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I think its far to early to call on both Cirt and certainly PSE- anyone kicking off about PSE Sales clearly has no idea.. 40-50 IN Dec month isnt bad for a soft launch, meaningful numbers will come from deals with insurers and charities etc.. Barriers are completely different to CIRT which is in the middle of a life or death process..
Its interesting to note how the SP has reacted over the last year - back in August CIRT numbers we presented and SP didnt move a jot - Announcement of the the PSE test (which holders were fully aware was coming) and the SP went mental with AIM Punters alone- follow up to the dissapointing numbers (which i also felt a little tricked by) and suddently cirt and PSE doesnt work , needs more trials, going bankbupt etc etc .. it does make you wonder who buys these shares and the power the AIM moronic herd have over the SP - 50%+ Held by institutions and they havent done anything notifible post results. I think the result exposed Jon shortcomings as a CEO, Alot has lead has been executed very well - PSE Developement, Coding , BUPA, LAB ..Thes are impressive on the ops front , Anyone who held and AIM bio know you can sit around for year waiting for Medicare code.. and beaten thier own targets .. but weve seen that Jon's style is to show us what he wants and obscure what he doesnt - He didnt lie, but he chooses to skip over data - for example at the time of placing he gave a additional figure for the numbers of tests completed - now we can see that it included July, but he didnt provide the specific date.. If he had that metality with SD etc he wont last to the. Unlike most AIMs of this Cap well have big holders who effectively form the majotiy shareholding .. so if he p=sses them about with Bull then he out of a job - or will get a pay cut , they have to vote for it.. what we say is irrelevant.. but TBH nothing fundamental has changed from 10p-50p and todays 15p price.. Other than the RNS PSE, MEDICARE CODE, BUPA DEAL and LAB cert -Q2 Funding has been stated very clearly.. no smoke and mirrors there
Now its gone quiet , it worth looking calmly at the plans going forwards
If you dig further into the accounts H2 "only" used £3 mllion of cash compared to £5.3 Million in H1 , There are some big numbers in there for the placing financing costs also - offset by the £800k recieved for PACT. Revune wise less than 100 -150 CIRT tests made their way into the accounts. I know thats not exactly good, but ingoring the post year CIRT, Cash used (which is the only figure that counts) was better than I expected.
Year End 5.2 million and with the sales as they are and placing costs absorbed, cash burn at current levels is about £3.6- 4.0 million H1
I suspect OBD are working on a smalish placing in leau of PSE CIRT and Farming out the other two -With no growth in sales £5 million would easily see out this finacial year.. theres too much evolving too do a big placing at this point intime.. My guess 15-17p and that will come from the 50% + intutional holders , its a small amount and makes sence to both holders and the company
Shes got 30,000 followers.
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Jp Morgan was an event the OBD was part of .. Investor event for the industry ..it's was put on LinkedIn .. no big deal either way .. as someone mentioned earlier the biggest form of misinformation comes from himself , both positive or negative. Buy high sell low - aim gambler IMO
Dug can't even read a basic RNS .. several times now .. agenda goes from ultra bull to ultra bear in aa matter of minutes - he's a fool IMO
Exactly - Great post, as we all know PSE is performed Post PSA data you can't have the test without it - there score is needed to be submitted with the test. By definition almost everyone who has this test will be high risk, Focusing on high risk group is been made very clear all along. Further validation for low risk is something that will come .. but not top spending priority IMO -
Exactly - Great post, as we all know PSE is performed Post PSA data you can't have the test without it - there score is needed to be submitted with the test. By definition almost everyone who has this test will be high risk, Focusing on high risk group is been made very clear all along. Further validation for low risk is something that will come .. but not top spending priority IMO -
Dug
Don't get me wrong -I'm not defending that ramptastic presentation .. plenty of thing I'm not happy with .. However BUPA is not one of them .. I think you are way off the mark .. it's not patent or oncologist that are going to request the test .. not yet .. it's the insurers job to make sure when a oncolgist summits a recommendation for ICI they have a formal process in place to ensure - 1) tick box - has the patient been offered Cirt 2) Cirt completed etc .Cirt result . Recommendation etc .. a process is need to be captured for the insurer and oncologist .. First stage will be to brief what's coming .. then implement it., metrics put in place etc etc .. obviously this is only an opinion, not sure what you expected happen in 10 weeks. From signature ??? The RNS stated pretty clearly that patients being referred will be offered the test .. but there will be a sequence of works both internal to BUPA and OBD to get to the point.. in not suprised investor relation don't reply if you can't see that ;0)
Hi Dug
Again - we are not targeting low risk cancer screening - we are targeting high risk area as part of diagnosis validation - only method suitable for high risk screening that comes close to PSE is MRI. You are only quoting the bit you want to read .. we are looking to get between the PSA and the MRI / Boipsy Market that's the value in the PSE. Facts haven't changed .. it's been public for a year
Hi Krull
Yes agree, I think the 97 stands out as the one that was the fluke. Till Oct over the 6 months period it's rising - nov / dec are thanksgiving and Xmas holiday periods , but even so was not impressive -if I was being over fair .. month on month isn't a statistic to live and die on .. but that 70%!jump in June was the one that raised expectations so much - over the year tests were up 600% - and all that vital evidence for the case file is being produced. I do support a lot of what Jon has done and the strategy.. and it's import to realise this rose 400% of the back of PSE launch - nothing to do with CIRT - that info was in the domain long before .. If you bought in on PSE news then everything has gone very well - coded and lab certified I super quick time .. to my mind I will look more carefully at what is not said going forward.. No update after the June high was deliberate and unprofessional IMO - He did state back then that he was looking forward to update in Jan - but coupled with rampy words has only left disproportion disappointment and loss of credibility in CEO, but to balance - The technical / physical deliverable and BUPA over the period have been impressive .. what to do on the AIM ?
