Member Info for GloucesterR

By early October and the next offload, Assuming $100 oil we should have circa $115m unrestricted Cash and circa $19m restricted. Giving a cash equivalent share price of near 6p! I,m just hoping the next offload won,t be HUR's anymore!

Also , sometime ago on a different matter I spoke to a close friend who was a senior tax barrister. He informed me that on any corporate transaction regarding tax both parties would require clearence from HMRC prior to formal agreement. I am sure that if such negotiations were taking place the delay to an announcement post bond clearence may have been waiting for formal HMRC confirmation of how much of the Tax losses would be attributable and any restrictions/terms to enable fair value to be calculated.

Yes likewise thankyou Senseman. Just mulling things over.... In terms of asset value. HUR has P6 and the tax credits. Acerage I would argue is an addition. (albeit valuable ). I cannot see with circa $90m HUR will be able, by end of September, if that is the BOD's unofficial timeline , that HUR be able to achieve an attractive and accretive tie in with another producer. The economics just don,t add up. To produce say 8k BOPD net for 5 years , from a JV would require many multiples of $90m! I think the only JV/buyout of a third party would be an explorer but this doesn,t help immediate income generation to alleviate reliance on a single well and with P8 having a relatively high COS why pay out and split when you have something on your doorstep. Another small producer I am sure would have their own tax losses or would take many years to benefit from HUR's huge allowance so value would be much less than a larger entity. The only two options I can see is either to go for p8 or sell to a mid tier. I just cannot see a like for like merger or tie in either with another modest producer or an explorer.

If Liz Truss does win the PM contest and as anticipated Kwasi Koatang becomes chancellor I hope that the minimum he will implement re EPL is to mitigate some of the impact upon smaller UK O&G producers. To have met representatives twice and to have stated that he was originally opposed to the Windfall tax bodes well. Although he will have his hands fall with an Emergency budget. I am sure that lobbyists on behalf of the companies will be using backdoor channels once the election is over to push the case for a statutory instrument amendment. I am sure this possibility is also a consideration for the HUR BOD in deciding which path to tread. On a positive note it is now readily accepted that OIL will remain elevated with the DEcember 3rd EU deadline for ceasing ship borne oil imports and February deadline for products (which has more impact). IF Russia stops gas and the Rhine ceases traffic all bets are off!

August unfortunately, for obvious reasons a switch off month. OIl gaining traction again. It seems that HUR sells its oil at circa $3 above spot price. Ive noticed this every offload. According to those that attended the AGM everything will be revealed towards the end of September.

I would like to personally thank Sense for organising the mass email/letters. It appears to have changed Maris's mind. Well done. Positive that as at 10th August daily production circa 8,400. By year end should have net $150m (January). Assuming that is , that HUR is still an independent entity, which I doubt!

August is really a throw away month. Very low volumes and no discernable direction. Brent highly likely to return to $110 plus in September as realisation that Strategic Reserve will need to stop outflow in the next month or so and perilously low globally. OPEC unable to hit anywhere near quotas and Russian EU embargo will be hitting reality in December even with fudge. As far as HUR is concerned it is generally accepted that P6 will go on until 2025 at $100 oil so worst case is just sitting fingers crossed that it behaves and cash rolls in. I suspect we will be looking back in October askiing if the price achieved is a fair one for the sale! My money is on 15-17p!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Dodgy-Demand-Data-The-Oil-Price-Collapse-Conspiracy.html

Interesting commentary that Biden administration are manufacturing demand destruction data to manipulate a lower oil price.! on Bloomberg every other analyst is expecting Brent to return to circa $115 by mid September anticiparting the last couple of months of strategic oil reserve releases.

Schlemiel, good point, but we have a risk/reward dilema. HUR has a management team that lacks any credibility and passion. It has a value based upon 1 well, which is depleating , albeit fairly gradually, but on which its future, including the significant tax credits depend. POO has a reasonable 18 to 24 months left I would argue of circa $100. we will also very likely have a change of Government. So many factors I believe push HUR into a "take the money and run" mentality. Yes provide as rosie a picture as possible of the acerage and P8 potential but the upside risk of spending significant sums for a potential reward 18 months time I think is just too far out there.

Hi Sense, completly agree. Re possible sale, I still think this is the front runner. The EPL has put tax front and centre of UK O& G. It is generally agreed amongst analysts that Circa $100 oil will be here for at least another 18 months plus. The tax break of circa $400m (in net value), can be readily utilised over a far shorter time period with oil prices at that level, rather than carried forward for many years at circa $60 oil. So payback for a purchaser will be pretty speedy. I would have agreed on a potentially longer time horizon and even drilling of P8 if the CEO and CFO had been replaced pre AGM (stepping down with thanks) but by keeping them in situ with a board definetly aligned to CA smacks to me of a holding action whilst negotiations are taking place. I may be wrong but CA are pretty cute, they have made it clear ( just read comments from them on CA website) their distain for Maris etc... and know that a company is only as good as its senior management team. To have Maris et al at the helm for the next 18 months with P8 just doesn,t make sense and for CA, as with us it is all about the shareprice and not the longevity of HUR.

Daltry absolutely agree. That is why I think CA will push for the safer option of a sale/merger. utilising the substantial value of the tax breaks. P8 has ben on the cards for well over a year, all prelim work carried out. if it was the no.1 options it would have been given the green light once funds exceeded, with a reasonable margin the repayment of the bonds. I think it is solely a waiting game as Due Dilligence is being carried out and a final agreed value. I honestly cannot see a commitment to drilling P8 , it just doesn,t fit into CA.s time horizon and in reality they are calling the shots!

Flying pie, We are all grown ups here, hoping to get a decent return on our investment. We don,t need a "Dad" to police our comments or correct our points. It is simply about respect!

Surely Simple you must at times get up your own nose? Surely?!!!

Sense, Thankyou so much for your perseverance. Hopefully management will listen. Well done!

re Director buys. Normally I would be in full agreement for obvious reasons but at the moment I am happy that there are none as the hope is that due to corporate action negotiations they will be prohibited. Here's hoping!

Out of respect to Senseman I have also sent email. Thankyou for your efforts.

I am growing less convinced that the wait for news is in respect of P8. As posters have said many times the leg work has been done quite a while ago (April 2021 RNS) outlining the commercial costs and benefits of such a drill. I still firmly believe that a corporate transaction is being negotiated and anyone not holding at the time will have missed the boat!

Swatay I think circa $108.

Actually, legislation can be amended by the executive via statutory instrument without the consent of parliament. So I believe that if the Govt is actually listening to the concerns of smaller UK focused producers or Truss wishes to follow through with her view the legislation can be easily amended.

Dive, completely agree. It is highly likely Truss will become PM and appoint her own cabinet including C of E. Kwoetang is favourite and has stood firmly against windfall taxes. But in this evenings hustings debate she has again confirmed she is against the windfall tax and I suspect it will be rescinded or severley amended, she worked for 4 years at Shell and understands long term oil prices and the need for consistency in corporate taxation. So regardless of political presuasion ( I am definetly not a Tory) Truss will very likely replace the EPL and that would be transformational for HUR and other smaller Oil players. Regardless of what Dad says!!