Member Info for GLTader

Did we miss the fact that Labcorp is presenting at Labroots on our product? Perhaps an indirect message?! Labcorp is a S&P500 company and operates one of the largest clinical laboratory networks in the world. Thoughts?

I think the management has been badly bitten (and so have we) by the miss in last financial year, against an upgraded forecast. The miss has dented credibility and as AR said in AGM meeting, will take time to "heal".

Mind you, I think they have gone quite to the other extreme, with a lack of commitment to upsides and not being as aggressive with positive story / developments. It does mean they have now, for two quarters superseded expectations, particularly on the topline.

Therefore, I expect more beats in the quarters to come, and a return to believe and hopefully our SP! I will reassess my position at the end of this financial year.

All the best.

Perhaps a leak of a deal or trading performance?
And quite frankly, we were way oversold.
Guess we will know more in the days to come but hopefully the start towards 120p.
Good luck all.

Vodafone share price action is truly baffling. Vantage which listed at circa €24 is now just under €30 and stable, with a market cap of €14.2b. Vodafone still owns in excess of 80%. That alone is worth €11.5b. There has been no suggestion of dividend cut which CEO said is RESOLUTE, either from any recent brokers' reports or press, and nothing in what the company has been reporting suggest a miss to expectations for FY21/22. Therefore, I can only conclude it is "manipulation" due to convertible loans and share buybacks.With brokers target prices ranging from 155p up to 230p, this must be one of the most disconnected share price. They can't be all wrong and even the lowest represents > 40% upside from here.

Hoping for a solid trading update next week, reaffirming strong H1 and fingers crossed, an uplift to FY forecast + profitability.
Given the depressing increase in number of cases, suspect testing here to stay and would love to hear more re US contracts with one launching this quarter.
£30m+ revenue FY21/22 should give us the uplift in SP I imagine!
Good luck all.

Danielh, I am afraid that is one of the silliest post I have read, even if I think I get what you are trying to say. Debt is simply another funding option for a company, much like equity is. That is why when one considers the value of the company, its Enterprise Value (EV), they look at equity + net debt. Effectively, debt holders are part owners of the business without voting rights etc. There are many cleverer people who works out the cost of finance via equity or debt, and the trick is to have the right balance. EBITDA provides one way of valuing the EV of a company, although can be complicated with growth expectations, capex to sustain it, market position, category etc. Free cash flow (FCF) is a very good measure of valuation of equity in my view as it takes into account the servicing of the debt, capex, investments etc. All things being equal, the company can carry on refinancing its debt at same level and the FCF will increase equity value. Vodafone has EBITDA of circa €15bn and FCF of €5bn. It's not surprising target prices by brokers are at the higher end of £1 than where we are at the lower end! The share price performance is BAFFLING! But I was equally baffled with BP when it fell to low £2 despite oil price recovery, look where it is today. The markets will wake up to it in due course.......in the meantime, enjoy the resolute dividends!

What makes us think YGEN won't be helping govt provide these free tests?

My view is that it is not the institutions don't support any fund raise, but rather that it shouldn't be done where they get diluted without a choice of not being diluted ie they get choice to invest too. The question was the limit. To be honest, I also want my pre-emption rights at each raise because I would have happily invested more at 10p etc in previous discounted rounds. Not the 17p one which was at market price.

Just wanted to express that the resolution that got removed is the disapplication of pre-emption rights up to a certain limit. This right basically protects existing investors from being diluted without the choice of them investing pro-rata to existing holding. To me, this is not a refusal to the company to raise more money for its needs. That gets voted for at the time.
In any case, I believe Lynn and Barry both said no more equity raise in the foreseeable future in August IMC. Of course, never say never, but I don't think we need to with our trading to date! It's expansion time for what we have......
Just thought I would clarify my understanding.

Overall, thought Lynn (and team) continue to be upbeat about current trading and outlook for the business. I also thought Adam's response to why SP not reflecting company's performance quite interesting. We missed our upgraded target in FY21 and market may take 12 months to re-evaluate ie effectively to believe again. The results to date certainly helps, and I take it that we can expect a re-rate in the next 6 months, maybe earlier if we have a solid trading update. It is clear we have exceeded £15m and I anticipate broker upgrades to follow in October. We have strong NIPT + Lightbench businesses in US to come, plus core returning to normal, with Covid a big add.

I am more convinced now of my previous write up on this (extracted from before):

Assuming testing continues at this rate, say 100,000 pm, a prudent estimation is this equates to £1.5m pm or £4.5m per qtr. When you add test kits sales, then I would imagine Covid-related revenue will be circa £5m. Add non-Covid revenue of say £5m (before NIPT US comes online in H2), then we are looking at Q2 of £10m! Or H1 of £16m, nearly the whole of 2021 FY income!
If they upgrade FY22 outlook to £30m, remember Lynn said no Covid revenue included currently in the £25m in H2, then I reckon we will make EBITDA £6-7m and will record our first OPAT, perhaps circa £2m. That will be a game changer!
And if we follow run rate, it is possible to be above £30m. Come on!!

I think above is spot on really for H1, especially when Lynn said 50:50 re Covid and non-Covid revenue. Sounds like demand for PCR tests still strong and I therefore, expect FY22 to be £30m or above.
A confident holder and holding for 25p+.

I am pretty sure govt contract will either be extended, or new ones set up. We will be entering autumn then winter, so testing will be plentiful even if anyone gets flu / common cold symptoms.
Whilst Day 2 & 8 for vaccinated canned, Fit to Fly will see a big surge in October for last minute holiday makers (already evident in flight and holiday travel companies bookings), then US travel in November......
So, I reckon we will continue to be busy until March at least with a combination of above!
NIPT US test will come live in October, then the 2nd one in Q1 next year.......
DYPD doing well + Cytox partnership re Alzheimer kicking off.
Looking forward to update on Tuesday.