Dug
You seem to want to re write words fit your changing narrative. the paper .. it say nothing of the sort .. read the conclusion word by word. PSE is suitable for screening of High Risk Groups and significantly better the PSA . It requires further validation low risk groups. PSA is t suitable for either. Are you suggesting Jon should sit on his backside and ask shareholder for 20mil to fund a 3 year trial, non revenue driving trail This is not a drug and even life and death cancer drugs are tested on a few thousand .. real world Case file is the stated strategy for a long time
With regard to BUPA -They are an insurance company - they do not have single owned hospitals or oncologist. So what they need to do is get the information/ process for claiming the test to these oncologists, the oncologist can't give the test to everyone only BUPA so things will need to be put in place and they are huge organisation did you honestly think they would sign a deal 10 weeks ago? Plus Jon stated back in May that they were working with one of the UK largest insurers - when the deal is signed he DID NOT expect any immediate revenue .. I 100%!was disappointed with Cirt numbers but I have no idea why you change your mind on everything in one go
My personal expectation was to see cirt gain modest traction since the last update - however many on here were expecting 4 fold rise in 6 months, and no need for funding - that was not based on any facts, or any guidance from the company. So for me its took a blip ... Cirt was dissapointing I do feel he ramped it in august and its not quite happened yet, but the process of now going to bigger groups with case studies has been stated as a strategy for a long time and is now also happening , that not a panic move - PSE numbers were not relevant better than i thought, as mentioned the PSE was delivered early and most PI's bought in on that news, Code and lab all very quick and delivered early so cant fault that side of the buisness most AIM Bios never meet a programme date, you never get a medi code in 3 months, so they know what they are doing .. BUPA will bear fruit this year. Cirt potentilal had been clear from August and the SP didnt move.. plenty to happen over the coming months and this year .. what they have achieved over a calendar year is inpressive IMO .. just let down by cirt nos
Mikey - I agree - Cirt was disspointing, yes.. and i must admit it exposed weaknessin Jon, but funding was always needed, couldnt have been spelt out clearer in August. It will be interesting to see if any major holders adjust thier positions , doesnt change the tests and as far as PSE is conerned 40-50 in decemenber was OK. Im holding off doing anything untill the dummies have all been thrown out of the pram .. There was only a few on here until the lead in to the results..
404x - you are wrong on that front - have you read the cancers journal that's not what it concludes at all - it concludes that PSE is suitable for use in screening in high risk population , but further trials would be necessary to confirm expansion of this further to low risk groups. That itself leads to OBD target market for the test. If you thought that why did you buy in ? Sound foolish
For all we know Mr Arrivo was strong armed into the buisness also, jurys out for now.
I know everyone is dissapointed with the numbers - I am , however i do think there needs to be some balance betwenn golden ticket and going bankrupt in a matter of a week.
Firstly on funding - there comapny has always stated , based on projections it will need funding in Q2 that has only changed in the minds PI's.. However confidence has taken a big knock because of the drop in CIRT, but again we are early days in the terms of execution , its not an easy task , no matter how good the product is, The BUPA deal is a massive endorsement, but again did people expect them to fly out the door when dealing with a multinational ? Company even state in the may results that they were working with one of the BIggest UK insurers, but didnt expect the deal to contibute straight away. . Getting PSE released and codedin 6 months is very impressive. and its way to early to call PSE some kind of failure .. tad over 2 tests a day in Dec - so 50 last month, that only another £30k a month.. but its way way to early, deal with larger groups will take some time, may be one tomorrow . Plus we have the other tests.. So in terms of funding that will not be a problem - nearly 50% of stock tightly held by large shareholders with much more skin in the game ..However they may demand some changes.. For me Jon came across very poorly .. bluffing instead of admitting certain things have not gone to plan , showed he was more interest in his own ego than being accountable. Time will tell , funding may already being finalised .. Potential v risk
Hi All.
Looking through the accounts - Net Cash used in H2 was £3 million compared to £5.2 million in H1 - we have had quite a bit of sunk cost as well over the period. The rest is non cash depreciation etc.
Hi Dibs - Oh this does matter.. I'm with you on what I hoped for, Its took a hit and i'm not happy. I'm putting it into context with todays SP.. There too much going on and developments can happen at any point - they certainly have done well getting PSE to code and launch within 9 months - PSE caused the SP to spike - but Cirt was more important to me
Fully Agree - but that is a target / expectation set by posters on the BB's - OBD have alway stated based on thier (unknown) targets they will need funding Q224 .. Dont get me wrong - I wanted to se 160 ish+ plus .. and thats been missed by some margin and it has done damage to the SP, but its not a lights out senrio .time will tell.. they have a plan and they appear to have the right people.
404 - No its true, only speculators stating funding wont be need OBD have been fully upfront on that .. Ive known that .. Read Aug RNS ..only a fool would have thought they would not need funding - Even at 200 CIRT test and month they would still need it Q2.. Not saying what the share price will do - but funding needs have always been stated.