Member Info for GLTader

I have offloaded 65% of my holdings and for the remaining holding have voted yes.

For those continuing the journey under Novacyt, I look forward to seeing YGEN potential being realised there (hopefully).

Otherwise, all the best everyone. It's been a big and expensive learning experience with this one!

Based on acquisition of YGEN at valuation of circa £23m (including Thermo debt payment), and knowing the YGEN business well, here's my view (illustrative numbers only):

YGEN standalone = £23m

YGEN with capital / funding = 2-3 x £23m

YGEN with capital / funding + Novacyt installed lab channels = 3-4 x £23m

So, the completion of the acquisition alone should give an uplift to Novacyt valuation, just because of the valuation uplift from the acquired YGEN business.

As for Novacyt business:

Novacyt stand alone = £28m (c 40p prior to acquisition news) (discounted NAV due to legal dispute)

Novacyt + YGEN installed lab base = 2x above?

Novacyt with legal dispute settled at NIL either way = at least 2-3x above

Novacyt with legal dispute settled in its favour = at least 3+ x above

Bottomline, Novacyt + YGEN business should therefore give us a rerating.

And finally, if proper management injected in, expect even more fireworks.

It's a win-win deal.

PS: YGEN is growing its core business 20%+ and therefore I expect EBITDA positive. And with the synergies, will reduce cash burn in Novacyt / combined business. Growth for each non-Covid business should also get a lift from cross-selling.

Hi Kaeren, yes I did. After research and thanks to comments / information here, offloaded 65% of my YGEN and entered Novacyt.......fingers crossed.

Legal case settlement?

Boy, have we taken a battering here at Vodafone but I think we have reasons to be optimistic.

Net Debt - this is now at a level comparable or better than industry, and with interest rates peaking and its long maturity dates, should no longer be a problem;

Germany - signs of stabilisation and recent piece by the CEO of the turnaround gives comfort. The Altice JV and improved reliability should reduce churn and bring net growth back;

Energy costs - this impacted EBITDA across the region. As we know, energy prices have subdued and its benefit should unwind in the quarters to come. Add to this, the recent PPA deals with Iberdola using solar PV gives both price and suppyl security, whilst supporting net zero ambitions;

Vodacom / E& - not talked about much, but the strategic partnership with E& should drive dominance in MENA and procurement strategies improve margins;

Price rises and growth in IOTs & Business - continued price rises on contracts to flow through into numbers on the consumer side, plus we are the no 1 in IOTs (mooted to be bigger than AI!) and focus on business which is growing;

Corporate M&A - further divestment of Vantage, UK - Three merger and Spain strategic review.

And finally, we are at an EV multiple and dividend yield that is VERY inviting. The re-balancing will happen and telcos will be loved again because guess what, we all need a connection these days!

Thank you Wilson63.

And full disclosure, I am from the YGEN shareholder camp. WAS a large shareholder until recent dilution. I think it is a done deal and I want to ride it under Novacyt. I think with the right investment and management, YGEN business can be worth north of £100m. So have started buying Novacyt. I am just holding back from fully committing due to legal dispute - so doing all the research I can.......and forming an opinion.

Thanks HarChris. I am sure there will be different viewpoints - hence the share price. I want to make my own judgement - the missing piece of information being on what basis DHSC is claiming against Ncyt........anyone?

I have moniman. Read all relevant RNSs, listened to podcasts and press articles. The one piece I cannot find is the basis of DHSC claim - and that is what I am asking fellow BBer's. No long essays needed - just one short answer - on what basis is DHSC claiming against Novacyt? It's only on the follow through contract, so I can only think of a few reasons!

I have tried to research into the legal dispute between DHSC v Novacyt - the key thing I believe holding the share price back for Novacyt, versus it's cash position at least.

Does anyone on this BB know what DHSC are claiming against? Performance? Product issues? Otherwise, Novacyt must have a strong contractual legal position!

Lots of conspiracy theories floating about. The situation certainly warrants it!

But, isn't Andrew Leeser appointed pursuant to BGF rights to appoint a non-exec director into the Board so long they hold 10%+? And given BGF have given their support to the deal, surely they believe this is the best route forward?

I hate to say this, and you all know I have lost significantly on this, unless a competing bid comes, then being absorbed into Novacyt with the capital they have, is the best way forward to realise YGEN potential.

And without an alternative, the dissenting shareholders have little negotiating position.

PS: It's not rocket science that YGEN valuation is so low due to its funding issue. With continued going concern uncertainty and lack of funds to grow, YGEN will not get a re-rating.

With YGEN absorbed into Novacyt, the business valuation should get an immediate re-rating. YGEN business will represent c. 75% of enlarged group. So, Novacyt will enjoy that re-rating. I expect when deal is completed, Novacyt will rise simply from an expectation of YGEN growth - let's watch if this transpires, all things being equal.

