Member Info for GLR1990

https://twitter.com/glr_1990/status/1374673981014413313

Dont understand the constant selling here, surely not profitable? B/E maybe, but can investors not wait 2-3 months to find out if we have a contract or not?

Was going through the interims again, very reassuring, it was a very good update

ATL today at 80p, dont think there has been a sell at that level?

Be nice to get some updates

Calm before the storm
Hopefully the AVCT test get a CE mark by the end of this month
Then a UK contract in the weeks after

Looks like ODX and GAD are predicted to manufacture from May, once the government has a test (how do they not have a test yet?)

Why do people keep saying news on Monday?
Is Monday the decision deadline for the Uskmouth planning permission?

Nasty drop but it's a sentiment drop not hard asset value
As Ed clearly points out, NAV is around £23/£24m (discounting any rise/fall in Leap Juve etc. since 30/09 aka last audited NAV)
Also you you either value or devalue the BoD, IMO they will find more oppourtunities to make great returns so I value the £7m cash position (excluding minus liquid stock) at more than face value, as I expect Ed to find some nice unlisted, private or soon to be listed plays and I think he can turn that £7m into £10m+ etc.

So for its a total bargain and I keep adding, if I lose I lose but how else can you invest? Surely you do your DD and if the valuation you come up with is much higher than the current market valuation then you have to just take it on the chin if you get it wrong, that's my strategy and I'll stick with it for now, worked quite well with BRH

Ignore

It is definitely referring to listed stock

LGP Yooma and Portage

It cannot be anything else

Was wondering if we may have a loan outstanding or a CLN etc. but for that value it would be widely known

Still, as you say £25m cap give or take, £18m without Leap which is almost the current market cap

Great opportunity IMHO

Although on the interims we only had 149K in cash equivalents, and Portage was listed at the time at $10 a share

Very confusing statement

That's what I thought OMR but technically a liquid stock should not be classified as 'cash equivalent'

Form Investopedia
cash equivalents do not include equity or stock holdings because they can fluctuate in value. Examples of cash equivalents include commercial paper, Treasury bills, and short-term government bonds with a maturity date of three months

I suspect we have included them as cash equivalents, as my calcs are ~£4.9m for Portage and Yooma, and I may have got that slightly wrong so £4m seems about right for the listed entities

Definitely part of a plan, what that plan is I am unsure but they must believe these brands have a bright future to allow the sale to Yooma before Curaleaf (also knowing they would not have been able to hold Curaleaf shares) - looks like they rushed them out to be fair, too much of a coincidence

Not missing anything TA, current fair value is £25m possibly £29m if anyone can explain what the '£4m in cash equivalents' are?

If Leap does IPO this year, then we will see what it is truly worth, I would like to think it is worth a bit more than the £7m from Sep 30th considering they have released some positive news and the financials of the company appear to be trending upwards (was tipped for profit in Q3)

That 75,000 this morning at 9.30am might be a buy actually, looks like the ask was 1.04 at the time looking at the other buys vs the bid price

Agree we have a seller, before this rise they were dumping at any price given, even 83p at one stage - not sure who it could be though if everyone is locked in...

I also like how they managed to sell the wellness brands to Yooma (for shares in Yooma worth $8.1m) a week before the buyout from Curaleaf

So via our investment in Yooma, we still have some exposure to Emmac

Afternoon all, thought I would come on and explain so you can check for yourselves (and criticise of course, as I certainly dont want to be investing on a miscalculation)

Leap, Juven and Vemo are all from the last valuations as of september 30th 2020
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FFWD/interim-results-hyml1u7w4bn03es.html

Leap 7357K
Juven 2468K
Yooma 2075 GBP now $1.50 a share, we hold 4m shares so $6m CAD / £3.4m GBP

There you have ~£13m

Emmac was sold for £5m as we know, CBX and Kanabo another £200K

Now we have £18.2m

As per Ed's tweet we have £2m in cash, £4m if you include cash equivalents

£22.2m

LGP we invested 560K
Brands we invested 750K
Both recent, valuation should be unchanged

£23.4m

We still hold Portage Bio shares, each $1 in Portage is worth $70000 USD, current Sp $31 so 31 x 70000 = 2170K USD converted to GBP £1.5m

Gives you a fair value give or take of £25m / 12p

Now you just have to decide whether Leap Gaming is still worth £7.3m, a lot more of a lot less

