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sorry I meant to say that Sunak will apply a flexible approach! ( hopefully you know what I mean!)

Oil executives, well any executives tend to be courteous to each other as they never know when they may be working together in the future , so I suspect Maris has been in touch with the Harbour CEO re his concerns over WFT and to request that these be represented at the meeting. I cannot imagine that Sunak will adopt an inflexible approach as he needs UK investment and hopefully will realise that there is an injustice in a blanket tax. I am really hoping that the tax will be amended so that it is levied on the big boys, so to placate the public and be the easiest to raise.

So Rishi is meeting O & G reps tomorrow, including Harbour, which is important to HUR as UK focused and also coming out of torrid time. Hopefully meeting isn,t just window dressing but an honest dialogue to explain one size doesn,t fit all. Best case for HUR is that tax will be levied, as it should be, on the major players and not minnows. That really wouldn,t cost the treasury anything, but would be brilliant for HUR, even if it meant not being eligible for exploration offset, ( which is pretty irrelevant to HUR due to size of tax losses being carried forward). I suspect that any potential purchaser, or reverse takeover with private equity firm , will be waiting for the outcome of the talks and final detail of Windfall tax. My gut feeling is offer circa 15p which may be tough for LTH's but if Treasury remove WFT on small players then 20p.

Thanks to Kooba on other board Daily Mail suggesting that potential Suitors are looking at HUR. Bit obvious and general but confirms our suspicions. I think any bid will wait until full clarity on windful tax.

So Rishi is meeting Oil Exec's including HBR tomorrow. HBR important as predominantly UK focused. Its concerns to the WFT parallels HUR's. One of its main pushes is to have the tax only apply to Companies with certain level of market cap or profits. Just to agree to the meeting hopefully illustrates concerns that tax is too inflexible and widespread. Fingers crossed common sense prevails at it is targeted solely at the bigger boys.

Suspect nothing more than investors hit by crypto losses and having margin calls. I still think the BOD are lining HUR up to be sold. If forward planning re P8 was serious a rig would already be ordered. Significant preliminary work had already been undertaken some time ago. The WFT has made HUR's acerage more attractive and I understand the more detailed terms of the tax will be published early July.

I think it isn,t that sinister and don,t forget CA will be hurting now! I suspect more mundane reasons over last few trading sessions, margin calls and maybe investors having to cover crypto losses. Gutwrenching but I don,t think it is any more than that.

Wierd times, but it is what it is. Real disconnect , but as everyone acknowledges, without clarification on "these exciting opportunities" creating a forward plan there is an absence of confidence. I enjoy reading Kooba's posts and defer to his knowledge and time invested, on the other board. But I think he may be being ultra conservative. I calculate at $110 oil HUR should have circa $160m. including provision for WFT. having said that The WFT is payable post accounts and will come out of 2023 revenue. (say 1/2 of 1 load by my calculation). I am assuming that net of WFT HUR make $55 per barrel and 2 loads of 550k =$60m taking into account 2 weeks maintenance which is likely to be in September as Kooba says and will knock out half of Decembers lift. It is highly likely that oil will average nearer $115-$120 which will add circa $5m plus . Add provision for WFT of circa $20m We should have cash (gross) circa $170m-$180m. Thats my take anyway.

Perspective! Everything is down and HUR is caught up with the current malaise. I personally think the BOD are simply taking their time, which although frustrating for LTH's ( of which I am not) is to me not a bad thing. I know it is easy for me to say as relatively new, but back in Dec/Jan it was touch and go if the bonds would be repaid , unless short term borrowing avaliable to bridge. Now some 6 months later bond are able to be redeemed and the company looks like having $90m in the bank come end of July. It is very hard ,with human nature, to switch from fear to optimism, and to use actual own funds as opposed to borrowings. I suspect the company has already made up its mind to sell, hence the recent NED appointment, the Q & A answer at recent results presentation and the recent update identifying P7 and basin analysis to give a bit more idea of what reservoir is left and how long the production will actually last. I agree with Senseman that the BOD won,t change but will now, as per the more upbeat RNS's follow the tune of CA. We will suddenly get an RNS saying agreed sale to present to shareholders and if anyone is out they will have missed the boat! I think we will get that RNS in August post bond redemptions and everything is now nice and tidy.

