Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Morning. Altogether now. What a wonderful, wonderful world!!!!
We never did get the real story of the Bordesley delays.
As I recall it was ahead of schedule away back in Feb last year and what happened to AB Impianti gas turbine manufacture as they appear to be using Jenbacher JMS616GS-NL units.
The RNS on10 Dec 2019 overview said:
·; Good progress towards de-risking 5 MW gas-fuelled power generation plant, Bordersley, which remains on target for commercial commissioning at the end of Q1 2020.
Louis Coetzee, CEO of Kibo Energy, commented, "The MED/AB partnership is working well and making excellent headway towards hitting the end of Q1 2020 target to commission our 100% owned 5 MW gas-fuelled power generation plant at Bordersley. This progress is reflective of similar advances being made across our portfolio; we are now well positioned to bring several projects to fruition during 2020."
He cannot be serious if he expects us to believe him these days and I am seriously beginning to doubt his ability and so from now on I am going to send my email queries to C Schaffalitzky and see if he answers my questions as no response from LC.
Morning. Thanks for that Elder. Ah this obfuscatory brings a smile to my face, is this down to the Konyagi or Gongo : O )
Yes things may not get any easier, but it's nice to know that things at least have a chance to develop with a pervading wind of change. As I recall the last grid map I viewed with Tanesco's vision up to 2030 did not look too promising regarding the favourable location of power station sites, so not too sure about Mbeya, but this may all have changed, who knows.
I mirror your thoughts on the coal, however Benga would appear to be our best bet and if we can concentrate on this at the expense of Maybesekwa, it would make all the difference here with at least project heading for FC. Perhaps just dreaming again!!!
Anyway still locked in here, so nothing has changed, let's hope it's not for another 7 years.
Hope the hospitals are now coping with Covid.
Keep your ear to the ground and stay safe and well.
kwaheri kwa sasa
Good evening MzeeMkuki, nice to hear from you.
This is my first post for a while, just read the posts from time to time now. Are you still off shore from Tanz? As I recall you were island based on Kilwa Kisiwani, deep in a mangrove swamp as I remember.
Are you into archaeology, or were you incognito or was it simply not for the wazungu any more and you sound a touch hopeful that we may have signs of change, for the greater good with the new Mamma Samai. Unfortunately, the bulldozer paid the price for his adopted Covid policy and things will indeed have to improve in the future.
You may well be a simple man of the palm trees, but possibly the best chance we have of getting some news, official or otherwise from over there. Sad we dropped the gold, disposed of Haneti and spun off the reserve energy generation, but obviously the best way of funding it. However I think it should have remained with us, as a so called energy Co., as should any other renewable energy such as solar, wind and battery storage solutions along with our latest strategy of a transition from fossil fuel to sustainable renewable energy solutions, such as waste to energy power projects. Energy is energy to me and is certainly not mining/exploration.
After all this time we are down to the 3 x C2P projects and Mast worked out as we thought, with little input to Kibo for now, but perhaps this will change, hopefully. As per the norm not much news afoot these days, with warrants being the highlight for now. LC still does not inspire me, especially with his reluctance to communicate these days via email.
With your ear to the ground or drums, what if any news have you heard on the progress of the Stiegler Gorge dam project?
Also I read that the tender date for the Interconnector transmission line was due, as I recall, on 21 Feb 2021, any news across there on that front?
Morning .
Aerial, I notice most of the text, apart form Paras 1 and 3, are contained in the article from The Citizen, 23 Feb 2021.
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/-new-chapter-in-mining-sector-opens-govt-pledges-3301290
Hope you are all safe and well.
Foxy, just saying it as I see it and your post made me smile. Overall not a good webinar but an the type of Q&A session we have come to expect from LC. If he is to dodge questions he should not have the sessions as he just fails to inspire and instil any degree of confidence.
However very disappointed that LC could not retain the reserve power under the Kibo umbrella, obviously easier to fund if it's spin off, but he still could have offered a rights issue to shareholders along with the IPO. At least that would have created some SH value and offered some inspiration to us. As JDW says we are not important, shame and when will we get that shareholder value he refers to, this year, hope so.
