Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks for that take away feedback bcl. We have had solid progress news from Benga and let's hope the positive news continues and if the Baobab PPA arrives, hopefully the EDM PPA will not be too far behind it at the end of the year. Great if they can start to meet targets. However, as far as I know NCCL have still not signed their PPA with EDM yet, so perhaps once they have theirs, we will follow.
Clarification on meeting the end of the year PPA may come from the webinar.
Perhaps they are more confident now re Benga and hence the change to a webinar. It has to be an encouraging sign and hopefully it'san improvement on the filtered selective questions raised at the past Q and A sessions.
I would add if I could, but I can't.
I couldn't open the African Power Pool link posted previously, but this one may. An update on how negotiations, if any, are progressing on the exportation of power from MCPP would also be welcome.
http://www.escom.mw/kutsaira%20pushes%20for%20more%20power%20generation.php
Well as I posted previously, scrap the Q & A and have an Webinar, so perhaps the worm has turned, but will he answer emails?
Somebody mentioned patience and boy have we had plenty of practice the the years.
MCPP - Re the interconnecting transmission lines, anyone seen any proposed start and completion dates which may be a useful indicator of timescales for MCPP. Also, so far, no real news on the negotiations re the tariff across the countries. I don't suppose that the domestic power supply will ever be revived unless the dam drys up
bcl - Ah that sound promising, but how interesting?
Can't get in to TXL at the moment, can we not register for the webinar without having to sign up for the spread betting?
Well as we got the 2 RNSs, perhaps he is eventually getting the message, we need updates, it appears blatantly obvious he is aware of the discontent and how we feel about missing the deadlines dates, but these are his own dates. He must have read the scathing posts on the KAT board, I thought we were bad, if he hasn't he should. He apparently used to read ours, now I don't think he even bothers to reads our emails. Anyone ever get an answer to their email?
Well at least we had an update so an improvement in the right direction.
Now what about news on the review he allude to and what about an update on Botswana?
Thanks for that malcolm and to your scout, so how does LC expect us to believe that the delays were down to Covid-19. He must be sadly lacking if he thinks no one would check this out. I won't go on and on today, but I think we are definitely not getting the real reasons for the delay.
Perhaps LC wants to forget about targets and go back to the shortly, imminent, expected, soon, close, nearing, at the tipping point, stars are aligned, in the future, immediate future, on the horizon, looming, waiting, impending, fast approaching, upcoming, anticipated, forthcoming, in a wee while, style of narrative. That way he meets all targets.
Bordesley was supposed to be end of March 2020 and we received duff info on this, as it should have been commissioned in early September, if it was solely down to the Covid-19 delay. We never received the true story on that and as far as we know the site is untouched. Then they announce the MED IPO and with an end of year date, so they can now blame the delays on this and bring the commiss. date forward and call it, ahead of schedule.
Re Botswana the target date was due on 20 March when we were to sign the coal supply agreements and the PPA along with the supply to commercial power off-takers and in addition sign a PPA to supply exclusive power to PCP from KP1. So, both of these are away overdue and still no news, but they attribute the delay to the coronavirus.
There has been a lack of info on Botswana for a while, which is concerning, particularly as they were talking about reviewing across the projects. (unless the MED IPO was the review result). Also surprised that in a 27-minute interview LC never referred to Bots. Nevertheless, I was pleased to see that Bots was at least referred to in the recent report, so not disposed of yet!!!! So I hope CS has not just picked this off previous old news and that they have in fact completed the review that LC alluded to and we get news on this shortly.
We know there are to be a whole lot more shares to be issued and possibly required and you have to wonder what percentage of these projects we will be able to retain. I imagine that the 5 million shares will easily be reached and of course we have the warrant give-aways, but at least it generates cash. Albeit some of the warrants related to a previous placing have been realigned downwards, from 0.8p and 1p to 0.4p and 0.6p. Obviously, pressure applied to look after the usual crew.
