Celebrate the successes17 Jan 2022 23:37
My goodness, I am getting quite disappointed with this forum. I know the share price is clouding everyone's sentiments and views, but take a moment to reflect. YGEN have just told us that they will report at least £37m revenue, with at least 10% EBITDA. By that, and given track record this financial year, I take it we will be at least meeting that, likely beating it.
Natdan - you pointed out the difference in 2021 v 2022 update. Well, firstly, there is more to explain when you miss expectations. Secondly, and more accurately, Lyn said he will update us all in January about trading performance - this following the HY results and conference all on 14 December 2021. This is specifically to address questions from the floor how busy Covid will be and size of the DHSC contracts. He said these contracts have no minimum order values so hard to tell, but he will update us as soon as he knows more. Well he just did!
Anyone who has already forgotten should refresh themselves by reading HY results, and listening to the IMC video. I just did. For your convenience, there are many growth drivers to come:
- US NIPT launch: should be live this quarter and fully from 1 April 2022. I expect this to quite quickly overtake the international NIPT sales given the quality of the partner, a leading precision medicine company launching a network of new clinical reproductive health screening across all US states. Think they only do it with minimum 80,000/annum per clinic;
- US x 2 Ranger technology clients (with more to come): Lyn said investments being made to relocate and expand Yourgene Canada to accommodate expected sales. He specifically said currently 500 cassettes (consumables) per month, ramping it up to 5,000 per month, as requested by Labcorp + ANO (to be named). More pipeline;
- Other tests: New distribution partners in ME, US and LATM, plus key hires;
- Re-applying facility for non-Covid testing and genetic sequencing: Of the tenders in, 30% are non-Covid. This is even though company expect Covid and Covid related needs to continue for the next 2 years, which I tend to agree. The DHSC contracts only serves to validate YGEN capability and will be door openers;
- Debt financing to avoid dilution for further M&A: Institutions only lend if you can provide reliable CF!
I am equally frustrated with SP performance, and I imagine so are the management! They are doing everything they feel they can and are delivering, yet not being cheered. Well, I say thank you Lyn and YGEN team for delivering us £37m revenue. Genmark Diagnostics which I referenced the other day was sold for 9x sales, and guess what, they are loss-making!
There appears to be a seller in the background since turn of year. I suspect employee/ex-employee perhaps who had options exercised at cheaper price - ppl have their reasons. Once that clears, the SP should follow the progress of the business. I have no doubt, if we crack US as expected, we will be growing further and quickly in FY22.