Motely crew were Mark Jarrett, Head of Sales. Keith Swann, Corporate Broker, but never caught the presenter Jonathon's surname, possibly J Roy.
Agree with you on the webinar and why he (as Non-Exec) does not let the CEO have a go, he can't do any worse. I notice he never asked any of my 4 questions, but that's what I expected.
Yes I think Benga is our best prospect currently, but I smiled when I realised it has now moved from Mozy to Botswana. : O )
Hopefully things change with the IPO, we shall see, any upward movement will be welcome, but a long way to go for me.
Jax does get it right sometimes with regards to LC.
More news please LC
Stay safe and well
We are aware that bank financing is arranged for the grid lines, but it has all been quiet for a while and an update on the interconnecting transmission lines and any on-going Power tariff negotiations would be most welcome.
Positive progress news should hopefully make a difference, but we have already seen the slippage in previous target datelines and with these large industrial complex projects it can easily happen as things take an inordinate time as NCCL well know. At least we will have the Warrants exercised and we should be adequately monetised for a while.
In June we were on track to finalise a PPA with Baobab at the end of September 2020 and unfortunately the delivery of the 2 PPAs by the end of 2020 never materialised. As far as I recall discussions took place with EDM on the DFS in Dec and a procedure was agreed in preparation for further discussion on the development and agreement of the PPA and set for January.
So perhaps an update shortly on these 2 PPAs and news on the Mbeya exporting power prospects would be welcome as I think there was a tender out for the Interconnecting Transmission lines with an end date of 21/2/2021, as I recall.
MED, an energy project, fully complimented the C2P very well as would other renewables such as wind, solar, hydro and battery storage system solutions, but that is only in my opinion. MED appears to have raised funds with little effort, however what has always been bothering me is that there are not too many details issued regarding the revenue, actual profitability and financing on each of the reserve power generation sites, but no doubt all will be revealed by the end of the year, once these are commissioned. Still no answers from LC re a sundry of emailed questions. Hopefully the IPO presentation and report will document more on the financial aspects of MED and a chance for questions to be raised and answered and not skipped over.
Now with MED gone and having to fund itself, it’s all down to the 3 main coal to power projects, including two coal resource supplies to boot. Thus, we are now in a position where we need to concentrate all efforts into progressing the Benga project, as this appears to be the most promising prospect at the moment to come to fruition. Anything else will be a bonus for me. But the question is will it happen this year? LC said last year was to be exciting and no proclamation from LC thus far, this year. It at least appears that the dormouse is starting to awake from hibernation, so perhaps the LSE listing decision will be a good one for a change. However, LC needs to perform better than they have done with Bordesley and we still do not know the real story with the delay now pushing almost a year and I am sure it is not solely down to Covid and AB Impianti.
Hopefully we have a fair run of Benga news this year and I think it is likely that Mabesekwa will move at a slow pace at the expense of Benga and who knows, perhaps LC will look at the coal sales opportunity from there in Botswana, as we have a 35% share of a 761mt coal resource or maybe even sales from Mbeya, who knows? Perhaps he should have a word with EDL to learn all the basics of selling and suppying coal.
Mbeya was the killer for me when the domestic power supply tender was effectively negated and JPM slammed the door shut and opted for the hydro power from the Stiegler Gorge dam. However, the door there may still be partially open with two Mbeya opportunities in the pipeline. Firstly, there is a slight or slim chance of the domestic power supply being re-tendered and LC stated that they had taken steps to ensure they can participate in any tender process invitation for further Coal fired plant for the domestic power generation by Tanesco. But is this still applicable? Secondly with perhaps more enhanced prospects is the power supply export market route to neighbouring countries through the East and South African Power Pools.
Morning. Good to hear from JDW these days and along with Foxy, SGB et al, you are all cheering me up a wee bit with these projections, I hope you are right and even though you'll all be millionaires before I get my money back, that's life and some win, some don't. Nobody forced me to invest and it was a good prospect 7 years ago and perhaps it will change this year and again be an interesting and exciting venture to further develop and progress forward towards a rewarding project delivery. However, I still think this may take a while to get one C2P project to FC and perhaps I will be able to average down later this year, when I may possibly have funds. For now I sit and wait as per usual. I assume of course we will still be at low levels and anything below my 4.84p will suffice.
