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So rumours are that EPL likely to be increased from 25% to 30%. Which although disappointing is manageable. It seems some creative offsetting seems to be reducing the impact upon HUR. My take/target is that if all else fails and HUR BOD can,t or wont secure a deal then with POO at $95 for 2023 . each of the 6 offload should net circa $25m which is circa 1p cash to SP. Assuming a cash balance of circa $140m at end of 2022 (incl partial December production). Then net cash should stand at circa $300m at the end of 2023 with management sitting on their hands. Add AM escrow and we should be looking at circa 13p-14p. simply in cash. No wonder CA and BOD are being cautious . But there is a difference between caution and laziness/incompitence. I would be more than happy for a simple statement saying " We are unable to find any suitable corporate deals and therefore are targeting maximising P6 and cash flows, reducing costs..." At least we could all then plan and make decisions. But that for me would not be a bad worst case scenario. We just need to know!

My God I can,t believe that I am agreeing with everything my surrogate Dad has posted this morning.!!! I,m sure it wont last, you know fathers and sons. He,ll surely annoy the tits off me shortly! but credit where credit is due!

I was just wondering what Maris does all day? Turn up, sit at his desk, switch on the computer. Well 6 pumping, close computer thats it! What must they talk about at board meetings? It must just be absolute silence! Cash rolling in and thats the heavy lifting.

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Weather atrocious outside, bit like the SP so here's my Sunday morning take. Imagine the BOD's conservation about a forward plan post P8. Do they put HUR up for sale and instruct a boutique Investment house to market.? Does CA sell cornerstone stake off market? Does HUR buy into another producer? Or , and this is my comfort at times like this., Just sit on their hands and pump until dry. So take the latter option, HUR states that it has excluded all other options as being unattractive, has at the end of 2022 circa $130m in the bank with this off load. Decides to target revenue for 18 months. At circa $90 oil revenue will be circa $400m and net $200m Which would give $350m (adding AM escrow post 6 months notice. ( excl EPL at this stage). Decomissioning ring fenced. So with $350m cash would equate to circa 15-16p. Now the BOD could be creative and with forward announcement state a structured share buyback , but worst case is in 18 months time cash equivalent SP of 15p-16p and writing off tax losses. That is a pretty high benchmark for other deals to compete against. We have a very cautious management team , we have huge uncertainty in world markets. I personally would be very happy to sit out the next 18 months or so with that kind of prospect. The risk is ofcourse P6 , but that has always been a risk and one that I would be happy to take.

Unfortunately, with no forward plan and our own assumptions about what is going on in the back ground. It will be a matter of just waiting until an RNS drops out of the blue. Share has been trashed for obvious reasons but Oil behaving and likely to get stronger and cash rolling in. Maris an accountant and risk averse. He knows his time is limited and I am sure just wants to avoid rocking the boat. For me its all about CA and what they have in mind.

Agree the BOD have no visible plan. Hence the uncertainty and shareprice fatigue. However fundamentals are still very positive. £v$ is heading towards parity . My best guess is settling circa 1.05 over coming weeks. HUR is very attractive to a mid tier. No debt. ring fenced decomissioning. simple operation. significant and heavily discounted tax losses. Managemnt inertia trashing the shareprice but fundamentals and absence of external pressure from creditors gives HUR time, it just exhausts our patience!

Elb, I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiment. I had hoped that CA would have moved by now post the P6 shut down and confidence that well and basin behaving.
The only solace is that cash is coming in at a rate of knots and POO is also behaving, with the likelihood that $100 will soon be the base line as winter and the Russian /Eu embargo approaches. My timescale has changed, we are now in the position that with the next offload and with escrow monies HUR is 100% cash. indeed arguably the tax losses almost mirror market cap at discounted valuation! I just reassure myself that CA and Kerogen aren,t stupid and have absolutely no interest in whether HUR pumps Oil or baked beans. It is simply a maximised return for their fund. Maris & Co are useless but thenkfully I would rather that , than maverick CEO looking to make their name by a speculative exploration aquisition. It may be a time for caution, and as I said before if it wasn,t for the valuable tax losses just pump until well dry/uneconomic. But I suppose that is a win/ win and tax losses are a very big icing on the proverbial cake!

At least Oil is behaving itself!

DYOR2. I think you are right. But times have moved on and we are where we are. Kerogen have upwards of $1bn under management, so HUR a small nuisance I would imagine, unlike for CA , where HUR makes up significant % of fund. I think management approach now in our favour as ultra cautious and the last thing any of us would want is a gung ho management buying a company like SDX !!! AS I have said before my gut says HUR will announce a status quo position of simply letting P6 produce until an offer comes up. No proactive move by the BOD. What CA do I,m not sure either sell to a cornerstone 3rd pty, another producer/O & G to get a foothold or simply let things roll whilst keeping the BOD under a tight leash!

