Member Info for GLTader

Yep.....that's the news!

But baffling re share price action. Won't it add to demand? And it is up to the providers to decide what price they may wish to sell to Amazon at?

Also, Amazon can just gobble up Vodafone for Europe and Africa!

Or FLAT versus UK Close!

The other thing people tend to forget / ignore is the user base of Vodafone - from last records, circa 600m subscribers across all its territories and channel offering. On average therefore, Vodafone is earning, based on €45b revenue, circa €75 ARPU per annum. Price inflation will help, but in this world of data, and they are just beginning to across IOT, there is huge value in this user base alone. Even if Germany users are falling, there is net growth across its base.

To put it into perspective, Netflix has 233m subscribers. They also need to invest heavily in content but now trying to better monetise their asset ie user by advertising and removing free sharing. Netflix recorded $32b revenue last year with net profit of $4.5b. They have circa $14b of debt. Their market cap is a whopping $175b!

So, make your own assessment! Think who can and will benefit from 600m user base across UK, Europe and Sub-Saharan.

This has all the signs of a walk down in price, before a full takeover - increasing the premium so it is approved by shareholders - 100p offer will be 31% premium and an opportunistic deal!

Doesn't make sense. We are now circa €24b market cap, plus €33b debt = €57b EV. A very simple sum of parts will get you easily to €80b, which means 2x current market cap ie circa 140p.

EBITDA is €13.3b ie EV is 4x EBITDA. Yes, FCF impacted near term BUT a combination of cost cutting, energy cost subsiding, corporate M&A and debt reduction from remaining Vantage disposal more than supports a higher EV. Dividend IS sustainable.

Something is up with the SP action and it isn't based on fundamentals!

I have been biding my time to further add onto my YGEN position, albeit nibbling for my ISA 2023/24 allocation. Reason was to wait for more concrete news & progress updates. The recent FY trading update was encouraging with all core businesses in growth and their comment re not progressing with strategic investment to avoid dilutive impact, if taken at face value, is a positive in my view.

There has been limited other RNSs - and that's frustrating. But I woke up today thinking it could be due to the restructuring that was and is still happening. Company could be restricted in what they can / should say in this period.

We are at £7m market cap and even a low ball offer at $50m, equivalent to 1.25p, represents a big upside from here. Petty cash to some of the larger diagnostics players, some of whom are already using our tech / offering, so perhaps a matter of time after successful testing. I am convinced a takeover is the exit route for management and shareholders, question is what price. I would like to think (and hope) it is north of 2p.

Perhaps it is time to add.

£19m turnover with 55% margin, ie £10.5m GP.

Core revenue growing at 20%+

Someone with similar & bigger distribution channels can just buy this over for a cheeky £32m ie 1p, and payback within 3 years without all the overheads!

Should be 8-10x higher, agreed!

Hi Davand, no - not interested in the legal action as I don't think it will get anywhere, and will just become another distraction for the company, when we need it to deliver!

I think it is possible, although would need 75% vote I imagine.

They might also delist and re-list in US - especially if US sales starts to take off.

I just wish management can re-create the excitement we all had with YGEN and back it up with new contracts and financials - what happened to making RNSs on new business wins?

Hi Davand, I am still here.

Just silenced by the company's silence and our share price performance.

A £19m turnover business with 55% gross margin, and a portfolio of core products & services that is gaining traction, including the proprietary Ranger Technology. Yet, valued at under £8m.

I sincerely hope management are working 24/7 to turn this around and announce positive news ASAP.

I maintain that based on run rate, growth of 20-30% can be achieved in FY2023/24, which means we will be +ve EBITDA. With proper working capital management, which I hope the interim CFO will bring, then no need for significant further cash injection other than Taiwan divestment.

The only comfort, if there is any to be drawn, is that BGF and all the directors are fully invested themselves.

Come on YGEN - do and say something!

I have gone through the update and recent documents issued by YGEN again. Parking aside the fiasco that was on capital management, the fundamental story hasn't changed and in my view, only grown stronger.

I am most encouraged by Ranger Technology which is the key differentiation in NIPT testing, and of course then applicable across all blood DNA tests. The SAM is massive and in the billions.

BUT we all know the speed upon which large pharmas and labs move, partly due to the structural set up but also the compliance / regulatory process. We are in pretty much in VALIDATION phase and £2.2m tells me it is moving into the ADOPTION phase. Get a few large players adopting it, then it will be growth and recurring revenue.

The recent management changes / injections should hopefully realise the company's potential!

Yes, agree.
From FY22, international revenues were £5.6m, so a 70% growth will mean £9.5m in FY23. If this growth rate continues, and no reason why not with Ranger and NIPT labs adoptions, then international will be £16.2m in FY24.
Even on minimal 10% UK and Europe growth, they will be circa £3m and £6m, which brings total to circa £25m.
Cost reductions mean run rate of circa £11.5m costs, and with a margin of 55%, we should be EBITDA and cash flow positive in FY24. I am working on the basis we now have proper financial management!
Assuming we take their report at face value, the fact that we are not entertaining further dilutive impact that could come from the strategic investment is a good sign. This means we are fine cash wise and not desperate!
Re Taiwain, intriguing. If we offload that for £1-2m, why wouldn't someone just buy the lot which at current market cap is £8.5m! Puts into perspective our valuation.
I reckon we could be a takeover target before long and sadly will be opportunistically at 1-2p. Hope that will underpin our value and trigger competing bids.
Good luck all.

SpreadEx is a spread betting firm. The increase / decrease simply reflects retail investor holding. Don't think people should read too much into it.

Trading update this week is much more important.

https://www.petercharles.co.uk/arrival

Yep - announcement by FED to backstop all depositors both for SVB and NY Signature bank. That's if YGEN is impacted at all.

The key relationship with SVB is one of loan provider - so YGEN will be one of SVB's assets (loan book) to be sold off. Unless covenants breached, unlikely with the recent statements / financing, then it will just continue with SVB or another.

I wouldn't however be surprised if YGEN USA and Canada have business accounts held under SVB given that is where the loan facility originated from and for, but I can't imagine it to hold much money. Perhaps issues with processing payroll and payments etc like many companies.

The main bank for YGEN is Royal Bank of Scotland per their statutory accounts, where I would like to think the majority of funds are held.

Yourgene Nx NIPT Workflow install for Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH), the largest medical center in Taiwan!

Hi Bakky,
I think it's quite fascinating what they RNS or not!
Having said that, I do think this represents almost a "reset" / "new beginning". Expecting newsflow to start.
I am pleased to see Ambry oncology test live - Ambry a leader in this space and therefore, there will be demand.
And for the last time, as I called it a "reset", shafted by the placing in December. Remain optimistic with BUSINESS potential.
All the best.

Well, if NIPT can grow £3m, Genomic Services £1.5m, Ranger £1.5m.......cost cut by £2m. We could see a big swing for FY23/24. Still feel shafted by the low placing but trust BGF are no fools!
This should be a £100m market cap business.......

Surely news due any time now?

Well, in case missed, Julian Baines appointed as interim CEO.
Julian Baines, Chairman of IIG and Robert Naylor, CEO of IIG, have holdings of 5,000,000 ordinary shares and 33,497,789 ordinary shares in Yourgene respectively.
Julian also ex-CEO of BBI.
Given need to pivot away from non-Covid, and green shoots seen presumably via NIPT, wouldn't be surprised it is EKF making a play with YGEN.
Note they also changed adviser to Singer recently!
The plot thickens.