Even if we discount 10%, that still gives up an SP of 10.8p before a reassessment of Leap Gaming / IPO

Selling under 9p does not seem very logical, even if my calculations are out by 20%

Nice to see the ask now at 109p
Still only £104m compared to ODX £174m but they do have a confirmed government contract, which if we had I would expect a similar market cap if not more - so let's hope that lands soon
As far as the ABC test goes, that is very promising, I would be over the moon with £50m in revenue from the ABC test by the end of the summer, several tier 1 contracts hopefully we can land half of them

Really like the positive momentum regarding the ABC test
- Enhanced Clinical Data
- FDA Submission
- Several Tier 1 contracts pending approvals
- Multiple Tier 2 contracts pending approvals
- New distribution agreement signed with BioSure UK for Europe and UK
- £5+ per test

I echo CY's comments in the presentation

"I am focussing on what I have and what I can sell now" in response to the Antigen LFTS vs ABC Ab Test

I like the approach, CY has not been blinded by what could be with Ag TT's - yes thats all in the pipeline but we cannot control that, what we can control is manufacturing, distributing and selling the ABC test, at least in the short term

Good move by the CEO

Wouldn't mind it being this one also, Surescreen got an order for 20m tests if you recall back in January, so may have needed the extra capacity in place for future orders / demand

https://www.surescreen.com/products/covid-19-coronavirus-antigen-test-cassette

Order
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/british-manufacturer-surescreen-diagnostics-to-supply-20-million-rapid-lateral-flow

News Just In that surescreen are expanding capacity, if they anticipate significant demand then ABDX tie up would make sense
https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/surescreen-diagnostics-takes-extra-premises-19991739

In the IPO document they mention three antigen companies
One that already had a CE mark, one that had begun TT and another that had not started TT
In todays interims they mention the following

LFT TT 1

Abingdon Health was pleased to announce in January 2021 that an international customer had achieved a CE-mark for professional use for its COVID-19 lateral flow antigen test. Having completed the technical transfer to manufacturing of this product, the Company remains in dialogue with this customer around the placing of manufacturing orders

LFT TT 2 (Pending Avacta)

The Company welcomed the news from Avacta plc in February 2021 regarding the very encouraging performance data on their COVID-19 antigen test. As a manufacturing partner for Avacta, the Company looks forward to moving their product through technical transfer in due course.

LFT TT 3 (New signed in January?)

Also in January 2021, Abingdon Health agreed a contract for technical transfer of a UK customer's COVID-19 antigen test into manufacturing and that project commenced in February 2021.

Number 3 cannot be Avacta as it states TT began in Feb 2021, whereas the TT with Avacta has been ongoing for months and clearly states 'moving through TT in due course'

Be interesting to find out who the third TT is with? Looks like all products now at TT stage / CE mark

No he doesn't, unfortunately

The share price is still up 80% from IPO, he doesn't need to do anything

Most CEO would be more than happy with an 80% return for seed investors and II's

Don't fool yourselves into thinking the company needs to do anything to bail out investors who paid higher than 10p, they have looked after early backers, those where the money invested goes straight to the bottom line (including PB investors) and have a cash runway for the next two years to fully develop their products

They dont owe anybody anything as of this moment, they have already delivered huge returns and have funding in place

In the future (whether that be a month, 3 months, or a year) if there products are game changing and competitive, and they do sell in big numbers, everyone will be rewarded

LFTs now required on an immense scale, at home testing being rolled out very shortly, possibly 2m per day as quoted by the U.K. GoV

Omega can produce maybe 4-8m
Surescreen I am unsure?
GAD look like they should be able to ship 20m a month
BBI involved?

That’s a shortfall of 20m tests, how unlucky would it be for almost every manufacturer in the U.K. to get a contract apart from Abingdon?

Especially since we were the first company of choice when the U.K. Gov decided to make it’s own antibody test

With all the potential ahead of us, I expect the SP to open sub 90p and possible close down 3-4%, because for some reason this company gets zero respect and people would rather pile into competitors with less experience and capacity at double the valuation

Quote "does not seek to procure Tests which are exclusively nasopharyngeal, oropharyngeal or exclusively both."

NCYT PCR test is nasopharyngeal
The Innova test was/is oropharyngeal if I am correct, tonsil and nostril swab?

Which means this tender is for a new test, that has not yet been publically made available, and everything required to manufacture that test