Member Info for gmed

Yes, they were almost certainly buys. I've always said that we shouldn't expect any really exciting news from this company unless we've seen at least a couple of days of unexplained large block buying first. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but yesterday could be the first sign of this. Would be nice, wouldn't it?

Real, your moaning is surprisingly subdued today. Everything allright with you, I hope?

I think 10-15% will be more like it. Still not great, but we hope the furture cash flows make up for it.

The OGA approval is the only surprise here and it's a good one. Now the only question is what will we have to pay for funding the surprise?

RH - One of the operational updates stated that they had reached agreement with the trade union to work 16 hrs/day. It was a bit unclear whether or not they had actually begun to work two shifts or whether they just had the agreement to do so at some time in the future. But I also seem to remember that LJ indicated that he hoped to go to three shifts fairly soon as part of the production rampup. Took a quick look for the source, but couldn't find it in the totally disorganised mound of paper on my desk.

You don't suppose the company isn't even aware of the article?

Oops, sorry missthepenny. Loose lips sink ships!

The sp is meaningless because there is zero liquidity in this market. In the absence of any buying whatsoever, the smallest sell will send the price down because the mms have to take the risk of holding a long book in a falling market. My guess is that the mms are sitting on loss-making positions which they would like to get rid of, but at as good a price as possible. So as soon as any buying comes into the market, the sp will rise sharply as the mms try to make up as much of their loss as they can. If this is true, most of those waiting for 2p may find that they come within a whisker of that price but miss the boat as one of them jumps the gun and buys big at, say, 2.10, sending the price up and attracting even more buying. Don't say I didn't warn you! Lol.

Many, many years ago (before I discovered that in the City you could make money just by being a wee bit smarter than the next fellow) I was an English teacher and, as such, I should like to point out that the company has clearly stated that the three well pumps run 24 hrs/day. The exact words were that the pumps were "in continuous operation", which means non-stop or ongoing. If the pumps ran only 10.5 hrs/day and then shut off for the night, the company would have said "in continual operation", which means starting and stopping or recurring on a regular basis. But since Vonk is Dutch, he might not be aware of the difference. Lol.

Here's the link to a PwC publication which explains IFRS reporting for mining companies. https://www.pwc.com/id/en/.../assets/.../financial-reporting-in-the-mining-industry.pdf Pages 13 and 14 give some indication about when a mine is in commercial production, which seems to be a rather loose concept. (The publication is a few years old, but I expect the information is still valid.) And if you're ever having trouble falling asleep, read the rest of it. Out within ten pages or ten minutes, whichever comes first. Guaranteed.

As long as there's only one customer, we're not going to get any turnover or volume numbers. But at least we now know that the second customer we've been hearing about for so long is interested in tantalite, so maybe relief is on the way. But the second customer won't sign any contracts until they know that Aftan can deliver. And, as I understand it, Aftan has pre-sold its entire output well into the future to customer 1. So it all depends on the success of the ramp-up plan and it sounds to me like the ramp-up plan is dependent on increasing the water supply, which is why the water permit news is very welcome, regardless of the practical problems of getting the water to the mine.

Selling on rising prices - often a sign that MMs want shares. Filling a large buy seems more and more plausible.

Interesting that the MMs absorbed so many shares in a dead market at the bid, and not below, and then left the bid unchanged. Could be they need shares to fill a large buy. Who knows?

My guess is that the Ta is covering running expenses and they don't really need cash at the moment. If there is a placing, the money will probably be used to develop the Li potential or to make a new investment. Assuming the money is wisely spent (instead of just paying salaries and running expenses), we should benefit LT from the placing. My feeling is that this is a time to hold tight, have another pint and try not to think too much about your losses. Or as some are doing, buy at what will probably look like giveaway prices a year from now. Buy now and all the girls (or guys) will think you're a stock market genius and want to buy you a drink. Lol.

RH - I deal through HL too and have had the same trouble as you. If L2 shows X number of shares on offer at price Y, you sometimes won't get a price from HL for a quarter of that amount. One trick that's worked for me a few times is to put in your bid as a fill or kill order. The closer you bid to the L2 asking price, the better your chances of making a trade. You just have to pay attention to how much is on offer at the lowest price and not put in an order for more than that. Another way is to phone HL. They ring the MM and can do deals you can't do on the platform, especially for large blocks. It's sometimes all very frustrating, but I still think HL is one of the better ones.

AS 4unme points out, it could all be some end of tax year loss-taking. What bothers me is that there's no sign of any buying on leaked news. With the accounts coming within days, one would have expected at least a bit of that by now. Or has the company finally mended its ways?

You'll get financial information in the interims, but as long as there's only one customer, don't expect much about tonnages shipped. But LJ's interview tells us that they are running two shifts, soon to go to 24-hour operations, six days a week. I would imagine that's quite a bit of top-grade Tantalum concentrate leaving the mine.

It could very well turn out to be negative, but I'm a born optimist. Especially about shares I hold! Haha.

The accountants could be there for a number of reasons. If a major buyer is ready to enter a long-term purchase contract, the accountants could be there simply as part of their normal due diligence procedures. But they could also be there in relation to a possible takeover, sale of Aftan or a piece of it, or a joint venture, among other things. That the accountants are crawling around there is more likely a positive thing than a negative one, I'd say. What really has my attention, though, is the change in accounting standards. Why? And why in such a hurry? If LJ and GC thought it was worth delaying the accounts to make the change, there must be a good reason. And I'm going on the assumption that the reason is a positive one.

Never heard the old saying: "buy on the rumour, sell on the news"? By the time the news comes, anyone even loosely connected with company or its key people will have already bought and moved the price up. They'll be happy to sell to you, though.