Member Info for GoCPI

"The tax is really quite similar elsewhere." - No, in the US, it isn't. Not even close!!!

I sold today at £2.10 and will buy back tomorrow at £2.45. What a wonderful way to make money!!!

@Moyes123 - I've only sold a small portion of my THG to buy CPI - I'm holding the rest for now. That's my growth recovery stock play, and CPI is my deep value recovery play. The hacking episode noise has all but drowned out the improving fundamentals and the H1 results will put them out in bright light for all to see. The market has more now more than discounted the near term additional spend addressing the hack and therein is valuation gap, IMO. 2 and half weeks to go!!!

While you're sitting and debating whether CPI will beat expectations for this half and the next, I'm using my gains in THG to accumulate more at these levels. Sub 28p is a bargain, IMO and I currently have no reason to believe that business and profitability/free cash flows will not hold up and actually do well then consensus. We'll know in just over 2 weeks' time, won't we?

DD123 - that I can't disagree with!!

How does the SP get naturally dragged down? Any tell-tale signs that I should keep an eye out for - all inputs welcome..

This was a Bloomberg article - picked up by Washington Post!!!

@Lordy - don't disagree with what you wrote. The point I was making about net debt is that CPI will keep making debt repayments as and when they fall due over the coming years. The interest rate is quite low on the current debt, certainly way lower than the interest we can earn by keeping that cash in money market funds or even 2 year gilts/treasuries, and as such, repaying debt early makes no financial sense. That was the point I was trying to make.

Spot on, Bubbles. We've been well and truly sold down the river by the brexit shiitesters and the outcome is now all too apparent. We have a special kind of sticky inflation as a rather special outcome and the economic malaise is only too obvious to see. It isn't a wonder that stock valuation are relatively in the dumps vis-a-vis rest of Europe, and completely out of kilter with the US.

@Lordy - our net financial debt will either be negative or close to zero at the end of H1. The focus should be on opertional execution and winning new business - cash flow generation will follow, along with dividends being reinstated. THat should be focus of management, and I have no doubt that;s where they will focus.

Ahh, the losers are selling again. They've lost a shiiteload on THG and CPI recently, and now lining themselves up to lose a lot more. The best investment thesis in town is to bet against them directionally - that's a sureshot winning strategy as any !!

I'm accumulating at these levels - buy when there's fear on the stock street and that's what is happening now. I expect a good update in 3 weeks' time - to each their own though. I expect the management to step up and steer focus away from the hacking fracas to operational execution. A dividend guidance will set the cat among the piegeons and that could be the wild card. I'm a buyer and will continue to be at these levels !!

Right now pumper and dumper eviking is in a dumping phase trying to buy cheap and will switch to pumping soon enough when they've bought in cheaper. Best to ignore lightweights like them - particularly when they keep banging on about interest rates going up - when you're in a net cash scenario on the balance sheet, why would CPI need to worry about interest rates is a head-scratcher. Unless your mental faculties can't distinguish between gross and net financial debt

No, the Apollo bid was £3.40. Someone told me this.

I'm not sure why there's so much fretting over the details of who owns THG Hangar Ltd. A 5 minute look at the companies house site and their accounts, make it clear as daylight that this is owned by THG through another subsidiary THG Hangar Holdco Ltd - not MM. No speculation required!!!!

I'm not surprised that Apollo would've gone with a low-ball offer, but circa 95p seems low. But, I wasn't in the 170p bid camp - they're not that idiotic to go in with 170% premium on their bid. They're disciplained enough to walk away when their bid price doesn't meet their investment threshold criteria - a la Wood Group PLC.

Matty lad needs to keep delivering against revenues/EBITDA targets and keep beating them - that's when you get the SP back to above a quid on a sustainable basis. Therein lies the investment thesis for THG a few good updates/beats in a row and another 100% can be seen in good time.

Mikee76 is spot on, IMO. Credit facilities are typically for cash flow management - working capital/paydown on LT debt that comes due, and of course dividend cash payments with a pure focus on matching cash inflows to outflows. Capita has stated that dividends will be reinstated when it sees a path to sustainable cash flows, and my take is that with the current market angst over the hacking crisis and with a view ameliorate such concerns, I wouldn't be surprised to see CPI reinstate a small dividend with the H1 results annoucement, particularly if the business trends are trending well/OK.

A highly likely carcinogen nonetheless. What's its relevance for THG anyway? We wouldn't use that shiite in our nutrition products.

Good one from Serco. We are tracking for a good revenue push upwards, per the last update, and the whole set of shenanigans around the hack and fears over what that could mean for CPI's business is what has pushed the price lower here. That concern is misplaced when you look out over the next few months/quarters. We're still a deep-value play with no real net debt and hopefully giving out dividends from 2024 onwards. IMO, this is a great price level to accumulate.

I'm not bullish longer dated gilts - the best I'd go with is 5 year gilts, but I'll stick to 2-year gilts where I currently have holdings yielding just over 5%. I'm not convinced that the medium term direction of bond yields is lower. With de-globalisation being in fashion, I don't expect that we'd see yields drop sustainably to the levels we were at even before Covid.

In terms of UK stocks - THG and CPI are my plays. I like THG as an undervalued growth play and CPI as an undervalued valie play. I'm counting on THG to deliver outsized returns, and CPI to deliver good returns. And to a degree, they could be decent anti-recession plays too. Go on THG - you know you can give us outsized returns... ;-)

A pivot will just not happen in 2023, unless there's an exogenous event that the central bankers can't see currently. The majority of the fed reserve voting governors are set for a couple of 25 bps hilkes in July and September, and that shouldn't change. What happens after is an unknown.

However, the UK economy is running hotter from a inflation viewpoint, and is probably also in for at least two 25bps hikes, more likely three, and its an unknown how that'll hit the UK economy. From a THG viewpoint, I'd rather there is a washout slowdown (a recession) that materially lowers inflation, brings down rates and shifts consumers to spending on discretionary items (in the medium term) rather than on things like heightened mortgage repayments - this is what will give THG the 'growth' that we badly need to get our valuations higher!!