Member Info for GLR1990

made up for all suffering LTH's here
Just remember employees options are 70p, so hopefully a lot further to go
GLA (I still hold)

Agree Urraca if Antibody testing takes off (which it seems to now finally be in the news) we could easily triple revenues (or more) in the next FY

Excellent update

EXCLUSIVE worldwide manufacturer of the Biosure Covid 19 Antibody SELF TEST
Three very valuable key words there

Sens and Spec very good as well, actually better than the ABC19 test
https://www.biosure.co.uk/tests/covid-19-antibody-self-test/

Really enjoyed reading the TT update, for Avacta followers it is clear
- We are producing the Avacta test
- Abingdon has set a high TT standard, they will not accounted completion of TT until they are sure they can produce tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of batches at a high standard e.g. on a mass scale

Be interesting to know what the figures are for this, as they must have sold some BioSure tests to complete TT (unless stockpiled)

Regardless, explains delays in TT - producing 10,000 tests could easily cost £7500+, get it wrong and more costs on top (plus staffing costs)

Very happy with todays update, we now have access to a world leading antigen test and now a market leading self test, which the ABC19 test never achieved (they did get 1m approved but that was a single batch, not full approval)

Back to 70p please on announcement of
- ABC expanded test with scorecard
- Avacta TT completed and first orders
- ABC approvals as a bonus
- Further tests with other developers

Looking much better here now after recent RNS, just that £6m payment from the UK GOVT holding us back

Didn't actually think of that Taverham

I will also do that, very good idea

Felt like crap for 3-4 days after my second jab, absolutely worth it of course, but id rather take an antibody test first

I made a few errors, I didn't subtract that 'cash' in some places will be replaced by 'kind' - not much though and I was conservative with my Subway Y1 prediction so will keep it

In short
The last RNS said we had £7.5m contracted revs, our largest contract is three years so that means we have £7.5m in minimum revs coming in next 3 years

Only one of those contracts are 3 years, the fintech, where year 3 pays £1.3m so we know in the next two years we have at least £6.2m

So even if we just half that we get to £3.1m (as the most simple calculation) and actually, after all my workings out, my prediction is not far off £3.1m, so I might as well have just kept it simple!

£3.1m/$4.2m USD + Merch + Academy Sales + Prize Money/Player transfers

So possibly $5m already for Y1

Couple more sponsors in the $500-1m range and we will be sitting pretty

Spread is a joke here and always has been, no market being made
MM commission the big winner

Evening John

Fintech Year 1 Guaranteed Min £1.1m GBP (~1.45m USD)
HyperX 75/25 Cash/Kind (2 years)
Samsung 50/50 Cash /Kind (1 year)
Subway 2 year Multi Million

1. As per RNS "Subway, Hyper X and Samsung, with a minimum of £7.5m in contracted revenue already secured"

2. As per RNS "minimum contracted revenues for display and gaming peripherals partnerships to £0.9m in total"
This is Samsung and HyperX

So Minus 1/3 of this (as one deal is 1 year the other is two years, simply assuming 300K per annum) £0.3m = £7.2m in contracted revs for year 1, however we need to also subtract the below

Minus Y2 and Y3 Fintech (1.2+1.3) = 7.2-2.5 = £4.7m

We then need to subtract whatever the Subway Y2 deal is... well lets guess how much we definitely have this year from Samsung (300K), Hyper (300K) and Fintech (1.1m) = so we know we have roughly £1.7m this year already

Subway is a two year multi-million deal, so we know year 1 cannot be less than £1m
So current revenues for this annum are guaranteed to be £2.7m, however, looking at other deals (fintech) Y2 is not much more than year 1

So subtract £1.7m (what we know we have this year) from what we have calculated above £4.7m leaves £3m GBP - we need to break this down into two years as the Subway deal is likely ~£3m, so assuming it is similar to other deals lets be safe as say Y1 £1.25m Y2 £1.75m

If we add the £1.25m from subway in Y1 with HyperX (300K) Samsung (300K) and Fintech Guaranteed (Min £1.1m) we get to around £3m GBP in contracted revs for the first year which by current exchange is around $4.1m USD, this does not include Academy Sign Ups and Merchandise Sales

Fingers crossed we get another big multi-year deal over the line and I think we could be looking at ~$7m revs for the first year, which IMHO should value us around $80-90m USD, which at todays share total without any dilution would be about 12-13p per share

Of course we could out-perform this, or come under at $5-6m contracted revs for Y1, but even so if that did happen I wouldn't say todays market price is overpriced, id still say its on the oversold side, as long as we keep growing then really we should trade at a premium, my estimates are always conservative but I think the logic is there!

