RE: DYPD testing effect on long term income7 Nov 2023 12:59
Hi Frawdo,
All good questions. Based on what I know:
1. Yes, 2m new cancer patient per annum. So, when I did a quick estimate of future potential, I said 10% which I believe can be achieved.
2 & 3. Good research. I used $100 per test based on selling price of our test to hospitals / clinics etc. They will charge more of course for their own overheads and profits. So, $450 per test seems right, cheap I would say given what it can prevent. They will all be reimbursable by govt / insurance where applicable.
4. DYPD already a $1m+ product within YGEN prior to Novacyt acquisition. The EU certification, first of its kind, will simply (a) accelerate the adoption and growth, (b) place Novacyt DYPD test as the defacto and (c) likely increase coverage.
I should add that US has been slower than Europe in adopting this BUT has already begun doing so. Yourgene has submissions into regulatory framework there already. I think that is coming imminently too. Sales already started but with approval, you can imagine its growth.
Re competition, I wouldn't worry. There is room for others and it will help adoption. YGEN / Novacyt test being the leader is the key and if we can get 10% (or more) of the marketplace, that's a huge ARR.
Finally, I just wanted to add that Lyn Rees, whatever people may think, does put his money where his mouth is. So, I am 99% confident there will be directors' buys. Watch out for that. But given Novacyt relatively smaller share capital, it may be an order being executed.......