Time will tell regarding what SP we will achieve in 1, 2 or 6 months’ time, but I cannot see any return to 4p ish without significant project progress, such as news on the PPAs for Benga for example, as the Baobab PPA is well overdue and re-scheduled. Exciting Project development news has to happen for us to gain any real value. Promises and missed targets dates are not enough, regardless of KAT and MED. We can factor in to the SP as much of our share in these subsidiaries as we see fit, but ultimately the market will determine this. KAT will come to production in November and MED is unlikely to add revenue to Kibo short term, if for example we have lease payments to be made for 80 months. It obviously will be interesting to see what percentage Kibo’s retains in both KAT and MED at the year end. So far so good and anything north reduces my paper loss. A Q for LC.
Despite the long SP drop from grace the project overall has kept me frustratingly involved and semi occupied over these ever-stretching years. Yes, we have to move forward, however nothing changes the fact that LC has continually changed strategy over the years moving from an explorer to explorer/miner to an energy company and dropping and disposing of an array of projects, which in reality had known mineral potential and were fairly attractive propositions and Haneti in particular springs to mind with LC reminding us of a $750m plus tag. Where would we be if we had retained the nickel and the gold, rather than Imweru and Lubando reversing into Opera to supposedly fast track their gold production, however this strategy never lasted either, as these two were virtually given away for sweeties. Just as well for the Blyvoor tailings project.
SYM - I think with the virus on the go Tenerife may be out this year, but there's always next year. We'll mull it over!!
Good to hear from you JDW and it sure is a long time for some of us and getting longer, perhaps as Bob D says the Times They are a Changing. Mind you when locked down what else is there to do, I do try to learn this 6 stringed thing and maybe one day the guitar man will help. Perhaps I should try and learn Spanish that will keep me occupied 24/7.
Have a good weekend.
Morning Xerxes yes so very true and it would be nice to start at this level. JDT is spot on as I thought it was a tad disappointing that LC could have created some shareholder value by offering a rights issue to LTH as well as the IPO offering, although this would not benefit me as nothing to invest. At least Wimbo has been able to average down, good for him. Interesting to see the share out of the IPO. We have an IPO and no real reference to revenue generation and profits, but for now we have 55% down from the pre IPO of 73.89% We never did get the real story of what happened at Bordesley. I suspect it was not all down to Covid-19 and most likely planning problems. It will be interesting to see what percentage of MED we end up with, as Kat reduced from 57.1% to 25.44%
Also disappointing was the gold disposals, the JV with MTR, ala Paul Johnson and of course Haneti, which we knew had potential early on and MED. We changed to an energy company and for me diversifying into the reserve power generation and other renewables including battery storage made sense and fully complemented the coal to power projects. However, LC probably spun off Sloanes to ensure he got the necessary funding away more easily. But for sure it would have been nice to have been considered in the placing.
Now the IPO is done, we can concentrate on the 3 main C2P projects and we need these to start to moving along and even just one PPA from Benga would indicate that at least one project is likely to materialise.
I think or rather hope we do reach somewhere in the region of 5p that way I earn a small margin from my 4.84p ave.
On the whole better sentiment today and although I am unable to average down it was more exciting early on with some share movement and heartened to see my 4.845m shares were worth £18,411 rather than £9,690 at 0.2p, so was only down 92.2% rather than 95.9%, but still a long way to go for me. Only need a 12.74 bagger, (well just over 14 now) but it beats a 24.2 multiple requirement to B/E.
Any way GLA
Morning Deecay - Read similar this morning re Vale entering a HoA, but issued via Mitsui and obviously do not refer to Vale selling. Not bad, Vale buy their 15% for a $1 and sell it for $2, (hopefully to Kibo) and double their money. If we were lucky, we buy direct from Mitsui and save a $1 !!!! Wish I had managed to double it instead of sitting on a 95% potential loss. Yes too many figures. So coal project next or not, we can just about afford a $1 or so?
