Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
There’s a 10 out 2 to 3 policy. Been going on a few months. Can’t say more
When PE coming calling…I think so
Management need capital to keep growing and PE will be attracted to that grow and potential for international
The debt also won’t be an issue as PE could fund upfront and refi down the line. Be a very big cheque at £1bln but there are funds that could do it (or together)
@stockbroker no these are exclusive with Iceland. Iceland manufacture them
Iceland want footfall so they won’t be selling these elsewhere in U.K. I do agree with you would have been amazing g if this was Tesco but the quality here seems great so all in all I’m happy and it starts a blue print for row especially Japan
But the Next online sales weren’t great? Flat
Full listing will make 0 difference. There isn’t a large fund that’s tech or growth focused that hasn’t been or isn’t an investor in THG
All you’re missing is a bit of index buying which is marginal. But the funds that dominate ftse 100 want yield and stability. So they won’t be buyers here (even if they might have been in the past)
Also no divi locks more funds out anyways
I just bought the bundle deal
Why do they keep referring to it as exclusive if it’s obvious iceland will also sell these to Tesco?
Looks good though and I’ll be trying
Kando games workshop is a great idea but as you say total revneue now of £414m is total revenue including stores. It would be one very big journey to £500m of pure online sales and there’s the other side of whether games workshop could service demand if they could create it (ie can they manufacture double the output and the answer would be that would also take a few years)
So a good suggestion but it doesn’t fit the criteria atleast not for 3 - 5 years
Moonpig doesn’t work for the ingenuity commerce service as they can do most of what THG can do (they employ hundreds of data scientists etc) also fulfilment for them would be easy as it mainly letters
I suspect the reason moonpig don’t play in the US is cost of building a brand vs cheaper organic growth in U.K. and Europe where they have established brands. So I’d say yeah they could go to USA and THG could sort of help (but in all fairness why wouldn’t moonpig buy their own printers for the cards? And then just duplicate their U.K. tech or run it from the U.K.
And would THG just buy these very expensive printers for one client which would be a 3-5 year contract and could leave after? Doesn’t seem worth it
What THG need is more like the vape stuff where it’s purely just moving stock. We need less of the specialist stuff as that’s more expensive capex out the door and then more warehouse space for it. Items which fit into Autostore along side beauty and nutrition is the key
The thing with the vape one though is why use ingenuity over a much cheaper shopify website and amazon delivery or dhl? The sell for ingenuity was that you needed a seamless one party solution but these pretty much are now as as I say third parties build the APIs as shopify is open source
Canary you’re the one who admitted you’re gambling so what value are you adding here?
DG I don’t think it’s just me who’s spotted this is it? Maybe the investors from ipo and all the way up 800p also spotted this also? What about Blackrock who bailed and said in their report it was as they saw the need for cash as their reason to sell?
It was said by analysts all along that Ingenuity was in a tough space and was “nascent” it was never an easy or guaranteed success. There were lots of media reports that asked what was special about ingenuity
Or what about the capital markets day where everyone left so underwhelmed by the explanation of ingenuity that the company lost £2bln in market cap in a day?
Does that help?
@mumbo thanks. But you’ll now get some abuse (Canary although he won’t ever back up anything he says which is how you know he’s thinking through fear and upset - traits of the gambler who doesn’t understand the game)
Can a omeone tell me what it is about ingenuity that Asos can’t do? Apart from big content studio (and Asos have those) or warehouses in a few extra territories
But from the point of website to the customer getting the parcel what is it that THG has that Asos don’t
It’s not special it’s purely that we were going to monetise it rather than just keep for ourselves. That’s it. It was seen as unique vs shopify who set out to be suppliers vs THG which built it for itself. That was the main USP
You all “like” the comments that say what I’m saying is rubbish when I say Asos can do this but yet no one can say what is it that’s special about ingenuity. Come on “investors”
And sorry to add with why THG are carrying on us at ipo the £800m raised as primary capital was mainly for warehouse roll out and ingenuity so bit of an embarrassment to say “yeah we wasted £800m on some largely empty warehouses”
But the facts are the facts. This business is worth more just as just nutrition (beauty sold for some cash to pay debt and also expenses for getting out the current world)
Kando which business do you think is doing £300m - £500m online sales and doesn’t yet have an ingenuity or partner platform helping?