Re MCPP, it is more that a year since we had the go ahead to export power to the East and South African Power Pools from MCPP, so given the distinct lack of news, has it stalled completely? The Mbeya heavy lifting is done, study wise, although further work will still be necessary. However, no news to indicate if they are actually in discussion with the power utilities of the neighbouring countries re the agreement on the relevant tariff rates and no news on the progress of the transmission interconnecting lines and target date. It all seems so quiet on this front.
Perhaps bcl will not be too far wrong and these projects are split into separated Companies as it may well be easier to arrange project funding and who knows maybe it makes more sense that way.
There may be PPA news and we know there should be KAT funding then MED IPO news and surely even LC can't muck up the KAT funding opportunity when there are 14 interested parties. The decision on the funding sets KAT up nicely for development, however there is still a long way to go to achieve gold production as the 7 May RNS stated
‘A total of 18 months was allowed in the Study to complete the drilling, Mineral Resource updates, Feasibility Study as well as plant and infrastructure designs, manufacturing and construction before production ramp up to 250,000 tons per month’.
‘Timeline to first production still achievable within 18 months’
I patiently wait as I have done for the last 7 years on hopeful news on the main projects, the 3 coal fired power plants.
Great if we hear good news re at least one of the coal fired power projects, however, I am sure we will not be disappointed and that any news that comes will not be straightforward.
I wish we had 14 interested parties re the power funding, whereas we only have a brief reference to Wimmer on the aspects of project funding, but again, no real details as such.
LC said 2020 will be an exciting year for us, but maybe he meant KAT and MED, meantime we have to wait and see exactly what he means.
Re Benga they have issued slightly different info on the PPA due dates and perhaps LC can meet at least one of these dates below.
- On 26th August, LC indicates - PPA discussions / negotiations with both EDM and Baobab are on schedule for completion by the end of this year and the beginning of Q4 respectively
- On 17 September, LC says - Finalise two power purchase agreements in Mozambique before the end of 2020 for an aggregate offtake of c. 350 MW.
So, the end date for the Baobab PPA looked like it was delayed again.
- On 23 Sept CS writes in annual report - The Baobab term sheet provides for exclusive negotiation with Kibo on the PPA and as these negotiations are at an advanced stage, the Company anticipates signing of a final PPA before the end of Q3 2020.
After 3 weeks the end date for Baobab PPA appears to be delayed and now we are to receive news at September end.
So, what is it to be LC, only 2 days till the end of Sept.
Come on LC get if this is to be an exciting year get the news out, 2 in one day will suffice, don’t wait till Dec 31.
As said previously, I hope I’m wrong but, as we await the 2 PPAs for Benga, I think it’s most likely that nothing will happen till the end of the year. Also, if there is PPA news, it is probably tentative, but unlikely to be finalised, if NCCL is a guide to go on, as they have still not finalised their PPA yet and they are more advanced than ourselves, well at least in the negotiations with EDM. However, it may well be that the discussions on Baobab are moving faster. What do I know it’s only my thoughts on it and I’m very skeptical that LC will meet his target dates based on past performances?
Sorry, don't think we'll be rich here for quite a while yet.
I believe that one of these 3 coal projects may bear fruit, eventually, but when, is the real key question and is LC the man for the job?
Also just a slight minor difficulty in average down, with no funds. Perhaps LC will give me a loan he helps all of the other crew to make money.
No problems when it comes to CLNs and placings and give-away warrants and then he calls them stakeholders, partners etc. They even reduce the previously agreed price of outstanding warrants from 0.8p and 1p down to 0.4p and 0.6p respectively, obviously a bit of pressure there and how much will this cost us. As expected fine for those with the warrants, as they will be well catered for by LC.
Great if we hear good news re the coal fired power projects, however, I am sure we will not be disappointed and that it won't be straightforward. Surely, he can meet one of the target dates, as there are a few variables to pick from.
