Member Info for GLTader

I am still here Twix, and still holding my just under 3%, so yes, nursing a huge (paper) loss!

I have written quite a bit recently - and I refer you to my post "Way Overdone" parts 1 and 2 for my take of matters and why I sincerely do have faith in Lyn, despite the abysmal share price.

I am definitely in the camp that part of management's responsibility is share price performance - it effectively is the market's "vote" of their and company performance. BUT, I also sympathise with Lyn that it is ultimately not in his control - and given our share price action this year, I tend to agree. I wrote recently about the "disconnect" and this is definitely a case in point. There is literally nothing to explain the fall to below 2p other than a seller, for whatever reason, needing out or MM feeding on sentiments and trying to instigate volume. Look at today's action - less than 500k shares traded ie less than £10k and more than half buys, and we fell.

YGEN is now worth £15m - even in distress, it should be worth more. And I don't think we are or should not be! Revenue generating, and will be EBITDA positive next year, growing again and with a disruptive tech. Goodness, if I had £15m, I would take it over. I am trying to release funds to double up......the share price is simply too disconnected now!

I think Lyn & co have done well pre, during and now post Covid. People talk about having some faith, this is the time.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/636a5d5473b22f035bb813c3/yourgene-health/?popup=true

Who said being a disruptor is quick and easy!? But it will certainly pay off........ 3 x megalabs and going......

Yes Twix, it is possible Taiwan may be sold. And Lyn said in 27 July IMC that strategic review to be concluded end of this calendar year. With activities improving, and investments made, perhaps we will get decent money for that.
Listening back to the Q&As, Lyn was quite categoric as late at 27 July that no further cash needed!

I don't know Twix.
It's clear there has been a seller - this could be due to forced liquidation or portfolio strategy realignment.
But that too will clear.....

Looks like there was a new set of projections out post trading update, with EBITDA 22/23 of -£1.4m. This is very much in line with my thinking and on that basis, we will end up with cash post debt repayment of £5m before working capital / investments consideration as at end March 2023. As I said, there was significant working capital to unwind as at March 2022. And if that is unwound, can counter investments, if any.

Then the company is EBITDA positive going into FY23/24 and forward. So, I continue to believe there is NO fund raising exercise, as pretty much said by YGEN in their latest trading update. I also think YGEN can negotiate deals with partners to augment cash position - Lyn has done that before and will I am sure consider that again.

It is very easy, and understandable, to link the share price and company performance. But, they are not always linked - I have seen many instances of such broken links, and it is identifying where such link is broken (too high / low), and where it is unjustifiable, that brings the best opportunities. In YGEN's case, it is definitely the case. And because our SP has been decimated, we make up various theories and conclusions, including slating Lyn and management.

I have done a lot of research, even more so in recent times, and nothing I have found suggest anything other than continued progress with YGEN. A simple google into NIPT market and little YGEN appears in the list of key players. The Ravgen case, with damages awarded subject to appeal, has also ignited Ranger opportunities and it also explains the confidential nature of its implementation to date. Oncology is also a big space we are entering into.

It is easy to forget that Lynn, appointed in July 2018, concluded (a) Illumina settlement in September 2018 and (b) capital & loan restructure with Thermofisher in February 2019 ie within 9 months of his joining. We then expanded and enhanced our portfolio of products & services and channels through acquisitions of Elucigene, AGX and Coastal Genomics. We had Covid over the last 2 years which one should also not forget delivered record revenues and profits.

The company's market cap today is £16m! How can that be right??! YGEN is expected to record £21m+ revenue and GP of circa £12m. And we are growing our core again at 20% growth rate, with Ranger experiencing even higher growth rates (and only just beginning). The Company also issued its trading update on 3 November 2022 - unless I am misreading it totally, it pretty much said they will exercise controls over discretionary investments and working capital, to manage the group's financial position IE no placing! Further, it said they will make the necessary decisions as commercial progress in the 2nd half becomes clearer IE even that may not be necessary yet.......and sounds like some there are commercial deals in play. I wouldn't be surprised with a deal involving an injection of capital for growth by one of our partners, perhaps with warrants and some form of exclusivity / royalties model.