Travel bookings 2-3x due to change in rules. So, "fit to fly" may Day 2 & 8 tests. In any case, I am hearing many more cases even from relatives and friends of Covid positive (but they are ok thankfully due to vaccination), so PCR surge testing will be busy! And even more so as we enter winter.

So, let's wait for YGEN trading update. Not long to wait. I posted my views on the numbers before. I expect a broker's upgrade to accompany it!

And this is just Europe. Most countries need it. And there is the govt contract(s).

Austria — PCR or antigen (72 hours before arrival)
Belgium — PCR (72 hours before departure)
Czechia — PCR (72 hours before departure) or antigen test (24 hours before departure)
Denmark — PCR or antigen (24 hours before departure)
Estonia — PCR (72 hours before arrival)
Finland — PCR or antigen (72 hours before arrival) or test on arrival/quarantine
France — PCR (72 hours before departure)
Germany — PCR, RT-LAMP, or TMA (48 hours before arrival)
Greece — PCR (72 hours before arrival)
Hungary — none
Iceland — optional positive test at least 14 days before entering
Italy — molecular or antigen (48 hours before arrival)
Latvia — any type of test (72 hours before departure)
Liechtenstein — (see Switzerland and Austria)
Lithuania — PCR or antigen (48 hours before arrival)
Luxembourg — test that detects SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid or rapid antigen (72 hours before departure)
Malta — RT-PCR (72 hours before departure)
Netherlands — molecular PCR (72 hours before arrival) AND rapid antigen, molecular, PCR, NAAT, TMA-ID-NOW, or LAMP test at the airport (4 hours before the flight)
Norway — PCR or rapid antigen (24 hours before departure)
Poland — none
Portugal — PCR (mainland, Madeira) or RT-PCR (Azores) (72 hours before departure)
Slovakia — RT-PCR test performed in EU/Schengen countries or the UK / antigen test performed in Austria or Czechia
Slovenia — PCR or rapid antigen (48 hours before arrival)
Spain — RT-PCR or TMA (72 hours before arrival)
Sweden — PCR, LAMP, or antigen (48 hours before arrival)
Switzerland — molecular test (72 hours before departure)

I am not sure people realise, whilst govt may change rules re PCR tests for returning double jabbed, MANY countries still require -ve PCR tests for entry to their countries. The returning test is done in the other countries. I also don't think Day 2 and 8 tests will go completely, will be foolish. PCR tests are here to stay......and in any case, there are enough surge testing locally to fill YGEN capacity. Many of the charlatan companies will also disappear........

Another large distribution channel in Lloyds Pharmacy. Excellent.
Assuming testing continues at this rate, say 100,000 pm, a prudent estimation is this equates to £1.5m pm or £4.5m per qtr. When you add test kits sales, then I would imagine Covid-related revenue will be circa £5m. Add non-Covid revenue of say £5m (before NIPT US comes online in H2), then we are looking at Q2 of £10m! Or H1 of £16m, nearly the whole of 2021 FY income!
If they upgrade FY22 outlook to £30m, remember Lynn said no Covid revenue included currently in the £25m in H2, then I reckon we will make EBITDA £6-7m and will record our first OPAT, perhaps circa £2m. That will be a game changer!
And if we follow run rate, it is possible to be above £30m. Come on!!

Excellent news. Validates our Covid offering, what Lynn told us (1 of 4 tenders he mentioned) and certainly increases my confidence that we will have an upgraded forecast to come.

Covid I am afraid is here to stay. Question is whether we can learn to live with it. And to do that, we have to test, test, test - for the infected and for variants. So, gold standard PCR will be mainstream income as Lynn said now and going forward. We have capacity for 150,000 which I think is used up by private and we have ability to double that up hence the hires. Don't have to be a maths genius to work out monthly revenue of 200,000-300,000 tests per month.

Most excitingly, we are now a Covid play, AND a non-Covid play with our forays into US and Japan, and things re-opening as we learn to live with Covid. Our rerate is here.

The other thing very encouraging, which is why I am very excited re foray into US, is that we have signed two supply agreements on NIPT, not to be confused with the two Ranger contracts. These are under implementation phases with activities to start in October and Q1 respectively. US NIPT is huge! Perhaps the rumoured $25m was indeed signed but can't be disclosed in its purest sense!

Bakky - I am afraid I had same issue once - they look at quoted price rather than price improvement on execution. Good luck though as there were definitely many buys which went through below 13p. I console myself on such occasions by saying I can't time things to perfection and what is the difference of 0.5p if I am after 10-15p appreciation!

VERY good session indeed. All my questions answered, and well too! US sounds like it will be big for us!

Well, here's my expectations:

FY2021
H2 EBITDA positive, resulting in FY EBITDA marginally positive;
Cash balance remains healthy at circa £12m (+/- investments)
Reported loss of circa £3.5m full year.

Q1 Trading update
Strong start to FY2022 - contracts converted per RNSs, inroads into US and significant ramp up in Covid testing
Hard to predict demand given Covid uncertainties both in terms of non-Covid sales and Covid sales but IF run rate continues, we will exceed £25m for FY2022
Not upgrading FY outlook yet and will update in Q4 calendar year
Ongoing discussions with govt to support them, DPYD selling well, NIPT deal under negotiation in US

We will rerate back to 17p and above in quick time :-)

Good luck all.