I wonder how long it will take for Vale to sell the coal project?
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210120005795/en/UK-Regulatory-Announcement-Mitsui-Entered-Into-Heads-of-Agreement-for-Moatize-Coal-Mine-Nacala-Corridor-Rail-Port-Infrastructure-Projects
No internet yesterday, but my old post anyway and missed a great day for a change with 10% of the shares traded. When was the last time we had this?
Wimbo - Great guns now 45.7m, nice work to get that average down, afraid still unable to lower mine, that’s life as it was my decision to invest and should have got out earlier like some others have done.
Without a doubt there is a much better buying in SP these days. But the constant sell has been apparent for a while and where are they getting the shares from and are they finished?
Been in since 2013 and I bought in at 9p and then lower at 2p and thought that was the bottom, so unfortunately still on an average of 4.84p. No funds for shares till possibly in June at the earliest and most probably will miss the lows, "C'est la vie." But the question is will I get my money back, only needed a 24 bagger from 0.2p but having increased by 34.7% to 0.2762p I only need a 17.5 multiple from here?
Hope this starts to move this year as we have had some barrens years and it was not the exciting year that LC envisaged with not a lot delivered. Perhaps he has received another crystal ball for Xmas. As ever apprehensive on whether LC will deliver, but only option for me is to hang in there for now. We have certainly not had anything significant for a while and delivering at least one of the Benga PPAs would indicate that we are at least starting to progress towards a potential project delivery. Just don’t want another repeat sparse year with a placing and consolidation and then another placing and we end up doubling the 5m shares in issue.
Thanks Aerial - I thought Kibo always had an option to sell coal, if it was cost effective and because they haven't done so it was perhaps too costly and hard to make a profit, especially when you see the likes of Vale struggling. So with potential markets out there and if it’s profitable, surely it beats another placing with no other revenue arriving. If EDL can do it with their apparent labour restrictions, then why can’t and don’t Kibo consider this?
How long will the most recent placing funds last, and if the warrant are not exercised, what happens? In the Settlement and Termination of the CLN and Placing on 17 September 2020, LC had the audacity to re-price the warrants downwards, reducing from 1p and 0.8p to 0.6 and 0.4p respectfully, is he likely to do this again to ensure they are exercised? Once we increase to the 5m shares in issue, what follows, a consolidation and then a placing?
If selling coal can generate adequate revenue to cover working and operational capital, it has to be an option surely and have they at least considered it? Never heard LC voicing any consideration of coal sales in the past. I did email this Q to LC, but no replies these days.
Aerial, thanks for that full heads up. So they have spent a fair amount getting to that stage and unless the are managing to export some coal, it looks like exporting is probably, as we thought, a fairly onerous task. So in that case, perhaps coal sales is not an option for Kibo, unless as a last reserve. It's obviously looking better for EDL these days if they are profitable and beats the revenue we have coming in here.
Thanks for your time and trouble to enlighten me.
Aerial remember this:
China Struggles for Coal
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-12-22/china-s-struggling-to-keep-the-lights-on-amid-high-flying-demand?__twitter_impression=true
"authorities are urging coal miners to produce more"
"This is all happening as coal, the fuel of choice for a majority of China’s power generation, remains in short supply"
————————-
The Worlds second largest economy struggling to keep the lights on, and the Chinese authorities are urging coal miners to produce more !!
Nah, not dead !!
Do you know if EDL are reacting to this market opportunity and what are Kibo waiting for, the coal price to go up?
Out of interest what sort of start -up costs did EDL incur setting their coal sales operation up and are they in profit now?
Kibo need the revenue. If they achieve nothing with these 3 projects for another 6 months or so we will surely implement a another placing and once up to 5 billion shares in issue, what number do they plan to go for thereafter, followed by a consolidation then another placing? Perhaps LC is just relying on the good news, whenever it arrives, to increase the price and get the warrant s exercised and money in?
Is the sale of coal a feasible option before we are actually forced into this considering it?