Lyn has brought us the Illumina settlement, Thermofisher capital restructuring and record FY21/22 during Covid. I have FULL confidence Lyn will deliver us more deals & performance that one day, we will look back at 2.3p and say why didn't we add more.

I do hope though Lyn, if you are reading this, give us some pre-Xmas cheer - your patient shareholders deserve it!!

I just read through some of the research reports and press on Ranger Tech - it is very impressive.
We definitely have an amazing tech that will not just save costs in Streck v EDTA tubes but also laboratory re-run costs. The tech can be extended outside of NIPT into various segments too, again proven.
Our NIPT solution with Ranger has been running for years, successfully.

Let's dream......
Labcorp, already using Ranger on oncology, will put a cheeky bid in at 8p. That equates to less than a quarter of their settlement cost of $270m with Ravgen! Using Ranger alone will save and payback within a few years. And they can probably replace their entire NIPT offering with YGEN's.
Illumina, not to be left behind, makes a counter bid at 10p;
Roche comes into the game and goes for 12p;
Labcorp comes back with 15p;
But finally Thermofisher / Life Sciences swoops in, exercising their warrants and buys us for 17p.

There you do. My thoughts. :-)

From the July FY results presentation, they confirmed it is Labcorp + 2 others, as opposed to 2 in CMD.
They RNS'd the first one in March 2021 and second in June 2021. They told us they were negotiating a third during CMD.
So, I can only surmise, one of March or June is Labcorp + ANO.
Then they signed another without being able to RNS due likely to client confidentiality.
As I previously said, to now declare a run rate > $2m per annum is pretty impressive.......and will likely grow fast with wider adoption and across more segments with existing and new clients. Don't forget as well, implementation would have taken longer last year due to Covid. And new one just in.

One thing for sure. Their behaviour and RNSs (nature and volume) do not look like a company looking to do a placing. And the trading update pretty much said that.
If it was, the 15 new labs would have been RNS'd separately, the new megalab and various other developments hidden within presentations.
So, I imagine the Board must have a plan or know of THE plan!

Errrrr......is that it? I could have told TW that!
From my projections below, I expect us to be net cash of c. £0.5m end 31 March 2023.
With revenue H2 weighted and costs H1 weighted, not surprised really!
Nothing wrong with that.......

The tech validation process takes time in our business / category.
Eyes will be on us given various university research results, plus Labcorp, Ambry and 2 other megalabs. I wouldn't be surprised if takeover is being discussed already at buyco level (business case) and then swoop.
Re finances, we had £8.4m as at 31 March 2022.
We already know we are on track to deliver FY revenue expectations, with based on the comment of "£9.6m being over 40% of FY revenue" indicate anywhere between £21.3n - £22.3m I reckon. @ GP% of say 56%, we have circa £12 - £12.5m GP. The savings of £5m is approximately 1/3 of total OPEX, so say OPEX in FY2023 is £13m (ie not full year savings) + one off restructuring of £0.5m, we are then -£1m EBITDA.
Given the comments from company, they will manage WC and discretionary investment IF needed. So, assuming they counter each other, the loan repayment of £1.7m + interest = £2m.
This leaves year end cash balance of £5.4m.......and for prudence, say £4m!
We then expect to turn EBITDA +ve in FY2024 and that should fund loan repayment and investment (if needed).
If we generate 30% growth in FY2024, that will deliver £5m EBITDA assuming same margins, full year savings and no more one-offs. So, I don't see why we need more cash!
And if we are growing Ranger + NIPT significantly in US, we can get financing for growth another way.
As I previously said, Ambry revenues should be in excess of $5m alone!

Madness really, on low volumes and from what I observe over the last days / weeks, mostly buys!

Our market cap today of £16.4m is less than the acquisition prices of Coastal, Elucigene and ADX added together, let alone our NIPT business.....go figure!

