Member Info for GloucesterR

I bought in a number of weeks ago. Had for many years been in PMO as was and got fingers burnt. Laidback, if your figures are correct ( which I don,t doubt) then towards the end of the year, with all things remaining as is, PMO should have a market cap of circa £10bn giving a £10 share price. The significant effect of joining FTSE 100 with index funds and equity funds having to invest both as part of makeup but also for dividend and sceurity, the $ v £ which has seen an appreciation of circa 10% since 2021 and the reduction in hedging headwind. I am scratching my head why there is manipulation around £5, it doesn,t smell right? I suspect the company will be looking into it, as it is against market trend.

Mirasol, completly agree vulnerability, which is why I think CA will be looking to put company firmly on the market if they havent done so already behind the scenes as intimated by the CFO in Q &A. The vulnerability will be reflected in the price. But as pressure is mounting for a Windful tax, the ability of a larger player to show that it is expanding in the North Sea, with drilling of HUR acerage must look very attractive. HUR is now clean, no debt, decommissioning costs ringfenced , no hedging and a major shareholder in control looking to exit in the next 12 to 18 months.

sorry Mirasol, I believe that HUR is incredibly attractive to a purchaser (at the right price obviously). Yes HUR is vulnerable to 1 well, but I think the Geo's and data room will show that there is a significant degree of confidence in the well now and following on from last update the gas reintroduction is mitigating the need for any water injection. The confidence in well 8 would indicate that within 12 to 18 months HUR could be producing circa 15k plus. With no debt and $200m in the bank after funding circa $80m for the new well. A purchaser will take this into account, whether to strike now or wait and pay more? The tax losses are substantial and someone line Harbour Energy will see HUR now as a clean entity with AM under contract, no debt, no hedging and material upside that Harbour's economies of scale can exploit, added to the need to show the treasury that it is commited to UK North Sea reinvestment. CA are looking to exit, they have focused on the tax losses, they have no confidence in the HUR executives and I am sure will not want to plan for a new well and the risk that, that will entail. 20p would see a significant return, equate to circa $400m which is the gross value of tax losses ( however complicated the CFO makes out) and the existing cash balance , 9k production and acerage thrown in for free!

Sorry Quipp meant £400 . 20p per share

completly agree Easy P . CA will drive this. Existing management know they are dead weight and just waiting until AGM to make an"honourable" exit. I don,t believe CA will want to commit to $80m for well 8 and particularly if the time line is around 12 to 18 months before 1st production. They will want to exit well before then. The key is the closure of bonds to make the company completly clean (decomissioning costs ringfenced), the driver will be the cash generation together with the significant tax credit. I just feel that Harbour Energy will snap HUR up for circa $400m in the summer if not sooner.

To clarify, what I meant was that the CFO said that there were two way conversations and I suspect informal offers have been sounded out. Ofcourse any formal offer will have to be made public and subject to a shareholder vote, but the usual way for an a takeover with management support as to a hostile approach is to have informal sounding s before. I suspect this will come to ligyt post AGM.

Well I agree with the lack of inspiring management and hope that post AGM something changes. Positives though. Well 6 performing exceptionally well and seems to be getting more consistent with inherent gas pressure taking away need for water injection. Company looking at drilling 8 next year, looks like 3rd qtr 2023 before producing. Looking at other near term investments in exiting cash strapped producers which I agree with. Key question from analyst is corporate activity with the $400m (max) tax losses and gut feeling says that there are offers on the table already for HUR to be taken out post July debt repayment and it is just a matter of how much. feel more confident after listening even without any inspirtaion from CEO and CFO (for obvious reasons). Really would like to here from CA or be a fly on the wall!

just listening now.

I have a real gut feeling that CA will put HUR on the market, either officially or unofficially post the July Bond repayment. The company will be completely clean then and the impact of the tax losses for those companies such as Harbour Energy who are making significant profits which they can protect. CA are not in for the long haul and a 20p exit which seems reasonable would equate to a circa 300% return from their buy in point I understand.

I Have a gut feeling post AGM and CA taking full control that the company will be prepared for going on the market. CA I am sure will have a target price (my view , like others is 20p plus), the combination of a modest producer, cash of circa $100m and increasing and tax losses make HUR a really attractive tactical and clean takeover target. I still think Harbour Energy would be a prime candidate.

The conference call should put some meat on the bones!

So key is what are Spirit's intentions and will they fund. My understanding of Farm In,s are that if one party fails to contribute they automatically loose their share of the licence. Will be really interesting how HUR present the future plan. Whether to focus on existing assets or look elsewhere or combination of both. The key will be a producing asset to remove the vulnerability of one producing well. I expect CA will be incredibly cautious and protect HUR's increasing cash cushion as borrowing will be off the agenda.

Thanks Cat 5 for taking the trouble to reply, Il have a look.

Thanks Cat5, so from your reply am I correct that the 3 Lincoln drills were unsuccessful or more work needed?

I wonder if LTH can answer a question for me regarding Lincoln and Spirit. I understand that Spirit farmed into the licence with a commitment for approx $250m exploration costs? Is that correct? Also I understand some extension negotiation with regulator needs to take place before June deadline. HUR should now be able to satisfy funding avaliability requirement to drill but does the Farm in state that if Spirit cannot fund or doesn,t want to fund it relinquishes its 50%? Or have I completely misinterpreted? Many thanks

Daltry, Senseman, Apologies should clarify my post. I appreciate again that I am new. I meant re financial discipline, in that he has just followed the status quo over recent months for fear of exacerbating the situation he created re court case. This status quo together with POO price as you quite rightly pointed out has meant that HUR is now in a position to look forward with a new team. CA are focused on short term gains to allow them to exit at a huge premium which means that financial discipline will continue to be paramount, unlike the vast majority of AIM O&G companies that sadly become gravy trains for management with no skin in the game. I hope that makes sense!

To see how management view going forward. On the one hand you have Maris, whom I understand LTH want rid of for apparently very valid reasons and CA which has a focus on short term value appreciation in order to be able to potentially exit in circa 18 months. I am long in the tooth with AIM and have seen so many explorer's/producers become gravy trains for management or failed promises (or both!). HUR for good or bad seems to have got financial discipline due to Maris and fear of putting a foot wrong now and CA have the drive to create shareholder value without taking exorbitant long term salaries. My hope is that HUR will drill either Well 7 (via sidetrack) and or Well 8. The impact of having circa 5k to 10k additional production with removal of fear of single producing well, should see a multiple re rate. I hope they leave longer term field development to another player who may take HUR out next year. Here's hoping. But as everyone says Cash in the bank and no debt is hard to beat!

In recent update, mention of annual maintenance. Can anyone tell me what historically has been the shut down time? Understand this is taking place in 3rd qtr. Many thanks

Really strong update which was anticipated although i though circa $105 so really nice surprise! Hopefully work going on in the background re well 7 and 8 and Lincoln licence with Spirit. Surely forward looking update to be included in Annual results at the end of the month. Really good production figures too.

Just woken up to check the board in anticipation of RNS at 7am. Have just seen absolute drivel. Please just grow up! This board is about HUR and how we can help ( I am a new investor) each other understand the company and its prospects. Not a forum for ego and drivel!!