As alluded to in earlier posts, why does Kibo not take a leaf out of EDL's book and sell their Mbeya coal, they have 121mt of black stuff. They have stated they require 650k tonne per year for operational requirements for a 150MW plant (albeit Benga), so plenty of scope to sell. So surely it makes sense to sell coal from 2 of the 3 possible Projects and therefore fund future capital and operational requirements. Botswana has a huge coal resource 761mt with 266mt attributed to Kibo. Selling coal may help to save more large-scale dilution coming our way consolidation or not.
Enjoyed the Crawley win, I wonder if Marine can upset Spurs?
SGB - Yes looks like the 2019 article refers to 6 Flex Gen sites, which are diesel and one gas site. Pity can't access the original article to confirm if gas or not, anyway someone must be selling if we are buying these shovel ready sites.
Aerial - Sorry it appears that link which I first posted on 27th August, then 7 Sept, are now just giving an error message. None of the links open. The Morningstar investment article indicated the lack of profits with the plant and that they were mulling over a sale as I recall.
I think there was other articles about the same time, however the only ones I can see are for 2019 which I have posted below. Not too sure if the contents were the same or not as they refer to 6 gas gen plants up for sale. The 19th Nov article indicates they (PPG) had an indicative offer for their plant.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/plutus-powergen-enters-equity-funding-collaboration-agreement--6974794.html
https://www.sharecast.com/news/aim-bulletin/plutus-powergen-shares-slide-as-it-mulls-its-future--7126611.html
Afternoon Wimbo, I think that may possible be our source of acquisitions for the Reserve Power Generation sites as they are deserting the reserve power supply area due to unprofitability and selling 9 sites.
Posted previously, 7 Sep, Plutus Powergen PLC, have a number of generation sites up for sale. The outlook however from the web article below did NOT sound too exciting re the Reserve Power Generation
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1585750090348083400/plutus-powergen-funds-running-low%3B-mulls-sale-of-all-investments.aspx
Jax re dilution, we cannot deny, well diluted and we are not finished yet, with 5m shares a possibility, time marches on.
Re quotes. “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.”
NCCL - submitted their Power tariff in March this year although they have not had it finalised yet, but as far as I know it is up for board approval in Q1 next year. They say formal feedback in the New Year, which I take to be on the latest Developer Studies submission, as against a full finalisation, so either way, perhaps they are nearly there. On the basis that we have not submitted our agreed PPA tariff with EDM yet, they appear to be at least 9 months ahead of us, unless we of course hear otherwise from LC.
The last RNS said, “These next steps are in preparation for further technical and commercial discussions that relates to the development and agreement of a PPA, following the agreed process and procedure set out in the existing MOU with EDM. Said discussions have been set for January 2021.”
So how long for us to finalise? Perhaps LC will enlighten us with some future target guidelines, he mentions that the BPPP can still be delivered within the broad timeline discussed in previous announcements, but I can’t remember what these were.
In addition to the EDM PPA, Kibo have a binding term-sheet coal supply agreement signed with Vale and also 2 further PPAs to agree on, which this far are a binding term sheet with Baobab for 200MW and a non-binding one with Vale for 37% of available power (100-150MW). So with the optimised DFS presented to EDM, things might start to move if one of these PPAs are agreed/signed. This would be a positive indicator that the project is more than likely to proceed.
The Baobab Resources PPA was to be signed in a 'few weeks' according to the news release on Oct 1, so will this arrive shortly? The draft has been submitted as of 17 Dec. They purchased more land and so could look to add renewable technologies to the melting pot, such as solar or wind, coal to liquid tech, however it appears more likely to be the provision of base load electricity storage systems they have referred to in conjunction with ESS.
No doubt all will become apparent next year.
For those like me who will have a long time to wait before breaking even at 4.84p, a simple Bob Dylan quote -
What’s money? A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do.
Another money quote by Will Rogers - The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket.
Is this LC’s quote?
There is no royal road to anything. One thing at a time, all things in succession. That which grows fast, withers as rapidly. That which grows slowly, endures. - by Josiah Gilbert Holland
Let’s hope LC does not say next year will not be as exciting as this year.
Have a great New Year and all the ver