The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
10% fake spread - real spread is tiny
Morning
Spread is very misleading - not sure those 100k are all sells - could buy a fraction below mid when I checked 30 mins ago
Its very interesting - If tomorrow I came home with a high PSA and after the referral consultant wanted me to have a Biopsy - there is no way I would go ahead without the PSE.. I really wouldnt't - risks and complications from the biopsy can be bad enough..
Yea agree on that front with a biopsy positive is positive 100% but it's a bit hit and miss in finding it in the first place PSE false negative is better the biopsy ? Maybe I'm being too simplistic
Another thing bugging me - am I missing something isn't the PSE test more accurate than a prostate biopsy? About 20% of biopsy's fail to find cancer that it eventually found
Agree it's fascinating stuff .. and the pipeline is incredible.. I think there is a lot to come over the next few months, it's well worth reading back to the 21/22 webinars, you can apprieate the hurdles to overcome to get to this inflection poin (btw was there an Aug/sept 23 webinar ? Got the presentation but can't find the webinar ) the scale here is immense - Cirt alone BUPA deal has not even been taken into account - I find the strategy of attacking insurer before NHS very wise .. depending on the NHS will kill the company - private sector move- nhs is an embarrassment of everything wrong with nationalised industries and being a political football ..private sector will clamour for PSE - why not it save resources and improves patient care .. lots of tie ups to come IMO - looking forwards to the future
Morning Lewis
I don't think that is quite correct, not read it for a while, will go back and get refreshed .. one thing posted by ASND is that they served notice on EDM to participate in LS .. 120 days from 26th July I think ..
Hi d
Agree, patience will be needed - it won't happen overnight, processes need to change and do attitudes and confidence , a lot of stuck in their own ways etc , I know these board are alway full of BIG Pharma take over BS .. but it's a real possibility .. OBD does not have the scale resources and connection to take it worldwide IMO - if it does then your Multi millionaire thought are on the money .. personally take out or massive licensing deal will come before we get to far. One of the big lobbying MD firms .. also have to consider that products like CIrt could hurt Drug company profits ! Crazy world !! I personally would love to see this kind of tech fast tracked with massive support from theUK Gov .. That what they should be doing - investing in growth ..NHS , Nice etc are fast tracking diagnostics like this , so that could come soon IMO .. with BUPA also - the consultant is going to have to check your provider before recommending action, all others follow .. I think ywe will see this sort on thing on BUPA advert.
Very please to be in .. as bit miffed that I didn't buy in on news .. I've been killed on AIM BIO'S it clouded my judgement
Thanks Dug
I'm half in !! Got another 15k on the sidelines.. just
waiting - agree re grants , but can't really factor those in.. I'm ignoring any revenue from PSE for now .. so being as negative as possible to assess the risk.. I think if I assumed absolute worst case no additional rise sales of Cirt and no revenue from PSE -company would be funded till about June 24 ? So there a lot of wriggle room upwards over the thee coming months would be great to get an Update.. when growing fast from such a low baseline 4 months is a long time .. I personally think yesterdays RNS was the best yet GLA
Hi Both
Yes I am aware, However I only starting reseaching after the RNS so forgive me if i'm off the mark on some things
How I see it (forgive the very rough numbers, just rough logic of the potential
Grant is a one off, and last placing was left quite late.. i wouldnt be unusal for cost to have risen post August with the ramp up speed the the PSC test, lab and codes have all been done at lightening speed.. HOWEVER I'm not seeing these as a negative.. I would be better if the Balance Sheet was more robust, but alot of the investment has been frontloaded and done. 97 test in June and near100% growth in - "Clinical Advisory Boards since May 20th:
• 2 Florida • 2 DMV • 1 NYC Doctor engagement: P2P • April - 27 docs; June to date - 47 docs" etc all point to the 97 test being very historic . If you are burning though money with no revune in this market you will get hammered (11p placing) however if you can show revune growth and reducing losses - No problemo.. Only 200 tests per month would bring in rev $5million a year , GP about $3.7 - 400 $7.4 600 etc and your profitable, and going forward very very profitable ..(and this is only a zillionth of the adrressible market. BUPA alone should smash this IMO - fundraise or not OBD is not long an AIM Basket case.. Four months have passed How many Monthly Tests in Sept/Oct?
I dont see herds rushing for the door TBH, there isnt really any point, This will definately be on radars of many, its more about finding the right time to buy.
