Over View5 Sep 2019 18:20
Haven,t posted for significant time. Still heavily invested and sitting on considerable paper loss. However am beginning to see a light at the end of a very dark tunnel. MTR I firmly believe will become a very different animal post November MOD/SFR deal completion. Painful lessons will , I am sure have been learnt by Management. The key one being eggs in one basket without board representation. Post November MTR will have liquidity of circa £20- £25m. It will, I believe re invent itself as a "Prospect Generator". Will aim to have a significant interest ( circa 20%) in a stable of 6 or 7 projects focused upon exploration. KML and Cobre being the first two and management , according to recent interviews, are carrying out D/D on a number of other high value prospects. I feel confident that by the New Year MTR will be seen very differently in the market compared to the last two years. The fear of dillution to fund a project through to development will have gone, Management will not be bitten twice, They will only invest in projects where management are focused upon the single goal of creating value and selling on a discovery to a bigger player, . With Terry Gammer they have a Geo with a considerable reputation and contacts, hence the Cobre deal where MTR beat stiff competition like SFR to take the cornerstone place ready for IPO next year. With MMc they have an astute deal maker who knows his reputation has to be made on turning the company around and gaining the confidence of the investment community. The potentially transformation NSR MMc negotiated with MOD and SFR could be worth somewhere near $30-$50m this time next year following an aggressive drilling campaign outlined by Sandfire. To have the firepower of £20-£25m at their disposal the MTR management are in a Buyers market, so many projects are starved of cash and by earmarking say £2m per project , to have an eventual stable of 6 or 7 projects, to have jetisoned old legacy ventures like THR and Thailand from Paul Johnson days will see the company with a remaining cash balance of circa £12 -£15m. I personally would like the company to carry out a share buy back of say 15% to reduce the impact of the horrendous dillutions over 2018 at a cost of circa £2-£3m and possibly even take out the Sprott position as I think MTR's days of Rick Rule and Sprott are no longer advantageous and management can stand on its own two feet. It is rare on AIM for a company to recover to Pheonix out, but The MOD transaction combined with a potentially once in a lifetime buying opportunity could see MTR completely transformed. Trust regained , on the provisio that Management communicate a clear and transparent message , acknowledge where mistakes were made , commit to non dillution and that the company will not only invest with a major stake if that comes with a Board seat. I am genuinely hugely confident and await MTR 2 post November with huge excitement and expectation. GR