Cost synergies will be executed. Growth can be accelerated by cross selling across installed labs on both sides. Negotiations with larger players adopting Ranger can be done at better terms with capital behind it.

So, no, I don't like the 0.522p offer level. But I like the opportunity significantly improve on that by buying Novacyt at these levels.

LOL re hitman!

I guess we think slightly differently on this one. I have, sadly, had to rebase my expectation ie accepted my £m loss, and I reassess how best to recoup my existing YGEN holding value going forward. As below:

> YGEN (without funding) - may chug along and in time, if it survives, will receive a takeover at higher than 0.522p

> YGEN (with funding) - will more likely realise its potential and we have a chance of 5-10x today's value

Do I like 0.522p offer level? No. But better than it being delisted, another big diluted raise (if it can be pulled off) or worse, going bust.

Then I turn to Novacyt - because you are right, I am "forced" to invest in Novacyt if I want to ride YGEN. Market cap today circa £30m with a cash pile of £87m. Problems are cash burning business as they pivot away from Covid and legal dispute. On balance, it's an added risk v reward play I am prepared to take.

That's it really.

Slich, whilst I don't disagree with you - what's wrong with taking 0.522p and then riding it under Novacyt?

Hi Davand, I expected your comments (not necessarily just from you.....).

To be clear, I lost 7 figure sums on this! So, am I absolutely annoyed - yes! But, lamenting won't help recoup / rebuild what I have lost. I stand by my views / projections of the business then BUT I mistakenly thought we had proper financial stewards at the helm! I would have got the cost base to where we are today, 1 year earlier AND working capital management was an absolute shambles. Fundraising, if needed to grow, can be done on a healthier platform.

I am distinguishing what has happened with what can happen.......

I probably will get a lot of slating by writing this but here goes anyway:

Re takeover @ pittance price

What is the value of YGEN (with little funds) - probably higher than 0.522p but not much higher;

What is the value of YGEN (with lots of capital) - probably 3-4x sales.

On that basis, and assuming you like Novacyt fundamentals, then riding YGEN under Novacyt is even better. Novacyt's biggest issues are (a) legal dispute with DHSC and (b) cash burning business post Covid. But they do have a large IP portfolio and a cash pile.

Re Lyn Rees (here comes the slating)

For all his sins re value destruction here, I do think he is capable of building a business and sales. I wrote a piece re his settlement with Illumina, restructuring of Thermo loan, acquisition trail to broaden portfolio, Covid pivot etc and on that basis, he did deliver. But some bad decisions coupled with bad luck on timing / changes, did eventually compromise all that he achieved. The key problem for me was with financial stewardship and management!

With Novacyt, their CFO is tight and can solve the latter. If Lyn can do what he does best on the business development side, and kept in check on finances, then perhaps it is better the devil we know. After all, you would like to think he has learnt a lot in the last 3 years and will apply that learning!

Now that is interesting! (re Myers increase)

Masterblaster - you should read the documents already published. BGF has given their approval unless of course a competing bid comes at 10% higher.....

Anyone who thinks Novacyt will voluntary up their offer needs their head examining. Also, from where I am sitting, this is a done deal and you can already see the shares shuffling to enable that. Novacyt likely buying at below 0.522p to collect as much as they can pre Effective Date. Also, as I pointed out, a big chunk of YGEN are owned by II who bought in at 0.3p or averaged down to offer price. Yes, some will lose out BUT quite frankly, if Novacyt doesn't go through, YGEN future even more uncertain due to funding needs.

All said, I do NOT like how we got here and where we are, because we have a good business. However, I do see the benefit of the takeover, and hence will continue to ride it via Novacyt!

The only change will be if a competing offer comes in - unlikely but anything is possible!

Hi Kaeran,

You seem clued up re Novacyt and its history. I have jumped on board today simply to continue the ride of YGEN in a well-capitalised business. Think it is a win-win as YGEN business gives Novacyt a great platform to grow.

The one thing that bugs me is the legal dispute with DHSC. Have read all the public disclosures, but what is your take of likely verdict or indeed potential settlement routes (either party)?

Thanks in advance.

It will get voted through.

The recent circa 2.4b shares issued in Jan capital raising, 2.1b is with directors and institutions (BGF included). All these bought at 0.3p and now exiting at 0.522p or a good premium of over 70% in 6 months! Myers also averaged down and probably see this as the only way to realise YGEN value.

Then you have the proportion with original 727m holding including directors and BGF etc.

To get to 75%, it is circa 2.4b shares. Just the above pieces and a proportion of the original will get it there.

Then there will be retail investors, who like me, will vote for it.

I think, as bad as the price is, given current position - represents best chance to realise YGEN potential under another company with funds to accelerate growth + synergies in sales channels.

I will be accumulating Novacyt to continue the ride! GLA