Agree, however I think the point a made by someone earlier, its the consultants that will drive adoption.. I see BUPA looing at this a a way of refining spend on very expensive treatments, I have no idea how many patient in Bupa will be eligible for this test, but its clear BUPA will offer to all that are..In my mind this has massively derisked the whole venture, Burn just under £1million a month at aprilwas concerning , but 97 tests a month bring in £200k + month almost 80% margin ? , that was 4 months ago , the consultant network had doubled by april and network has expanded, all have a delayed positive effect .. cant wait for the updates of test progress, but if its doubled over the last 4 months then OBD is on a clear path to massive growth. One concern is that cost for PSA launch will get through cash and OBD is not well funded , so a placing is possible, but i dont think that will be an issu of massively dilutive as there is alot that the market hasnt had time to process yet.
It seems to me the OBD Sp is a bit punch drunk from 3 barnstorming RNS's in under 3weeks, The text below is quite clear -BUPA will offer this test to patients being considered for immuno treatment.. that's a lot of people and BUPA are the biggest ..
Under this new agreement between Bupa and OBD, Bupa health insurance customers who are being considered for immunotherapy with an anti-PD-1/L1 ICI will be offered the CiRT test
OBD have issued 3 RNS's that are one off usually years apart for a AIM Bio..
I think the key selling point and fast track route will be cost savings that both these tests can achieve , focusing clinical need in the right place and givin insurers greater profits .. my dad had 3 negative prostate biopsies ( private ) before the 4 forth was positive and advanced .. if he was on nhs he would been discharged and dead long before his years
Morning
Been lurking for a while , but Finally bought in today FOMO got the better of me. I held off as was initially concerned at the sales of this test , but at 2000-2500 a go at a very large Gross margin make a clear path for some very large growth June was 97 test , which on the face of it looks terrible , but 100%!growth over the previous, I guestimate it would not take many more than 600-800 tests to reach BE ? Which
Is nothing near the potential IMO
I like this bit from the RNS
Under this new agreement between Bupa and OBD , Bupa health insurance customers who are being considered for immunotherapy with an anti-PD-1/L1 ICI will be offered the CiRT test, ensuring their doctor receives state-of-the-art personalized guidance to inform their treatment plan. The partnership underscores the shared vision of Bupa and OBD to improve the quality of patient care, while sparing many individuals from unwarranted side effects from ICI treatments that are ineffective for them.
Hi all - Still alot to play for here. The Goverment stake could be resolved at any time and we have the put option. This is certainly not one for thrill seekers, but worth a longterms holding. I might add, but only on profits from something else. Patience is certainly needed.
Morning
much better sounds coming for Iraqi Goverment, The highlights of those comments below
Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani speaking at an energy conference in Moscow on October 11
The Iraqi government “is ready to resume the export of oil through Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline",
He added that Turkey recently sent notice that the pipeline is ready for resumption, and that the Iraqi federal oil ministry is in discussions with oil companies operating in the region.
"good understanding” between the government and oil companies in this regard.
Nice
The way forwards? - news just out of ADIPEC. Future Licencing Structure
Iraq sets January deadline for oil companies in new licensing rounds
The deadline for international oil companies to send a formal letter of intent for Iraq's fifth + and sixth licensing round is January 2024, an Iraq oil ministry official said on Tuesday. Al-Neama, head of the Exploration Contracts Division in the Iraqi ministry of oil said during the ADIPEC energy conference in UAE's capital Abu Dhabi. "Iraq fifth + and sixth licensing round reduces royalty," he added.
the deadline for international oil companies to send a formal letter of intent for Iraq's fifth + and sixth licensing round is January 2024, an Iraq oil ministry official said on Tuesday. Iraq fifth + and sixth licensing round will have a profit-sharing arrangement and will remove a "huge amount" of investor burden, Al-Hakam I. Al-Neama, head of the Exploration Contracts Division in the Iraqi ministry of oil said during the ADIPEC energy conference in UAE's capital Abu Dhabi.
Hi All
Agree with all the points made - On a brighter note EDM only have 58 days left to pull thier finger out, and ASND were due to appoint thier financier by end of Sept ! (have they ever met a selfimposed deadline ? Zinc on the up also GLA
Morning - I think that these results bring a sigh of relief, shorters and suitors have been alll over ASOS .. Now it looks clear that the plan is working , even if slightly below some pretty ST high targets - given where we were 6 months ago its a massive turnaround.. with challenges Yes, but going out of buisness, No .. Can now look forwards instead of backwards which is a good thing and i think the SP will react, im a buyer at these levels