RE: Been thinking a lot how to play this hand today6 Apr 2025 17:46
Looking more closely at the 2023 AA, and the recent RNS, the problem appears to be that we await numbers in respect of "Material restatements are expected for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBIT for FY22 and FY23" - resulting in historic covenant breaches.
"Net debt excluding leases to adjusted EBITDA (excluding the impact of IFRS 16) at 31 December (2023) was 2.08 times on a covenant basis (2022: 1.3 times) against our covenants of 3.5 times". I am no accountant, but it looks like there will be a substantial reduction in EBITDA figure :- (Page 175) "The Group has a large number of fixed price long-term contracts which are accounted for in accordance with IFRS 15 and require estimates to be made for contract revenue. Fixed price contracts revenue from continuing operations amounted to $1,195.3m in 2023 (2022: $1,179.8m), and is comprised of several hundred relatively low value contracts which are ongoing at any one point in time and these often span reporting periods and include small short duration consultancy contracts. They are all at varying stages of completion and carry their own unique risks. Hence, with the exception of the Aegis contract, which is described further in note 2, it is impracticable to provide any meaningful disclosure on the key sensitivities that would impact on revenue recognition, such as those outlined below." I assume this will impact the Projects business income and EBIT figures, and drag the totals down so that the covenants were breached - and will doubtless mean an increase in margin for interest already paid - to be paid at a higher number than previously (the 2023 AA refer to a lower margin being paid that year!). How much of this number was in respect of Projects?
Also, "The increase in the tax charge in 2023 is largely a result of the exceptional tax charge of $18.0 million (2022: $41.6 million credit) on deferred tax assets as a result of actuarial movements on the UK pension scheme".
I am hoping that these changes will not substantially affect SIDARA's view of the value of the business going forward.
IMHO