Member Info for GloucesterR

So with the recent off load we should have circa $110 in the bank. Assuming OIl firms into winter at circa $100 and 1.5 offloads to end of year should see another $35m net equivalent. So $145m or 6.5p. Add AM escrow and you get circa 7.4p which is where we stand now. The board is ultra cautious, with no forward plan. But P6 and POO is doing the heavy lifting. CA will be driving this, either to exit themselves or to push the board to consider sale. In a climate of fear and markets really fragile HUR is turning into a pretty safe investment and an ultra cautious BOD might infact be just what we need at the moment and just let POO do its job.

Brent getting some traction!

Yes, if I could put my hand up in class as teachers pet is sitting in front of me! 29% gives CA and anyone buying off book a significant blocking, but also a strategic position in which to make an offer. The key for CA I believe is the value of the tax credits. How to crystalise those in any valuation.

I think, sadly , any resurrection of P8 is a bit of a lost cause. Which is incredibly frustrating due to obvious Macro fears of energy security. I think corporate action in one form or another will be announced this quarter. Either off book with CA or wholesale offer for HUR. With the $ strength HUR is a really attractive tar get for another mid cap as $ allows for a 20%+ discount. Management have no plan B and CA have known that all along once the NED was appointed, so it will , as I have banged on before, be all about what CA decides. It really is too risky for management to rely upon P6 alone for the next 18 to 24 months.

I think the writing is on the wall post P8 disappointment. Either HUR is sold to a mid tier to take advantage of UK tax benefits and cash or more likely with this announcement CA are ready to off market its near 30% to a 3rd pty. My hope is that if it is the latter it will be again to a mid tier that wants to get a significant cornerstone holding before launching an unwelcome bid. CA are cute and single minded and will be focused upon the vulnerability of 1 well and the tax benefits attached. The question really is how much? I shouldn,t think we will need long to wait as the CA NED will be well aware of the regulatory issues with P8 (unlike us mere PI's) and giving CA forward notice from which to negotiate.

I suspect CA will be carrying out a full review of its strategy re HUR, by far its biggest asset in its fund. We know that it will not hesitate to take Board level action to protect its interests. Steve on the other board , who posts expertly on well performance has highlighted the risks of P6. I cannot see CA allowing HUR to simply continue in the status quo. The risk to the tax credits , which currently equate to 80% (approx) of market cap at circa 6p, is just too high. No P6 no tax credits for a purchaser/ merger. I cannot see HUR moving out of the UK again the tax credits would not apply. I suspect that it is now refocusing on corporate action, firming up the figures now P8 is no longer in the equation. My take is that it will either be a wholesale Sale of HUR or CA will sell off book to give another player a cornerstone position in the company.

I have a real suspicion that it will be !mn cut with flagging for 0.5 to 1mn next month.

Imminent load I also suspect will be top heavy circa 560k + due to reduced shut down.

So what do we know? HUR no longer enhancing organic growth, so only way to increase production would be to buy producing asset and that would not be economic. Maris highlights "market volatility". Also any investment would be compared to P8 and realistically wouldn,t stack up. Maris is ul;tra cautious, so suspect either run HUR until field no longer economic which looks circa 2 years, and at his age retirement beckons , or merge/ sale to someone like Serica. (SQZ). For the latter , making significant UK profits the tax advantages would be considerable. I suspect it depends upon CA's timespan. Unless 15p offer, cash and paper. My preferred option would be just to let the field run and share buybacks. Clean and simple!

I Just want to clarify some of the production gross and net figures.
It appears that cost including AM and % surcharge amount to circa $12m per month. Hence $89 at last offload and $77m as at end of August. So assuming $90 oil achieved and usual circa 540k barrels we are looking at $50 m gross. September $12m expenses = $65m subtract AM % and $110m which would tie in with companies projections. End of 22, we have circa 1 offload of say $50m or $20 -$25m net ( hopefully POO will recover to $100 plus in November if not before. ) plus 1 half load for December month ( in tanks). So net $10 - $12m give or take. Add Escrow for Am of circa $20m and we are looking at circa Gross cash of $110m (in bank) + $20 ($25m) + $10m + $20m which = $160m. If POO increases back to $100 + as anticipated add another $10m.

There really isnt much point the technical NED's being in situ. It now just binary, sale/merger and discounted tax breaks or pump until no longer economic combined with share buybacks. Either way current SP is a huge bargain. Now p8 out of the way someone needs to make a decision.

