Member Info for GLR1990

I think the upside significantly outweighs the downside (Hmm where have I said that before... oh yes here lol)

But at this price, looking at the anticipated results, I dont think you could buy the company for less than £40m, BBI sold a division before their big buy out for £36m (https://www.business-sale.com/news/business-sale/health-care-firm-acquired-at-35x-multiple-of-revenue-221651) they did have an EBITDA of £2.2m *adjusted on £10m revenues, we have £16m revenues but look like our EBITDA will be a loss this year

Still, the figures are pretty close as I think we will move into EBITDA profit next year, so if we assume £36m or less put us in the radar of a takeover offer (and why not, we have invested over £10m in capacity increasing to what could be 150m units per annum and a US site) then I struggle to see how someone could buy ABDX for less than todays market cap

Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, the products / contracts that could get us back to £100m MCAP (£1~£1.10)

ABC19 test, if one of the three countries gets approval and we sell a significant amount (1m tests would be around £5m IMHO) then already that is 33% of our 2020 revenue
If we can sell 1m avacta tests a month, then that will completely cover our 2020 revenue (likely to be around £1.50 a test so £1.50 x 12m)
Even if we just sell 500K avacta tests a month, that could bring in anywhere between £6-9m, again absolute game changer in terms of revenue increase for this FY
So I think, at this price, the upside could be 3-400% pretty easy, whereas the downside in theory should be no less than 33% because at that price somebody surely has to buy you out (~£30m MCAP)

The issue at the moment with PCR is capacity, we are doing between 300-400K a day and capacity is around 600K
All close contacts of a positive LFT and then PCR case in a school, need to take a PCR test (well, advised) within 2 days, not LFT (PCR to confirm and allow people to not isolate)
When you add in a travel boom (email the private companies, they are overwhelmed) then capacity could easily become constrained in September
And this wont just be in the UK
Look forward to the H1 update which hopefully comes sometime in August, which if I am correct will show monthly revenues back above £10m (outside of the DHSC) and that is not including any LFT sales

Another few shares for me, just a short term trade pot to try and make back some losses
I think the CV19 products are now completely priced out
ODX presentation comment below is spot on, listened to it last night
3 countries pending approvals will place significant orders, shame it has taken so long but does make sense if you think about countries that have little to no vaccines, will certainly help them prioritise and also issue travel passes etc. so I think antibody could come into its own soon

What tests are 'better' or on par with Novacyt that the UK is using?
Capacity increased by 30K in the last week
Seventh Highest PCR tests in one day, on the 07/07 this week
Surely, even with the disputes, we are still generating bottom line revenue from the DHSC and haven't cut ties with them completely?

When does it begin? :-)
V prices at $50kG?
The sweet spot was $45KG for adoption of VRFB
If you told me in December V prices were going to be $43KG in 7 months Id have piled in here, way north of 20p!

Seriously what is going on, do we need the company to actually come out and say 'hey everyone we are selling V at $43KG and our costs all in are X amount, therefore we are making a profit of X and expect to have X EBITDA by Y/E'

How can it go from $30KG to $43KG and not a single rise here? Not only that, we have fallen 25%

Disgraceful that the company remains silent whilst its share price drops by over 60% from IPO
Only updating to tell everyone the government isn't paying for their products
Any ABC approvals, or is it dead in the water? Still haven't made a single sale in 6 momths
What's going on with the Avacta tech transfer? The only update we get is from Alistair Smith the CEO of Avacta, nothing from this company

Not adding anymore here, terrible comms - sentiment carries a lot of value on the market, especially during a growth period
Whats the current capacity? is it 4m, 8m? Are we still on track for 12m by Y/E?

No idea, might as well go down the casino at least we know the odds

BBI binned off by Avacta due to costs
So just ABDX and GAD remain in the UK now

Really shocking what is going on here with the share price
We are moving with AVCT at the moment so when they are down we go down, up we go up
Payments from UK GOVT still loom, not chump change for a company like this
Results out soon, hopefully EBITDA B/E
Now £46m MCAP

Will be on DHL website in a couple of days they said :-)

Superb News on the projects!

