Member Info for GloucesterR

I,m really sorry but I thought this was a HUR board?

Sorry Gallder!

Good questIon Gallinder. No I doubt it, and will only really hedge once they know what their plans are. But the fall in Sterling cannot be underestaimated in valuing HUR.

So Sterling has reached circa 1.05 !! Incredible! Potentially going to go lower over coming sessions , with absolutely no sign of strengthening. Although Oil price relatively poor, we know OPEC targeting $100 and I would expect an announcement shortly that cuts are on the way. The £ v $ is huge for a cash building company like HUR as it has a direct correlation to the shareprice. I am just hoping that CA are driving this now as HUR is just becoming a cash cow and with clever hedging of exchange rate hugely profitable!

Hedge funds are now placing huge shorting positions on the £ and it is highly likely that there will be $ parity in the next few weeks. The impact upon HUR will be obvious. We could , if HUR is still an independent entity at the end of 2022 be sitting on a cash supported shareprice ( net of EPL) of 9p! This may possibly change CA's time horizon? But either way hugely transformational for HUR. If pairity occurs , it will stay for a considerable time and for me just pumping out P6 for the next 14months with share buybacks becomes extrely attractive.

Been away yesterday and saw last night the £ v $ and completly shocked. ! Thought it would take weeks to grind down to 1.05 but the fall yesterday to 1.08 is just unbelievable. All supports have gone now and highly likely we will get very near to parity. OPEC will surely signal a larger cut , they have made that abundantly clear. So by my calculations end of year say $150m in the bank plus escrow will give us circa 8p. (excl EPL). hopefully news next week of corporate event/plan. but sterlings fall doing HUR huge favours!

Yes Surely update next week. Possibly Management or CA waiting to see if any amendments to EPL for smaller producers comes out of today's Mini budget.

Something that isn,t really highlighted here is the really positive impact of $ strength.
HUR always quotes cash held in $ and expenses in $. The conversion rate is now circa 1.12 with anticipation that it could hit 1.05 in coming months. Assuming at next offload $120m in bank and circa $19m in escrow for AM security we are looking at circa 6.5p equivalent cash!

Solid build up. Hopefully news in the next 7 days. No excuses now as P6 must be restarting to hit early October offload and confirmation data will be avaliable. Hopefully a not so quick trip to Thailand is in order to give us mere mortals a break! I,m surprised someone wasnt, at the head of the Royal funeral procession?

Sadly some people just love the sound of their own words. ! A percieved expert in every area under discussion. I am sure we have all met them over our lifetimes and just walked away shaking our heads! To put it Simply( no pun intended!) , regardless of the underlying motivations of CA, we know that they are not interested in long term fat salaries as BOD members. They are here to make as much money as possible and have absolutely zero interest in O & G, We could be selling baked beans as far as they are concerned. CA have made it clear they have no confidence in the BOD and do not wish to stay with HUR for a minute longer than required. They are not stupid! They can see from a dispassionate view where the market is going and how HUR will derive the greatest share value ( as opposed to NAV) in the shortest possible time. If indeed December 2023 is their potential closure horizon for the fund, then the worst case would be to continue pumping Oil and get to circa 12p per share cash, or institute equivalent share buybacks as cash continues to build. But basically ensure that HUR just sits on its hands and then get whatever for the company from remaining tax credits and acerage at that time. That to me is the worst case scenario. I believe that something significant is going on in the background and once we get confirmation that the shut down is over and all is well, there will be an announcement. I am sure P8 will be involved in some way but my money is on a cash and equity buyout from a bigger player. Its a Simple as that! (again no pun intended!).

Just watched really interesting interview with Train founder (activist investor like CA but huge), bit that interested me was role of appointed directors on board of invested companies. The founder said that the role of the NED is to bring a plan to the table and work with the CEO and CFO. It was more subtle than applying pressure but continually asking questions and brining a plan into fruition. I suspect that this is what CA have been doing and it wont just be about P8 but involve a corporate event, as you know my view, that corporate event will also allow CA to exit.

NST , I completly agree with your frustration. I think the BOD are waiting until the shut down and maintenace is complete and they feel comfortable with the reservoir date and performance to then press whatever button. Or CA to press the button! If we had more than one well I would tend to be more harsh but P6 is key for obvious reasons and any element of doubt re maintenance will impact any corporate event or plan. Hopefully by this time next week we should all have the answer .

Daltry, you make a really valid point. as expected Rig costs have gone through the roof! Didnt need a rocket scientist to tell the BOD this was going to happen! The makeup of the BOD with existing and new NED's has created a strong technical team and I doubt that P8 decision would have been delayed unless something else is going on. All ground work for P8 has been there for many, many months. We know that HUR does not have the cash, or wish to leverage, to buy into an existing producer to help diversify. To me it is either to sit on your hands and let the cash come rolling in over the next 24 months and then shut down, or CA has something planned and are just waiting for data back from shutdown to maintain confidence that all is well with P6 reservoir and projected production.

I do not believe that CA would act in concert with another O & G to stay in the game. There is no advantage and if you look at the notes on their website you will see they they would have wished to have exited from HUR a long time ago. Hedge funds tend to like clean breaks. The affect upon the shareprice will obviously depend upon the off market price achieved but I suspect we are looking at circa 14p to 15p, CA have made it known that they value the tax credits at circa 6p so 15p would appear to be a compromise assuming the purchaser is looking to use the CA holding as a means to get a foothold. It may also explain the hefty buys recently to bring a purchasers stake up to just below the notifiable 3% threshold. Thus allowing a trigger to purchase the entire company. Would explain why existing management are still in situ and no news for the past few months post AGM and repayment of Bonds. Thats my take anyway!

Really strong support, especially as POO not helping. General market malaise too. Speaks volumes. Hoping that we aren,t just looking at update in the next two weeks but a decision regarding HUR's future. My bet now is on CA having done an off book deal with another larger O & G combined with P8 JV . foot in the door allowing for board representation and opening up the books ready for full take out. Only way CA is going to fulfill its "intention" to distribute circa £60m by end of September.!!

Sense, I think it would depend upon circumstances. ie who is the purchaser. But certainly at 15p would be a huge positive!

A corollory to this. I believe that possibly CA have made an agreement to sell their stake to a third party, mid tier producer, or larger, which will be combined with a JV for P8 and other development.

The RNS confirming the "intention" to distribute £60m back to shareholders was published on 30th June, I cannot believe that the Board of CA would have reinforced this intention (not guarantee) without a fairly confident gameplan of how and where to raise the funds. There was no need to make such an announcement. I firmly believe that HUR is involved in some capacity, Otherwise CA will have to liquidate the majority of its other holdings over the next couple of weeks. As far as I am aware there have been no liquidations of positions by CA since the beginning of July and no corporate activity within their respective holdings to allow for a smooth exit. Again, I appreciate that life isn,t guaranteed but CA wouldn,t have repeated the intention , or would have made some specific caveats, unless the BOD felt comfortable that such monies could be raised, which represent approximately 50% of current market cap (CA).

CA RNS 22nd June 2022.

I,m perplexed! CA have stated that they aim to return circa £60m as a dividend by end of September. This represents circa 50% of current market cap. Looking at the assets they hold and the ability to sell/realise such cash to distribute raises obvious questions. CA would not have made that statement with confirmation, if they did not feel comfortable that they would be able to realise such an amount (plus tax). HUR is by far their largest holding.