Sense thankyou for your post. Its a difficult one, a real dilemma. If HUR go for the P8 option we are looking at 12 to 18 months hence and I suspect an investment nearer $100m the way cost have risen. That is a pretty long way off for CA , as they will be driving HUR's thinking. It is also a risk, It is so different using your own money and using someone elses! My hope is that the BOD under CA's implicit direction is beautifying itself to present to a would be purchaser true value. There is never a better time to put yourself on the market. There are so few operations out there that provide the tax and revenue benefits of HUR for a medium sized player.

Sense, great summary absolutley spot on!

Sense, Completly agree. CA are driving this and I suspect a deal has been done with CEO and CFO to remain as very expensive puppets for the foreseeable future. I have a question? does anytone have an approximate figure for cost of the P8 drill. ? My understanding is that success and tie back would be circa $80m according to previous guidance but simply an exploration drill. I saw it posted that increased drill rig rates are now circa $200k per day and a drill would be looking at 30 days or so. So approximately $10m? or am I being completely offtrack here?

According to recent data the gas pressure is providing considerable stability to P6 and the water cut again seems to be levelling off. With the price of oil I think there will be a further upgrade in recoverable resources and confirmation that life span is out to 2024/25. I am still of the strong opinion that CA are looking for a sale, and getting all the date correlated to make HUR as attractive as possible. The WFT has made acerage much more attractive and HUr is now a really tidy package with all liabilities ringfenced.

I think the difference this time is that the significant rise in Oil Price will last for some significant time. It isnt going to be a spike and then extra supply and recession brining price back down to historic norms. Most analysts are now looking at a 24 month floor of $100 and top end who knows , but significant cash generation and also a realisation that getting to Net 0 sadly is not straightforward.

July !

In fairness to the BOD ( which may be a hard concept for the LTH's here), I think that the windfall tax has impacted HUR more than most. We do not know CA's thinking, was it to invest in P8? to buy in to another producer? to Sell? or to simply sit tight and see the cash coming in with very little risk. ? I suspect the latter is now off the table. The AGM hopefully will give some clarity. The lack of a forward plan is hitting confidence which should be high due to bond repayment and increasing cash cushion ( regardless of WT). I a sure we will be all the more wiser come beginning of January.

Jamie Dimond of Morgan Stanley has come out and said that he sees a fundamental and incredibly worrying ( Hurricane) knock to global economy. Multi year. He projects oil prices to be $150 to $175 for the next couple of years to 2025. Even if Saudi increase production it will have very little mitigating effect, the same as the release of the Petroleum Reserve. ( 1.6m barrels per day and where are we). China is opening up and Africa and Asia will need the oil and supply chain breakdown is now embedded and sadly this will impact decarbonisation. Hur is now a really valuable entity as its acerage has a real value. CA have a limited time horizon and simply want to negotiate an exit at the heghest possible price and again at the lowest risk, I suspect we will get an announcement soon to say that P6 will likely go on producing until 2024 maybe longer and that will be factored in. The malaise with the shareprice is that no one has a clue going forward and hence we are waiting for some forward plan. But oil is only going one way and Jamie Diamond tends to be very cautious in his projections!

My understanding is that the WF tax is based upon Production. Rather than reciept of sale. So the last offload should have missed the liability. This would tie in with todays RNS which has increased the base case of anticipated net cash after bond repayment at the end of July.
Regarding current share price. This is obviously due to lack of clarity going forward. Hopefully agm should rectify this. The key for me is that HUR is no longer beholden to a 3rd party. The worst case is that The BOD sits on its hands, takes their salaries for the next 18months and HUR should have circa 15p cash in the bank. That I am sure is central to CA's thinking, risk v reward. The tax allowances and remaining acerage are icing on the cake!

absolutely, prudent use of cash, I suspect with CA in the driving seat and market not recognising true value the company may announce a share buyback post July bond repayment, whilst actively engaging with purchasers.

Nonsense!! CA own just under 30% , what are you talking about? They will want to exit as the highest possible price in the shortest time frame with the least risk. It is rare for a small O & G company to now have a board that is in control of major shareholders only focused on realising maximum gains rather than taking exhorbitant salaries on the proverbial gravy train. So my advice is definetly follow CA !!