Member Info for gmed

Here's your big chance to show us all what a market pro you are. The question is where will KENV open when trading resumes. If you're afraid of making a complete fool of yourself with an exact number, you can just say higher, lower or the same (with 4.00 being the base price). I'll lead off with a prediction of higher. Oh what the hell, I'll stick my neck out with a number: 4.50.

With a background like that, Mr Fahy probably did not come cheap. You wouldn't spend money on high-priced talent like that unless you're convinced that he will be worth his keep, plus quite a bit of value-added. Perhaps the BoD can see the future more clearly than we do, but then again, they have all the numbers, reports, customer agreements, etc, etc, so we're at a slight disadvantage.

I never expected to learn much from the FY financials, but I'm quite happy with the operational update. It shows continued slow, steady progress from a third-rate company run by amateurs (and almost certainly headed for the receiver) into a first class miner ready to become a profitable player on the world stage. Forget details and exact numbers for a minute. Just take a step back and think of where we were in January last year. Now look at where we are today and tell me Larry hasn't done a sterling job! This year our patience and faith will pay off. The sudden and apparently unexpected change to IFRS puzzled me also. It's not entirely clear from the Namibian rules, but I don't think IFRS is required for Aftan. If it were, BDO would have known about it a long time ago and the delay in the accounts would never have happened. I'm with RH on this - the sudden change was probably demanded by a potential customer (perhaps customer no 2 as part of its due diligence) or a potential buyer of the company, most likely the first one. It just shows that they're getting serious - Kennedy would never have gone to the expense of converting the accounts unless they were virtually certain that the deal would go through.

I expect an operational update before mid-March. It should be an interesting one.

Perhaps not as bad as you paint it Tiger, but there is something definitely smelly here. The group auditors must have spotted some pretty major problems with Aftan's accounts. Sloppy accounting? I doubt it. Aftan being sold (to Kemet?) and buyer's accountants spotted the problem? Possibly. In any case, I await the operational update with great interest.

Hear, hear!

You don't suppose Walkabout is that mysterious second customer, do you?

I agree LJ seems to be the right man to run the operations. But this kind of decision would have been made by GC, who may know very little about mining, but is a very experienced pro at making lots of money from share price moves.

Don't expect anything on 9 Jan or, for that matter, for a while after that. If the accountants couldn't have the numbers ready for a publication deadline, they won't have them ready in a day or two after their office re-opens. And if I'm not mistaken, the two week Christmas break is standard in Namibia, so the mine's been closed as well. On the brighter side, what about the following theoretical possibility: the company has some very nice news for us, but to publish the accounts (with subsequent, post-close developments, don't forget) in the week before Christmas would be a total waste of the good news. The weeks before and after Christmas are when companies release all the bad stuff and hope people are away or not really paying attention. But you definitely do want them to notice the good news. So you invent a story that allows you to hold the good news for a bit and then release it when it will have maximum effect on the sp - in the next week or two, for example. The accounts get published before share trading resumes, so it can really sink in and then when trading finally resumes, bang! - we're off to the races. I admit this is probably wishful thinking, but I can easily imagine GC doing it. That's probably more likely than a reputable firm like BDO making a cock-up of it. But who knows? On AIM anything's possible!

I'm not at all unhappy with this RNS. True, there are no wonderful surprises,but it does confirm that the four promised shipment have been made, the plant continues to be upgraded and the evcaluation of the possible lithium resource is proceding. For this company, just keeping the promises made in previous RNSs is surprise enough! What continues to intrigue me is that second customer. I was always under the impression that the main customer would take every ounce of Tantalum Larry could produce and was pushing him to ramp up production as soon as possible. Sounds like the mine's entire projected output was accounted for for at least the next year or two. Now we hear of a second customer, which to me means one of two things: - Larry expects the production of high-quality Tantalum to exceed the main customer's needs, which probably would be a lot of Tantalum indeed, OR - The second customer isn't interested in Tantalum at all, but in Lithium or Lithium ore. If this is true, the fact that talks with the second customer continue and that an additional geologist has been taken on temporarily would indicate to me that Larry and his crew know more about the prospects for Lithium than they're letting on. These are the two explanations I can think of. Any other ideas? BTW, I've said in a previous post that GC/Kennedy release news if and when it suits them, not when it happens or when the shareholders would like to know what's going on with their company. GC and friends own a good chunk of this company themselves and, as I've also said previously, they're not in the habit of losing money. I think news will be released for maximum effect.