Wonder who/what the Silicon Valley one is?

Agree Yrab, the old phrase of 'has Pete found his pen yet' cannot really be said anymore, he has delivered some good deals, sadly it has been dilution which has screwed over investors (not raising at 10p+ in the summer for example) maybe investors will now want him to lose his pen when it comes to signing off fundraising? :-)

Do I think this is the start of the rerate? If nothing changes in that RNS aka the ratification whether that is just a champagne pop gets sorted, and they begin with ~$6m PA revenues, then yes it will rerate and they will sign more deals in Africa and other areas that struggle to attract the big players (G4S for example)

Has WSG finally turned a corner? Many will still have their doubts, but this deal looks better than any deal they have signed in the past and more solid than any deal they have signed, this COULD finally be the start of a massive re-rate north as the world comes out of restrictions with vaccines and revenues now grow YoY for the next 5 years+

Bought heavy here today, this is absolutely transformational, however two caveats
- Funds needed to complete aspects of the contract
- Formal ratification still needed

Point 2, could be what is holding it back slightly, I dont know how much of a guarantee this is but history here will certainly make people nervous

Point 1 is absolutely fine, bringing in ~$6m+ PA at 50% capacity you will have multiple institutions / lenders looking to back the company at much higher prices

Lots of people trapped here for a while so may be happy to get out with 30% rise, I think its absolutely pathetic, £15m MCAP on this deal alone makes WSG an absolute steal, to to mention
- Lungi Expansion
- TEMA fourth port expansion
- Covid 19 testing partnership

IMHO and not advice, this is an absolute bargain, even if they do raise funds around this price, once the formal ratification process is complete and they deploy staff in the region, this becomes an incredibly attractive post-covid or post-pandemic recovery play, where revenues in each airport could increase by 100%+ in the next 2 years

Stunning deal signed today!

Surely we can help source some contracts for AVCT?
How else are we selling the ABC19 test, if we are in contact with '27 territories' would these potential clients not be interested in purchasing some Antigen devices as well?

Huge news last week for ABDX
- MHRA Approval
- EU Approval
- Innova LFT being trashed by the US FDA
- UK Contract expires with Innova week after next, decision likely made next week
- Sovereign test closer?

What a total disaster Sona Nanotech has been, have they achieved anything to date?
They released a poor performing test, and have now cancelled the saliva test
From 14 cents to $14 at one stage, now back to 30 cents
Sometimes it pays to take profit, what an example that is

I do believe we have/had a TT with them but it has never been announced, nor have we ever made any money from it (unless they are the US PCRD customer but I doubt that)

All about the Avacta test now anyway, which should displace Innova in the UK and sell like hot cakes in Europe considering no other test has 100% SE at CT27 or below :-)

Our TT antigen test has now also been approved in the EU
First orders could now commence at any time

Question - does this mean they can be sold in pharmacies for home use, or do we need further approval for that?

Does anyone have quick calcs vs expected revenues for 2021 with $40KG V prices?
I know our costs have increased but looking at the last price rise for V the prices remained very high for about 18 months, so I would expect good prices to persist into 2022 where our costs are predicted to be lower and our output greater

Appears to be getting smashed by a single seller
I've added another small amount
My only concern is how much of the Avacta orders will we produce, with Medusa, GAD and BBI in the mix
Of course AVCT would not want just one manufacturer, that would be dangerous and we may have a base in the US by year end
At this market cap, would only need to sell a few million a month at £1 profit to seriously change our fortunes, lets hope we can sell many more at better margins / bottom line

Relentless selling from an individual there, 20K and 50K blocks, crashed the price

Strange as our LFT just got approval by the MHRA

Hard to understand, so I have added at 54p

Think we have been taken in like a trouser too wide
Hopefully everyone only put 'punt' money in here