I dont think it has any right to take off as of yet, but that doesn't knock my confidence that it certainly will

Current MCAP £32m / $44m MCAP

Current contracted revenues ~$4.2m PA (Subway, Samsung, HyperX and Euro Fintech)

Most US peers valued between $150-200m with $10-20m Revs Per Annum

So based on that, I think a valuation of around 7p isn't too off the market

What we dont know
- Merch Sales
- Academy Sign Ups
- Further Sponsors (room for more of course)

Unsure how to value the reach, over 1m followers now

Regardless, I think we are doing very well - definitely need to see a few more sponspors however before Y/E otherwise then I will be concerned, but I think these will come - I'd be very happy with ~7-8m USD total revenues PA for the next two years, I think if we can keep growing our reach, followers and get into more tournaments (and further into tournaments, which will come with practice) then we will too see the valuations like US peers of $150m/$200m+ - which if if they do not dilute, would be around 18-25p

Apart from a cash hole of ~£6m there isn't really any other issues that could arise from the claims, and the share price has dropped by more than £60m because of it

Therefore, if I were a LFT developer, with a huge market cap I would certainly be interesting in taking ABDX for say £35-40m with all of its 'problems'

You dont just get face value, but you get all of the value it adds to your business, Avacta could in theory choose to manufacture all of the UK tests via Abingdon, at minimal cost to Avacta, likely putting those LFT profits to 3-4 euro per test (doubling their margin for the entire diagnostics future)

its a no brainer but at the same time I doubt ABDX would list to offers even 50% above our current market cap

The employees are in at 70p remember! Director bought at 96p!

Sorry not *all cash*, an *all share* payment
Avacta MCAP is £294m, ABDX £25m... absolute no brainer why not take control of a company you will be likely giving 50% of your LFT sales to?
And what about future products?
make it all back in 2 years then profit

I think we will get bought out Neutronic
Too cheap down here

Myles pointed something interesting out as a wishlist for Avacta, not saying this will happen or even has a chance of happening but in theory Avacta could potentially offer an all cash payment for Abgindon, considering the market cap is only £25m and Avacta expects to make a profit of 1-2 euro per test, if Abindon are making 1-2m tests for Avacta per month, then in theory it would not take too long (2 years at 2m PCM = 24m) for the investment to have at minimum, paid for itself, not to mention Avacta will eventually produce more diagnostic products - a £3m EBITDA loss is IMHO due to the extra costs for producing the ABC tests that did not sell and the hiring/firing, plus general CV19 supply issues

In other words, I think we are way too cheap and an offer may come sooner rather than later, think how valuable we are to current LFT developers? At this price they certainly could do worse than making an offer for the company

At home test Muck not a self test, so will be sent back to a lab

Prof Use
At Home
Self Test

Self test approval the golden egg

I think its good news tbh, if the UK GOVT does it other countries will follow suit so might open a use case for ABC sales in other countries

ABDX are Never going to supply the UK again, that ship was sailed and sank

Yep still hold bought some at 30 on RNS day, can buy at ~26p now

Not sure how low it can go but if the avoid dilution then its an opportunity, if they raise into this major weakness then they have screwed us all over

Been my worst investment ever this, tempted to sell out today but held on and decided to do a full review
Went over the results doc and the IPO document

In short, I just cant sell at £25m MCAP

They raised £22m, a good chunk of that has of course resulted in a loss but a good chunk of it will have gone into expansion, they recently announced phase 2 of their expansion was complete, so we could be anywhere between 4-8m tests per month at full capacity

We also still have the following
Current and Future Products / Agreements
- The Company is currently collaborating with a partner on the development of a non-COVID blood-borne virus self-test
- Abingdon is also working on the transfer of two COVID-19 antigen tests to manufacture (Likely Vatic and Avacta)
- Signed four manufacturing agreements; two for COVID-19 antigen tests, one for a COVID-19 antibody test and one for a non-COVID-19 test
- manufacturing agreement with BioSure for their COVID-19 test
- 10-year manufacturing agreement with Bioporto to manufacture lateral flow strips for Bioporto's Generic Rapid Assay Device (gRAD) platform
- Abingdon intends to make a supplementary score-card product available alongside AbC-19TM, initially for research use only in August, which provides a semi-quantitative result to indicate the strength of antibody response and possibly immunity
Opportunity
- Anticipate further registrations in the first quarter of FY 21/22 (mentioned on August 12th so not giving themselves much time…)
- Encouraged by the ongoing discussions in various overseas territories as well as the potential development of a consumer market, both within the UK and internationally, with the general public wanting to know their antibody status
- Abingdon is actively working with commercial partners on securing these opportunities
Revenue growth year-on-year was 123%

I have been investing now for over 6 years, I've fallen in love with some stocks similar to this and got heavily hit back huge losses, of course it can fall further but as of yet they have NOT diluted, therefore the company still retains all of its upside - until they do dilute, I remain bullish, I think the drop is wildly overdone and they are really caught in a spiral, of course it may be dropping because they are looking to raise funds, I really dont know but what I do know is this could easily now do 100% on not even material positive news, simply a payment from the DHSC or a single low digit million order for the ABC19 test