Don't get your hopes up too much. The accounts will show revenue in money, but probably won't mention tonnage shipped, so we won't be able to figure out the unit price. Don't forget, we're only the shareholders - we're not supposed to know too much. But hope springs eternal...

Forget the latte and go back to a nice pot of tea. That always did the trick with kenv's sp.

Agree fully, Cloud9 - good summary. But the further fund raising picture is a bit cloudy at the moment. I agree that for ongoing Tantalum production, we're probably in pretty good shape. But exploiting Lithium deposits (if we ever do) will need some pretty substantial capital injections. In view of the fact that Larry's main, probably only, interest is Tantalum, though, my best guess is that the company will sell off the Lithium rights, or enter a joint venture with some capital rich company or investor. Who knows? The financials, especially those for the period ending 31 Dec, should make for some very interesting reading.

...and leave them in the pot for ten minutes.

Ah, Richard, I remember the days when your stepping out for a quick cup of tea would send the sp up 1-2p. But, alas, your powers seem to be quite a bit weaker than they used to be. Perhaps regular practice would help?

Filtertips - If you're new to KENV the most important thing to know is that you're dealing with a schizophrenic company. At the beginning of this year, the CEO was replaced and you really have to view KENV as two companies: pre-Larry (the new CEO) and post-Larry. The pre-Larry company issued RNSs with information that was not true and made production forecasts that were never met. Turns out that it was virtually imposssible for them to have ever met these forecasts. I won't get into the question of whether Giles Clarke knowingly deceived the shareholders for his own gain or whether his real offense was knowing FA about mining and believing what a second-rate mining engineer told him. At any event, this engineer was replaced with an experienced Tant man from one of the largest users of Tantalum in the US. The RNSs since he joined show a pretty much worthless company being transformed into a world-class Tantalum producer and I have no reason not to believe them. The problem is that the company, even under the new CEO treats production and financial information like state secrets (actually, if they were state secrets Wikileaks would hold of them and we'd finally know something!). We'll know numbers when it suits the company and, especially, when it suits the financial interest of CG and his mates. My guess is that when the numbers come they will be good, but that's just my feeling. First hint of what's happening will be when a) the company issues an RNS with much of the information we're missing or b) it issues its financials. The 30 June numbers will be along in a couple of weeks but don't expect to learn too much from them. The real stuff will be in the 31 Dec accounts, but we won't have these for at least 7-8 months. So let's hope the company tells us far more in regular updates, both operational and financial. Another thing you ought to know is that GC and his mates have a bit of their own money sunk into the company and, as far as I know, they're not in the habit of losing money. Ever.

The possible second customer is interesting. I thought Kemet wanted every ounce Aftan could produce? A second customer will probably want a long-term contract, which reduces the chance of a Kemet grab for Kenv or Aftan, wouldn't you think?

I think we're going to have to wait for the financials to get any numbers at all. FY 2017 will be along fairly soon, but its the 1H 2018 that will tell the real story. Unfortunately a bit of a wait for those. Of course, the company can release some numbers any time it wants and will do so if it suits its own and GCs purposes.

The main thing I want to know is whther it's someone connected with the company. Anyway, I can definitely say it's not me - I'm already fully loaded. lol

Say what you like about how badly this company has been run, but if I'm not mistaken, someone is in there quietly accumulating shares. Whoever it is seems to be in no hurry, because he waits for the market to offer a good price. I'd love to know who it is!