Member Info for GoCPI

Good luck Crowman... The business is really that derisked, its the cyber uncertainty that's shafting us near term. I have a pretty large holding in CPI, lighter than it was early spring, but a large % of the portfolio nonetheless. There was an 8 mllion buy trade today just before the close - they can see what the low volume sellers can't.

"If there is FCF being generated" - I don't think this was ever in doubt - the key term is sustainable FCF from Core Capita that support return of capital to shareholders, either via dividends or buybacks. There's so much negativity built into the SP at this time that any clarity on the hack fallout could see this rally. I'm waiting to see what the cash flow/profitability forecasts look like - patience needed for 2 more days...

I have added more today. Buy when losers are selling rings good enough to me!!

@Xenor - No, it was a refi of the existing debt coming due this year and next - although it's a bit of a head-scratcher for me. Why would they need to refi any debt when they should have negaive net financial debt by the end of this year? I agree that was confusing - but its good to open up American debt markets to CPI should there be a real need in the future to make synergistic acquisitions.

Poor FearFul doesn't like the look of Adolfo and hence shouldn't be CEO. ROFL...That may just be the best contrarian sign ever. 3 more days to the big reveal, but the lead-up action is a touch disappointing..

The 'wager' on the SP here is whether the hack would be a bigger issue that would suck the complete attention of the management team to the detriment of the overall business - If thats your base case, then CPI is a sell. I sit on the other side of the fence and I'm certainly staying in!!!

Sure - Personally I invest based on cold hard fundamentals and business progress updates, and they're all trending very well for CPI, the cyber hack being a headwind and the final impact is still unknown. I suppose the market is gappling with that part of reality. It is a known known that the UK market is fundamentally undervalued, and CPI more so given these perceived hack headwinds. I can also speculate that some of the sale agreements in principle were delayed because of the hack related concerns - I think they moved forward in June after enough evidence was secured that those businesses were not impacted, and they closed now in early H2, instead of late H1 - these have all been timing issues.

I don't know what the update on Friday will be like, but if we get even a bit of certainty around progress on the hack issue and a steer on dividends that indicates positivity on generating sustainable profits/cash flow, we could have a good run over the next few months. For one, I have no doubt that the cyber hack set the share price further back to where it should've been. and JL may just want to leave at the end of this year with a big hurrah - dividends!!!

We may "NOT" see a big shift in net financial debt from end 2022 to H1 2023...

With a lot of the sale proceeds, notably from today's announced sale closings, received in H2 and with there being a one-time hit (clarity on Friday), we may see a big shift in net financial debt from end 2022 to H1 2023. Hence, any clarity on future liabilities from the cyber hack, will be welcome. Dividend reinstatement OR at least a steer towards them comng back at the of 2023 will be most welcome.

Fingers crossed!!!

Senior notes are asset backed and have a higher priority order when it comes to bond repayments.

I'm not surprised that any refinancing was priced at overnight lending rates at the BOE/Fed (over 5% now) plus a premium. CPI had gross debt of circa £100m and $128m (USD) coming due over the next few years, and they have refinanced some of the more front end of the maturity curve debt. Prudent financial management, IMO

Trisor - I don't have a crystal ball, I'm afraid. The best that CPI can do is to deliver operationally in this 'transformative' year that will see free cash flow being generated on a sustained basis going forwards, and you have Adolfo take over the reins before the end of the year from JL - that augurs well for a sustained digital transformation led growth phase for CPI. I would love to see JL go out with a bang and get the share price past the highs seen in March this year. Good profitability forecasts should do it - all IMO.

Good riddance, FearFul. I for one, would love to see you lose out on the upcoming runup!!!

Good luck to the value investors on here!!!

Would he go out with a big hurrah via a fividend reinstatement? :-)

From the 2022 results conference call , we know that high-earners within CPI (above £120k, from memory) had a salary freeze and that's a positive. We'l just have to see the H1 outcome on Friday and importantly their guidance around further hack related costs going forwards. The UK economy should be seeing the effects of inflation easing up and that's another positive - we could start to dream of a soft/no landing in the US, trickling down here too. Should this scenario materialise, CPI should do mighty fine..

JG68 - as long as CPI's cost increases are lower than the revenue increases that were already forecast in their May update, we should be fine - no rocket science there I suppose. How much of the one-off costs related to the Cyber hack will impact H1 profitability is an unknown as this time and should be clarified on Friday. Unltimately, its the guidance on profitability/cash flow generation in the medium term that should push the SP higher. 4 more trading sessions and we'll know then, won't we?

If MM delivers with a positive growth outlook, THG can be back in the good books of the City and valuations can at least go back to close to growth company valuations. After a series of misses over the past 20 months, I doubt that even MM can conjure up anything disastrous to shaft this recent share price progress. My take - between 150 to 200p by the end of this year. Inflation is finally co-operating with Matt - that's good enough for me in the near term.

Good read about improving SATS performance by CPI this year - all of the political moaning aside.

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/capita-rewarded-for-2022-sats-chaos-as-1-5m-shaved-off-penalty/

"The vegetarian option is onion rings." I'll have them alongside the Calamari.

I've added some more today and my bets are nearly placed now and ready to participate to the upside, IMO. :-) To each their own, but this is basement bargain territory, IMO. With valuations like CPI's (OK, can partly be put down to the hack), is it any wonder that Buffett thinks that the UK stock market is undervalued????

If they need the lowest possible price range for an upcoming MBO, there's an easy answer to that - an earnings/cash flow miss next month would do the trick. Do you think that's what Matt is busy working on, Manifesto?

Total contract value for the 4 lots is £400m and capita was awarded 2 lots - £200m is right. Good addition to the order book.