Unclear18 Apr 2016 18:12
I'm a little unclear how people are banding about figures of expected monthly returns right now. We know the pre-production costs and that until these are repaid, STI will get 20% of of free cash flow, but how do we work out the free cash flow? I think some people are looking purely at the cost of producing the gold, the selling price and the remainder is what we split - I'd have to disagree with that.
Don't get me wrong - it's great news that we are now getting the production figures, but we need more information before we go shouting about how much that is worth to us. I have about 35% of my portfolio investment here so I definitely want to see it succeed.
During 2016, up to 16th March, 12,280 oz gold was sold, generating Project revenues of US$14.16 million
So around $1,153 per oz
Total operating costs (less closure and working capital costs) currently US$560/oz, with contract-mining cost fixed at US$450/oz until 30th June 2016.
So profit on this is around $593 per oz
Working Capital, Closure costs and expansion plans will need to be factored in before we can estimate the amount of free cash flow that we can extract. Also has there been an actual figure published about the pre-production cost? $45M comes to mind, but can't remember why (I know $39M is for the construction but what else is to be added?).
If we are currently getting 20% and that is the $190k then only about $1M is free cash. I realise this will be subject to change but until we have the other figures I would not look for more than $1M per annum based on what we know so far. I'd love to guess it will be multiples of this but will be subject to the data they are getting in 2 or 3 weeks - and probably another 2 or 3 weeks before PI's get notified.
I realise this is a worst case scenario, but if anyone can add to the missing parts of the puzzle rather than just flaming, it would be appreciated.