I’d love if you could give three names given you think signing up 7 or so is possible
DG the ingenuity dream was sold at IPO, it hardly existed before other than just ad hoc services to third parties which were customers from legacy THG acquisitions ie hosting for unilever. It wasn’t that Ingenuity had been in the plan long before
The answer to your question though is 1) world is different as covid over so online isn’t as pressing now (hence the 400 contracted sites bailed) 2) marketplaces are growing now online so D2C isn’t seen as as vital for SME operators (maybe why the pivot to whales now?) and 3) THG genuinely thought they had something special which to a point they did but everyone else took a closer look and just added in the parts they couldn’t do
For example shopify both internal and third party capex dwarfs THG. The £150m we spend is on tech and physical assets. When you look at shopify you have shopify spending the same on capex but then an army of third parties who build “apps” for the platforms but as shopify is open source these all work seamlessly
Ingenuity is closed protocol so a lot of client get put off from that as it means if there’s something in your current system you like you might not be able to keep or if there’s a bit of ingenuity you want to swap out it might not be possible
This meant clients turned down THG for flexibility and also THG has to build connections for all sorts of third party systems which made it slow to have an offer for the addressable market
Ingenuity is addressing this and you’ve seen this in more recent RNS and updates in that they are trying to make the offer more productised (can you use ingenuity commerce but the items you want - this is different from just using one product which has always been offered)
So I’m not saying THG were wrong just that world has changed and the dream hasn’t happened. From IPO ingenuity was forecast to be pushing £400m commerce revenue next year. You tell me how close to target that feels
Canary try the casino. It’s 100% upside on a 50:50. Hope this help and saves you some time
Again not a single support of ingenuity which has a number in it. Set aside “hope” or “want” and give a fact
As I said land a £1billion GMV whale (who that would be or a handful which add to this) you’d get £40m of revenue at 60% EBITDA margin that’s £24m of FCF. Ingenuity still would be miles off being profitable
If you think the business is doing £150m EBITDA all while paying for the ingenuity dream it shows you how profitable nutrition actually is! It’s D2C when others aren’t. That should attract a great premium and leave you with c.200 - 250p share price
Generally look at ingenuity, the few updates and ask yourself do you actually see it getting to where they say? When you also bear in mind it’s been a year since Matt said “whales” and one hasn’t landed and also there was a CONTRACTED pipeline of 400 sites which 12 months later turned out not to happen
I want my shares to be worth more. Not a vanity exercise
Dg if some of this is upsetting for you I’d suggest investing isn’t for you. It’s not a negative spin. Ingenuity is just negative and I’m sorry you don’t understand that hence why all your replies don’t have anything in them other than opinion and being offensive
Build it and they will come? Well they aren’t are they. Canary has just shared ANOTHER example of a business that can do what ingenuity can do. It needs to be understood that ingenuity isn’t unique or different there are loads of them out there. Either sold to third parties like shopify or that companies own themselves like Asos and next
My point is how do you make the shares worth more and soon and the answer is nutrition as a standalone business
Glanbia has an EBITDA of £150m or so and worth £3bln. So something is stopping THG being the same and that’s the sinkhole that’s ingenuity!
Also don’t forget pre ipo ingenuity hardly existed anyway. It’s not been a long run and established part of THG as…it’s just the platform for selling online like what Asos has or next
What couldn’t Asos do tomorrow? Or couldn’t add in fairly easy
Big fancy studios isn’t “tech” just to start that
Be specific in your answer but you won’t
How much more do you think we can do for Nestle? How big is the market for buying kit kats online?