So I hold, I may add one last batch if it goes sub 25p

Scharn they have just finished expanding

Cash burn going foward is not going to be £1.4m a month

That's over £15m a year, they made an EBITDA loss of £3m so obviously they are not burning £1.4m a month without investments / expansion costs

They just reduced 60 staff, so if they stop expanding and conserve the cash then £4.9m should last quite a while, of course they wont wait until its gone but it should last long enough until we have a decision on the DHSC, which is only 4-5 months

They will likely have to put off plans to expand into the US

***Sorry put HyperX instead of Euro Fintech for the £3.6m deal

Highly confident this will be ~15p at some point next year, maybe even before the year is up if we get some big sponsors over the line

Musings below:-

Guild E-Sports Investment Case
Current market cap 6.5p / $48m USD
12 Month Target 15p / $120m USD

Peers
$150 - $200m
• T1 - $158m Market cap, $15m revenues
• G2 Esports - $165m, $22m PA revenues, most watched team in the world (90m hours)
• Gen G Esports - $9m revenue PA, total tournament winnings ~$6m overall, $185m MCAP
• Fnatic – Yearly revs est. $16m, current market cap $175m
$200m+
• FazeClan – Est revs ~$35m, forbes valued this organisation at around $240m
• TeamSolo – Est Revs ~$35m, valuation of more than $400m due to exceptional growth, ~$7m of prize money generated since founding
• TeamLiquid - ~$35m revs most airtime of any e-sports company, current validation ~$320m
https://www.esportsbets.com/news/most-valuable-esports-organizations/

Sponsorships
Hyper X – 3 year, £3.6m sponsorship deal to be paid in yearly instalments
Subway – (undisclosed) 2 years, paid once every 6 months, quote “Multi-Million Deal”
Samsung / Hyper X – Peripherals Deal Worth Minimum £0.9m
Quote – “Contracted Revenues of £7.5m Minimum” would therefore assume the subway deal, 7.5-3.6-0.9 = ~£3m over 2 years
Therefore, in the first 12 months of trading with less than 160K followers, they managed to sign two multi million, multi year deals
Estimated current yearly revenue from sponsorships ~£3m / $4m USD, over the two years, when we compare this to the likes of Gen G Esports who have an estimated $9m in revenues PA and a valuation 3-4x Guild, Guild looks cheap considering they have not allocated all of their sponsorship slots as of yet (with several in negotiation)

Other Revenue Streams
Merchandise – Originally estimated £1m in revenue for this, that is extremely ambitious IMHO but if they could accrue even $500K PA from merchandise that would be a solid win in my book
Academy - £4.99 PA, no figures on this as of yet, imagine it will be slow at first and grow as the brand grows, again not expecting much from this but 10,000 sign ups would be ~£50K PCM which would again be a solid win, likely to be a lot less if I am being realistic
Prize Money – As Teams win competitions, they receive a share of the prize money, I don’t believe this to be a big revenue stream and if you look at the bigger players their total prize money is quite small. I made a comparison that the winners of the EFL League Cup AKA Carabou Cup only get £100K (Yes, Manchester city only get £100K for winning the cup) however it is the sponsorships and viewing figures that rack up the cash so prize money IMHO should only be an indication of the reach/advertising potential of the e sports company
Player Transfers and Sales – They made 100K from the sale of a player they signed in Feb 21, however I would expect this to balance out and be very minimal at the start, unless player transfers go through the roof like in foo

Sadly from top to bottom
DHSC clearly the biggest issue however
- No ABC sales or registrations, it is now August
- No mention of exact capacity
- No mention of producing any Avacta tests
- £2.8m loss since 26th April to June 30th, has this been explained apologies if I missed it?

Seriously considering just cutting this position and moving on, its clearly a very badly run company and the payment issues are masking how badly management are performing at actually getting some value over the line

Also EBITDA was in line with expectations? No, it was in line with your worst prediction
Quote '£11.4m to £17.0m, with an adjusted EBITDA range of £(3.3)m to £0.0m'

Finally BMN have left the building

Offloaded the rest at 4.8p, quite a discount to the placing price in May

Placing at 6p with Tin Prices ~$31K

Selling at 4.8p with Tin Prices ~$36K

And Pi's have the luxury of buying at 5.4p, 10% below placing with 15% better economics

Funny

Well... that was... interesting :o)

Dont think there was any need to build that up, in fact just posting it 'out of the blue' would have probably created more reach but WDIK, would help if the Jersey was on the website or you could view it? No pictures on social media of it as far as I am aware

Doesn't affect my investment one bit if anything I think its a bit funny they decided to do a big countdown everyone got excited and it was a... T shirt :'')

They're engaging well on social media and have grown 160K to 1m so they know what they are doing, I just think they dropped the ball a bit on this one, but lets see when pictures get released it might actually be really cool and attract a lot of attention so dont speak to soon here!

Hope nobody stayed up until midnight!