised. As I said roulettes red or black might suit you better
Had wanted to buy this but will wait for 60p or less