Why would anyone buy it? And who?
Also your maths doesn't make sense. £3bln of beauty and nutrition sales at 4% of GMV is £120m as you say. But then Ingenuity has to pay it's cost and capex so it's not FCF at all
You have the group results so you have to reconcile back to that. One of the divisions is making a huge loss as if you use industry EBITDA margins for beauty and nutrition you should be doing well over the Adj.EBITDA we see. So that shows you to what extent ingenuity is a cash pit BEFORE capex as capex isn't though the EBITDA
I'm not saying we have to sell now, right this second. But we could scale back now so we save cash. Stop tech development etc. Just spend capex on what nutrition needs
For example one of the biggest headwinds we have is the weak yen even though Japan is one of myproteins biggest markets. There is no current plan for local manufacture in Asia. Why? as we prioritising ingenuity dream
Instead i'm saying let's do nutrition manufacture in asia
Sell when the time is right of course but in the meantime pump up nutrition
Mando that's not right. Next literally do the same as Ingenuity other than make you a website (which isn't hard to do). Oh and take some content
The push back originally was that ingenuity was unique as it had fulfilment. This was why I said it's not as again next will do that for you
D2C is great and brands do like it. But it's also expensive and that why brands also like being on marketplaces. And marketplace is the fastest growing sector of the market. So again while you make a point (final para) it's not backed up with data. Ingenuity isn't growing!
Also i've not said next isn't a different model. Asos is also a different model. The point was that they could all do ingenuity tomorrow. Next can create websites, do fulfilment, trading, marketing and everything. What would stop it?
Asos could do the whole thing tomorrow, what would stop it? All ingenuity has is an ambition to monetise it in a different way (which I never denied) but there isn't anything in ingenuity which the others don't have or can't plug in in 5 minutes
So a misunderstood point as I never claimed they weren't different revenue models
The part missing from DG's post (which i highlighted the other day) is the op ex costs. Ingenuity excluding capex is still burning cash. £200m of revenues (some of which are at nil margin btw for those who didn't know) isn't paying the bills
The house analogy is a little off. It should be. You live in a big house which is being extended but while you do the wings of the house are taking up all your current income. At this point you can't pay for the extension or your current house so atm it's technically worthless to you other than to sell it
That's where ingenuity is now. The infrastructure is worth something to someone but it has no worth to us as it's just a money pit both including and excluding capex
Do you just want the dream of ingenuity (which isn't growing btw even though all competitors are - so whales are signing up and it's not been with us) or do you want the share price to go up?
At 44p the nuclear option is the best option. MyProtein should be worth billions. It's the cash hole of inegnuity which is holding everything back. It's mad how that can't be seen
Also it's been 14 months since Matt said whales are on the way and so far 0 excluding Matalan for commerce services
Try and look at this in reality and not the ego
No one is disagreeing that you need the infrastructure for the whales but the point is that even if you grabbed a couple it wouldn't make ingenuity profitable. On 4% GMV (which would be for a client taking all the services and most don't) a whale of £1billion GMV would be £40m. This wouldn't make ingenuity profitable
Also stop saying coke. All we do for coke is a D2C website. It's tiny. So tiny that coke european partners don't report about it or even talk about it in their results other than saying "launched a site"
Even though they are coke for Europe they haven't added a single over territory
I do feel like some of you don;t actually understand what ingenuity does. Nestle is the same. It's a handful of sites for it's smaller wellness brands. Purina is a decent site but look how many brands there are on there - it's literally two even though Nestle owns 10 or so pet food brands. So why aren't they all on there?
Also look at the list of clients that have left
The economics is simple. Get rid of these huge empty warehouses, sell beauty and scale myprotein into sites which it needs and then you have a highly profitable leading nutrition brand which using Glanbia valuation or Bellring in the US would have us all well north of £2 a share
You can be worth more as a smaller business