Member Info for GLTader

Takeover talks, especially if hostile, does not start with the target.

It starts at the boardroom of the acquirer, and their funding partners.

Hence the rumours.....and smoke with the fire.......

Exactly.

The same old story. Investors panic and combined with stop losses, exacerbate the SP action down.

JD Sports has not issued any news that would warrant this fall. So, it's all sentiments.

The trading update on Thursday will have to be very bad to validate this fall - any reiteration of the outlook will get us quickly back to 90p+.

£1b profits and cash the same, with no net debt. This is so undervalued.

I believe there was a little virtual competition going on this.........I missed it.......my expectations:

Xmas 2025 - Above £13

Xmas 2026 - Above £18

Good luck all.

Yes, thank you Yeslam - your projections were pretty spot on too. In fact, think WizzAir outperformed it in a few metrics :-))

It was as good as it could get, in my view, based on my own analysis and my previous post comparing QoQ and YoY........

I continue to expect improvements in full year and into the years to come.

WizzAir should be closer to £20 than £10, so I think you know my target. :-)

And someone mentioned re WizzAir's high capital leverage, even at £18, whilst an 80% increase from lows, will only be 1.8b market cap or 800m increase in total EV. So, not hard to get there.....

I also like that WizzAir will be paying down debt with cash balance.....with plenty of headroom left.

Excellent H1 results, ahead of expectations.

H2 guide misrepresented by headlines IMO. Capacity is expected +10%, with seat capacity +teens. Yes, RASK down single digits (not to be confused with topline revenue), this is countered by load factor up single digits. With capacity up 10%, revenue will be up YoY. Costs flat.

So, I expect FY revenue, EBITDA and profits to be up YoY in the mid single digits.

I am most interested in Cobas Asset Management taking a significant 5% stake. They are renowned for identifying value.

Between the stake building and successful deferral / mix change of the Airbus order, wondering if it is being primed for a takeover.

Watch this space.

Yah, since Rose took charge, looks like WPP (net) winning again.......Reckitts won beating Publicis and Dentsu.

Robbren58, from WizzAir Q1 FY26 presentation:

Q126’s leverage ratio of 4.1x still reflects the high level of fleet groundings. Recent Fitch downgrade to BB ‘Outlook stable’ reflected the impact of these groundings but note this as temporary (see note)

Note: Fitch recognises that the grounding headwind will pass, stating ‘Wizz is implementing strategic actions to optimise operations and improve profitability. Along with the gradual unwinding of the airline's P&W parked fleet, this should support an improvement in the credit profile.

So many differing views on this Board, and some learned folks too.

For me, the decision-making process on investing in WizzAir is simple:

1. Do I like the space they are operating in?: Yes, subject to geopolitical events, international travel will always happen and grow;

2. Is the company in a leading position where they operate?: Yes, #1 in CEE and a growing base;

3. Is business growing, contracting, flat?: Growing again YoY and QoQ - see traffic numbers;

4. Is company generating EBITDA / FCF? Yes, even if curtailed due to......

5. Why is company share price in trouble - is it management fault/issue?: Specific issue and not mgmt fault, in fact, handling it well;

6. Can the issue be resolved or is it structural?: Can be resolved, even if timing delayed.

On above basis, I started accumulating around 1100p and will continue to add. Did I / Will I catch the bottom? Can't time it nor am I looking at £1-2 difference, I am targeting >£18.....

Good luck all.

Now 3% up versus UK close level.......

Typo on:

That's one side of the equation. There are many ways to value a company but EBITDA multiple is a good example to use. In this case, the EBITDA and the multiple matters. WizzAir EBITDA is say, €1.2b. So, today it is on a multiple of just under 5. IE 1.2 x 5 = 6.0b........

I can answer that Yeslam.

Basically, a company's value, called Enterprise Value (EV) = Equity + Net Debt. Think of this as different owners of the business. So, for instance in WizzAir's case, the current EV = €1b + €4.7b = €5.7b. The ratio of debt:equity is high, i.e. the company is funded more by debt than equity. High leverage. A very good profile for a growing / scaling company, with good FCF, because debt is cheaper in the main. But of course, more risky as debt can be called upon unlike equity.

That's one side of the equation. There are many ways to value a company but EBITDA multiple is a good example to use. In this case, the EBITDA and the multiple matters. WizzAir EBITDA is say, €1.2b. So, today it is on a multiple of just under 4. IE 1.2 x 4 = 4.8b........