Easyp I agree. Management under CA's gaze will have to justify any corporate actvity which provides a better return than $150m net cash flow in 2023. That is a really difficult ask. It is really hard to spend your own money (or loose it) rather than someone elses! if it wasn,t for the valuable tax losses the answer would be relatively straightforward, just pump for another 24months or so until no longer economic. I think most of us would be prepared to hang on for another 12 months or so knowing company going to cut overheads' (ie BOD) and just sit tight giving a 7p equivalent cash return over that period., Then sell the rump for the proverbial icing!

Share buybacks have a longer lasting effect as reducing the share in issue. Special dividends are a one hit wonder. HUR is never going to expand organically now so its either a matter of pumping till it drops and make that a publicly stated plan as highlighted in infamous April 2021 report , combined with buybacks/or dividends. Or look for a corporate action. I personally cannot see CA agreeing to a merger/ Reverse takeover with a developer, only a producer would provide the tax advantages of the credits built up in an acceptable time period.

We know that P8 is dead now. So options for HUR limited. Any major corporate transaction will require shareholder approval , which basically means agreement by CA. ( CA will not allow any transaction that will impact the future shareprice negatively) We know that cost of buying into a reasonable producing well is beyond HUR's cash balance and no willingness/ ability to borrow. We also know that Maris & co have absolutely no financial interest in share price and have no corporate ability beyond bean counting. So for me, it comes back to either realisation and confirmation back in April 2021 that plan A is the best option, to run P6 until no longer economically viable, which at $90 Oil I suspect will be another 2 years (end 2024) and bring in say $500m gross $250m net over that period , or to sell to another producer who will benefit from a very tidy operation with substantial tax losses avaliable. Either way it makes 7p an absolute steal!!

I suppose one reason for absence of plan B is that there is nor rush!! The company is making significant money and no longer under a cloud. It is much harder in life to spend your own money than someone elses! I genuinely think that negotiations are going on in the background, but either the BOD or CA (or both) are playing hardball, simply because HUR isn,t under any pressure. Unlike us poor PI's!

NST agree with sentiments. I don,t think the BOD have a plan. Hoping that CA have as they "allowed" Maris & co to stay in situ at the AGM. I have first hand experience of an activist hedge fund with a circa 30% shareholding in a publically listed market where the BOD ( in my case with significant skin in the game) was paralised and the hedge fund made it absolutely clear that they were in the driving seat and the CEO and CFO were simply there as figureheads whilst a corporate transaction was going through. In terms of future projections, I think HUR is on pretty safe ground with 2023 targets. Concensus is at least $90 Oil , OPEC + has shown it will act , and even with global demand waning supply side will mitigate this. Production at 8k plus makes the 50% net of each lift reasonable to. So I personally am targeting circa $150m FCF for 2023. If HUR sits on its hands for the 2023 I am targeting circa $300m in the bank. But hopefully somone will put ous out of our misery soon!!

Sense, I think the easiest way I see it is that assuming $90 Oil HUR's net is 50% of any offload. So $50m (Kooba's projection for current offload) equates to $25 net . So $89 in bank at last offload plus $25m (take off $5m for shutdown period) equates to $110m. Follow forward to end of the year, 1 more offload and assuming $90 oil should see additional net of $25m so $135m and then the additional of AM Escrow ($19m) and 1/2 load as you pointed out.($10m+).

Thanks Sense. Again I have every respect for Kooba and follow his posts. Its confusing, so here is my take. At $95 OIl and 525k offload Gross revenue is circa $50m every two months ( 6 offloads) and this equates to projected 2023 gross revenue from company. The 9% AM fee reduces to $45m give or take. Monthly all in costs equate to circa $10m per month ( broken down to different components but usually $10m) . So net to HUR is $25m. or 50% margin. ( company says 46%). I hope that makes sense. So end of year figures I calculate gross at $160m+ all in.

Add firm view by FX analsyst that a very good chance of $ v £ parity in the next couple of months should see HUR with total cash of circa $135m + $19m AM escrow + .5 load of say $12m = $168m if parity is achieved (strange word) then 8p plus by the end of the year cash equivalent. Surely someone must take us out! Crazy!!

I read Koobas postings on the other board with interest. I am afraid that I must have to correct his figures. If anyone posts on that board (ie Senseman) are you happy to post this. End of August HUR had according to accounts $77m. September dry month. so take off another $10m equals $67m, I agree with Kooba. I also agree circa $50m for this offload. Minus $5m deduction for AM %. Kooba I believe has double counted monthly cost. By my calculation $45m net plus $67m equal $112m which is approximately HUR's management direction in recent update for end of year as I believe they confirm payment the month after offload. Early October to early December offload will come in , in January 2023. Circa $50m again or $25m net I anticipate . Otherwise I concur with Kooba's figures ( double counting for September dry month excl) I hope that makes sense!

Crystal Amber's share price has been really hit of late. I suspect there will be pressure to come up with a forward plan.