Mariog completly agree. The RNS basically confirmed this. Think BOD put all their eggs in the P8 basket and came off empty handed with no plan B. CA have always highlighted huge Tax breaks to purchaser, which has increased substantially with £ v $ depreciation. CA must , see P6 , one well as vulnerability to tax break and I think now it will be finding a suitor ASAP at an agreeable price. There are no alternatives I am aware of for reasonable production with the funds HUR have and Maris himself has said opportunties challenging! The positive is that POO likely to resume increase next week with OPEC + and winter will see huge squeez in Europe with gas as no ability to replenish storage for 2023 and no Russia contiunuing to be an outlier. US at some point going to have to replenish strategic reserve. So yes expect us to have circa $300m in the bank all being well in 12 months.

Realistically I suppose its now a binary choice for the BOD. Sit and let the cash come in. Simple. Hopefully if that is the option then share buybacks will be intiated whilst $ v £ really attractive. However that would mean loss of tax benefits which are significant. Second option sale/merger. P8 was attractive because it utilise AM. I cannot see any other exploration opportunities being risk supportive, the BOD obviously are ultra cautious! HUR doesn,t have enough cash to buy into a producing field that will materially increase production/revenue. I think it is really a no brainer that HUR will now be put up for sale. Say 15p =$350m. Year end should have circa $140m ( $160 including AM escrow). (I cannot see where $110 comes from as HUR should have that post imminent lift). So balance of $200m from combination of $ and shares. Purchaser gets another 18months to 2 years production and 5 -6p per share tax benefit.

Corporate action now, CA need to earn their money! Share buybacks and For Sale sign up! The cost of buying production is just prohibitive! POO will soon be above $100 and into the winter far higher.

Have to go for share buybacks now.

Just keep pumping and put your feet up is one good option. I am unsure what the disadvantage of share buyback is? Incredible value at the moment with depressed share price and $ strength means that currency rate gives a 25% discount!! My comfort is simply that I believe ,as you know, that CA are driving this, Maris is a sitting duck, that CA have shown with their other investments that they take no prisoners and want out of HUR. But above all they want to make a significant profit in a reasonable time scale. How many other Oilers have simply been there for a management team to cream off salaries and options. I am not niave enough to believe CA aren,t cut thrope and have no loyalty to Pi's but we are here to make money and so are they. Hopefully not long now until we know what they have planned. But yes cash rolling in, $ strength and OPEC + likely to cut next week and it is going to be a horrendous winter for gas supply and that can only benefit POO.

Whatever LTH's legitimately think of MARIS and BOD. I think some perspective is needed. Since CA have taken proactice action they have their own fund NED and 2 additional "expert" NED's have been appointed, to complement the existing NED's. Maris is in place because CA see some value in that, not because he has the power to stay in situ post bond repayment. Something is bubbling away below the surface, but I feel confident it isn,t being delayed because of Mari's indecision etc... He, I believe is only in situ because he is a convenient lame duck to CA.

Liquidity is poor, so when HUR rises it really jumps and obviously the converse as now. We know the obvious that cash is building and £ v $ is bringing us to the position where by year end we may have circa 8p -9p cash. Add OPEC + highly likely to announce 1m + cut and EU embargo taking place in early December, we should see Oil coming back to $100 floor. A forward plan is what is needed, which is stating the obvious, but that could/should be transformational and we just do not know what day it will drop!

Sefton , HUR is basically controlled by a hedge fund CA, that is pretty cute and looking solely to achieve highest share price in shortest possible time. My take is that we will shortly hear of a corporate event , which will include P8, either sale of HUR or CA sells its 28% off market, but P8 an important "upside" factor. But if there is no corporate event and P8 is committed the additional cash can return to shareholders via share buybacks which would be my prefeered route>

sorry cash equivalent. to share price circa 9p year end.

Highly likely OPEC + will shortly announce 1m cut to daily production via Russian pressure. Add anticipation that Gas will no longer flow through Ukraine and Europe will have absolutely no Russian Gas. The impact is just not being considered by the market, but the cross over to Oil will be really significant. I suspect we will shortly return to $100 oil floor. Add major hedge funds targeting 0.95 £ v $ on same current level as Euro v $ and HUR will possibly be closer to 9 to 10p year end if still in existance ( including escrow).