Now if WizzAir successfully grows / improves. Two things change. The EBITDA will get back to its heydays say €2b. The multiple will improve because currently it is being penalised with a risk discount. So, say multiple moves to 7 (I haven't checked our peers), valuation becomes, 2 x 7 = €14b EV.

But the MOST important part of this, is that, debt level does not change. So, the upside in EV will translate into the equity value. And in terms of share price movement, it will be a BIG delta from €1b to €9.3b (14b - 4.7b) or 9x today's share price!!! Now imagine if WizzAir is fully equity ie no debt, the growth will be from €5.7b to €14b or under 2.5x. That's what they mean by highly geared in terms of capital......

That is why WizzAir moves a lot - and any signs of improvement it will swing up big time. Last year it went to £18 from this level in a few months?

Thanks Yeslam.

The figures I shared are Q1 FY24/25, H1 FY24/25 and Q1 FY25/26.

And I am trying to better understand expectations for Q2 FY25/26 given all YoY comparable have been improved. So, why shouldn't we expect Q2 FY25/26 to mirror (or better) Q2 FY24/25 or H1 FY24/25?

Clearly lots of seasoned WizzAir holders here and clever people. Need to be educated again please.

From what I can see, Q1 FY24/25 they delivered:

Revenue €1.25b

Ebitda €274m

OP €44.6m

NP €1.2m

Passengers 15.3m

Then taking H1 FY24/25 they delivered:

Revenue €3.05b (Q2: €1.8b)

Ebitda €878m (Q2: €604m)

OP €522.9m (Q2: €478.3)

NP €400.7m (Q2: €399.5)

Passengers 33.0m (Q2: 17.7m)

In Q1 FY25/26, they delivered:

Revenue €1.43b

Ebitda €300m

OP €27.5m

NP €27.5m

Passengers 17.0m

From my maths, over Q2 FY25/26, WizzAir carried 19.5m passengers i.e. much higher sequentially (14.7%) and YoY (10%) - this is despite the heightened tensions in ME during this quarter.

Simply going by H1 FY24/25, and the numbers going for H1 FY25/26, why are people expecting lower numbers?? Were there one-offs in 24/25?

Q2 FY24/25 performance was good, but why should we not expect the same in Q2 FY25/26?

Thanks.

Sad Affair. Why??

Johnbri4, I read your post with interest. I like objectivity and I do not have technical / engineering knowledge you do.

HOWEVER, I am very CONFUSED with all the doom & gloom talk.

This is a P&W issue and whatever the compensation level is, it is a contribution to the impact it has had on WizzAir business.

Yes, there are grounded airplanes and it is / will take longer to get back in the air.

BUT I only need to look at Q1 FY25/26 results to confidently say WizzAir is here to stay. They reported improved ASK, load factor, passengers carried, revenue, EBITDA and a net profit. They have cash of just under €2b, with a reducing net debt at €4.7b. Net debt to EBITDA ratio probably around 3.5.

So, can someone educate me why there is talk of WizzAir going bust????

Far from it, it is a profitable company and generating cash flow, DESPITE the P&W challenges.

It just reported its best summer and October traffic that judging from today's SP performance, one would think was bad. It's another stellar performance with almost every metric up.

The turnaround story has begun and continuing. Yes, slower than expected, NOT due to their management - in fact, they are doing great with the hands they were dealt.

This will get swallowed up if prices don't improve........there are some astute players probably manufacturing (or loving) the fall and swiping in with a cheap 40% premium (against the lower base) convincing SH to accept!

This is a STRONG buy for me.

You should ask Co Pilot what the Sums of Part Value is!

Kantar is worth $1.6 - $2.4b.

WPP Media (if spun off) could be worth > $8b

Creative agencies, PR, Design, Production could be worth > $6b

(I adjusted numbers down based on performance so far)

So.......

WPP has its issue, but at the current share price / market cap, vultures will be circling.

Short positions almost 7% now. Any sniff of a takeover will give you the biggest squeeze ever.

Circa £10b net revenue, and at 13% margin, justifies a higher share price. The sum of parts further validates upside in share price.

A buyer, with similar footprint, can probably take out significant overheads improving margins and if complementary to service offering, get top 20 clients growing again, with new business wins to come (some signs of it since Rose joined), it's a bargain!

Way overdone!

Nvidia takes $1 billion stake in Nokia, sending the 5G equipment maker's shares up 18%

Up 10% in US on Verizon deal.

Vodafone own 5% or something right?

Good news and hopefully more to come as Cindy Rose turns WPP around.

Also very encouraging to see Mondrian ADDING, along with Schroders the other day.