Member Info for Globex

Sorrell does talk a very convincing game on AI, uses all the right buzzwords, and I'm sure round the bars of Davos other suits stroked their chins in agreement at his posturing on it.

But as you say Jcj07 - for S4's whopper clients AI is a total gift and has equipped them with tools to go it alone. Generative AI now the biggest threat to the traditional advertiser like S4 and explains why sentiment is on the floor.

If you tot up all the debt, plus market cap, plus the premium that would be necessary, it's hard to see a bidder right now. Absolute buyer's market for sub grade provincial offices. If someone was attracted to their portfolio for some reason easier to wait for the first default and swoop in for the inevitable firesale when they're truly on their knees.

Agree long term investment case for miners weak, the economics are too mad, but as a shorter term (sub 2 year) btc cycle play there's no better way imo.

Proof of work is so fundamental it's hard to imagine the consensus for that changing, so any fork would be the creation of an altcoin like bch, which seems seems self-defeating if when POS demand could be satisfied with likes of eth. Btw if any of that did happen looks like Argo couldn't even earn from staking way things are going, no mention of their final 9 btc, SAD!

I believe Mara's underperformance in Jan is most likely to be down to curtailment for coldness, Cifr reporting that in Texas as reason for their weak numbers.

One theme that seems to be emerging from Jan is miners holding on to more btc, even perpetual sellers like Riot. Strange given they were mostly happy to ditch sub $40k. All for it though, be interesting to see if that continues, if so will ultimately free up a lot of selling pressure on btc.

Good comment Giles. His reply saying he bought £39m of shares is quite specific mentioning 2.5 years, the reason for that is if we go a bit further back he was selling through the IPO at 500p and receiving share awards (link below), so as usual bit of smoke and mirrors with his posturing.

Then more of the LSE sob story to be expected, the thing is if this listed on Nasdaq if it inevitably underperformed who could he then blame without the London punchbag? He's that reasonable would probably have to say it's the fault of the Federal Reserve😂 .

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8947135/The-Hut-Groups-founder-scoops-record-840m-bonus.html

Agree redwineday can't see interest from the big luxury houses. Richemont tried the third party retailer route with their stake in Farfetch and ended up having to write down that investment, that will be a cautionary tale to rest of industry. Most key is that they are all already strong on direct-to-consumer these days, both physical and online, no benefit to be had by absorbing a third party into the chain.

I wouldn't worry about it, can't see anyone sane being influenced by an isolated post like that, and on balance the overwhelming majority of posts on this board tilted towards being bullish about S4 - if anything that's the skewed part given contradictory market verdict.

If you're having kittens about the pretty benign movements on S4 you'll find it eye opening over on the aim micro caps, just look at the top risers/fallers, on most days you'll see intraday 40%+ swings. That's where the actual P&Ds are operating. Might want to hide behind the sofa before doing it though.

Seems a no-brainer at 45p considering decent update today, especially after that 74p bid - even if that didn't get voted through this time around.

Very true GoCPI, BT's multi year long capex program and whopping defined benefit pension liabilities make it one only for the brave and/or very patient. £11bn market cap masks enterprise value of £33bn, nightmare stock.

It was a trainwreck update and I'm surprised price hasn't fallen more. May be something to do with fact it's been sold off for months now clearly leaky. To have one of their holdings go to zero might be seen as unlucky, for there to be this many failures in the reporting period is something else altogether.

You could select investments by throwing darts at a board made up of random companies and do massively better than this lot.

Good to see results in line with expectations and with no more surprises. Overall bottom line pretty decent going considering revenue drop last year, seems they've got a handle on costs. The financing facility being renewed for 5 years removes a huge amount of uncertainty and HSBC wouldn't have renewed/consolidated credit if it was a true basket case.

Most promising is the outlook implying return to profit this year. Do just wish they'd stop blaming the weather. Otherwise fwiw I'm buying here, no brainer imo when it's priced at less than half net asset value.

Good post Lenoman, but I don't necessarily think it's a reflection of society itself, more that these boards just attract some absolute wronguns while also bringing out the worst in some people. So more a case of the mayhem being more concentrated versus real life where people on the whole are generally decent.

Caveat emptor surely

This is like your Huel valuation clanger, glad you're not managing my money!

Craftyinvestor can you back up the claim he donates all his *property* profits to charity? Remember we learned from the IPO documents THG pays him £19m rent annually.

His charity takes the form of adding to his own charitable foundation managed by his wife, which did get a boost in IPO year. What matters is how much has actually left that foundation (ie actually giving to charities), luckily we are able to check those numbers ourselves. To the end of 2022 £2.75m has been spent :

https://register-of-charities.charitycommission.gov.uk/charity-details/?regid=1192727&subid=0

In 2022 total given was £222k.

https://register-of-charities.charitycommission.gov.uk/charity-search/-/charity-details/5169663/accounts-and-annual-returns

More price sensitive stories appearing in media rather than RNS, this one definitely knocked market confidence

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/23/mirror-publisher-print-titles-reach-digital

Since they last bought they must be feeling a bit sore about sitting on what have become 40% losses, and market may well dismiss it as papering over the cracks again anyway. US consumer as resilient as ever, S&P500 near to ATH so fed decision may well not touch sides here. With wider luxury market stable too, it really needs a WOSG specific catalyst imo to turn it around. Hard to see that coming right now.

Well said LosingLess. It often seems to happen across these boards where people fall in love with a share. That defensiveness you see when someone else posts something bearish, almost as if their own mother had been insulted, when really we're talking about dispassionate corporate entities here, and it's just another viewpoint, as we're all free to share.

Do find it hard to relate to but it's that common must be rooted in some primitive tribal gene. Although probably best I leave that to the psychologists.

Huel is a useful example in THG context not for made up valuations but risk of market share erosion.

Every year one of these nutrition/protein brands pops up because the barriers to entry are low. Just go onto Amazon (incognito window to de-personalise results) and search 'protein'. This is how most people shop these days, if not from a supermarket where likes of Glanbia have distribution sewn up.

MyProtein is way down the results because of the sheer volume of different brands available. That's before we get on to the red flag of Amazon themselves retailing their own flavoured whey. As unfair as it is, they always win because their product appears prominently in results and the data gives them the upper hand. At one time MyProtein was effective market leader, especially before Moulding bought it. Now the market has become completely saturated.