Yes, based on improved working capital management and restricted investment activities.
And if needed for growth plans, then alternative funding mechanisms versus placing due to low SP! (eg below)

Yep Davand.
I remember Thermo bankrolling us when we were under litigation with Illumina. That was obviously strategic.
I wouldn't be surprised, if Ambry starts to get a feel of both reproductive health portfolio traction their side, and YGS oncology services our side, they will be prepared to bankroll us too, IF needed.
We know Lyn has done such deals......

Yourgene is positioning itself as THE fetal fraction enrichment company leading to superior NIPT workflow & testing solution, which can be expanded into oncology, infectious disease, gene synthesis and RNA.

Due to Covid, the growth expansion plan was subdued / curtailed, and only now reignited at force.

We have signed up 3 megalabs in 2021/22: Labcorp + 2 other. From what I can make out, Labcorp focused on oncology, one of them in reproductive health and the other on non-Covid infectious disease. ALL of them have the opportunity to expand across segments as per the RNSs. These megalabs have stringent embedded processes. Validation takes time but I am very confident, once validated, our tech will be applied across all their tests. That alone will be huge. We are at $2m per annum run rate already.

2 have remained anonymous due to competitive advantage they feel they want to preserve. This buys them at least 12-18 months headstart. Let's be clear, if I didn't have plan to adopt it across my entire workflow and gain an advantage, I wouldn't worry about staying anonymous.

I said Ambry contract alone is worth our market cap. Add EKF and the 50+ labs around the world. Plus YGS.

Our SP confounds belief. I have said before and will say again, if this continues, we will be taken over. Just hope it will be at least 10p.

These positions all signal growth in operations. So, supports the back to growth in core business we have been told. I really think the Ambry contract and extended partnership alone is worth our market cap!
Waiting for contract news (with upfront licensing fees ideally) and/or statement re possible offer.

Yet again this BB outdoes itself with conspiracy theories!
Yes - I sat next to our largest shareholder and DIRECTOR of the company. He confirmed he has not sold any to my question re rumours of him doing so. In fact, said not until above 25p! (it was c 10p then I think)
Many people, for personal / tax reasons shift holding to a company - that does not negate the need for disclosure of shareholding change. Whatmore for a director!!
Please remember, Bill Chang added 510,000 @ 17.5p back in Sept 2020, to his already big holding.
And Lyn, Barry, Hayden, John Brown, BGF etc all added at 17.5p - 18p back then!
Amati joined us in that round and remains.
There probably is a seller but until notification given, it is not any of our major shareholders.
Perhaps ex-employees, perhaps those earn out shares, perhaps, perhaps, perhaps.......

I still have, together with people I know, 3%+ and holding / adding.
All I know is that for a business and where we are, we are worth more than £19m even in a distress sale!

Goodness, we do make things up on this BB!

Re company silence: I think the company will say they have been very vocal - trading update Jan, CMD April, FY update April, Final results July, AGM Sept and most recently interims update last week. I am not saying they can't be better with their RNSs, but they have updated us a lot this year on developments - which has all been positive really!

Re state of play: We know core is BACK TO GROWTH. We know Ranger has picked up 3 x megalabs, including Labcorp. We know NIPT labs installations had >40% growth this year (50+ now). We now EKF installed and ready for samples. We know Ambry is starting marketing. And we know we will take Ambry's world credible oncology into our YGS offering. We also know, in not so many words, there will be no placing. They will manage discretionary costs.

Re SourceBio: Very different structure. 70% owned by three parties!

Re SP: NO idea why we are here and we can all have our theories. Bottomline, do you think we are worth £19m or more? If more, then take the opportunity to snap up more shares.

This BB sometimes exacerbate matters by coming up with conspiracy theories. Until proven otherwise, we are a company back to growth, after Covid derailed plans albeit allowed us to generate funds for investment. Do read my "Overdone" post. It's all I got to say.

Bottomline - we are not a £19m market cap business!! 3 or 4 times that wouldn't be an overstatement.

Looks like someone accumulating in 250k lots?