LC said 2020 will be an exciting year for us, then let’s just wait and see exactly what he means by this or did he mean just for KAT and MED.
On 26th August, LC says - PPA discussions / negotiations with both EDM and Baobab on schedule for completion by the end of this year and the beginning of Q4 respectively
On 17 September, LC states - Finalise two power purchase agreements in Mozambique before the end of 2020 for an aggregate offtake of c. 350 MW.
So, the end date for the Baobab PPA looked like it was delayed again.
On 23 Sept CS says - The Baobab term sheet provides for exclusive negotiation with Kibo on the PPA and as these negotiations are at an advanced stage, the Company anticipates signing of a final PPA before the end of Q3 2020.
So what is it to be, after 3 weeks the end date for Baobab PPA appears to be delayed and now we are to receive news in 7 days.
I hope I’m wrong but, as we await two possible PPAs, I think it’s probable that nothing will happen till the end of the year. Also, I think any news is likely to be a tentative PPA figure for one or the other, but unlikely to be finalised, if NCCL is a guide as they have still not finalised their PPA yet and they have been a stretch in front of us, well at least in negotiations with EDM. Perhaps negotiations with Baobab will be quicker. Any way what do I know.
Just read the RNS, well scanned. Not impressed with the salaries but I won’t moan. I was encouraged that they have at last referred to Botswana within the doc, so perhaps still alive, but have they completed their review and all 3 projects are to progress?
As usual it incorporates expected typos and noticed that re Botswana target date referred to 20 March 2019 instead of 2020. Either way delayed and they blame it on the virus
Re KAT, can someone remind me after they sort out the funding, what are the target dates for starting the development of the goldmine and the commencement of gold production.
I thought you might be mulling it over. Yup you agree with SGB, he also said BJ. Were you at the match in 76. I was in Benidorm that year, it was a scorcher here and when we came home everyone was browner than we were, we only went for the sun.
How's the isle these days.
Could do with some input from some of the old regulars like yourself, Wimbo, JDW, Shrubby, Staypositive, etc. but we all eventually move on. Nice to hear what all your views would be on Kibo these days given where we are with an ever increasing share issue and as usual at give-away prices and with not a lot to dispose of now.
Do we know if the if the outcome from the review is the decision to list Sloane/Med through an IPO, or is the review still ongoing and we may find the Botswana project is next to be disposed of?
Re Botswana, on 20 March we were due the signing of the coal supply agreements and the PPA along with the supply to commercial power off-takers and the on the same date the signing a PPA to supply exclusive power to PCP from KP1. So these are long overdue and still no news.
For a while we have had no mention whatsoever of Bots, which is concerning, especially as he has referred to a project review. There has been plenty of opportunity for LC to update us on Mabesekwa, including the 27 min interview, again no ref to Bots. So what is happening here?
With all of the shares that are going to be issued and possibly require, one starts to wonder how much of these projects we will be able to retain, if and when we get to FC.
Can we have news please LC and whilst you are at it how much has our percentage share in KAT gone up for the services rendered to them by Kibo?
SGB – Not a cricketer myself but a question, remember when Michael Holding was the bowler and facing him was the batsman Peter Willey, which gave immortal words “the bowler’s Holding, the batsman’s Willey”. Do you know if this was actually spoken during the match?
We know of course that the first two in the batting order, KAT and MED are not our main projects, but KAT will be until something happens with the power plant.
LC has to deliver this one so, that’ll be a first, but KAT is a definite earner and more likely to add value despite the fact we have reduced from 57.1% to 29.63%. So, this will be profitable when they start to mine for gold, but when is the mining start date is?
Re MED where I thought LC should have offered a rights issue to PIs, so far, finance wise all we have is a revenue stream of £7+ million with no indication of the period covered i.e. 10, 15 or 20 years, and also no indication of the yearly revenue and profits other than the IRR and does this refer to the capital spend of £1.7 million for 9MW site, or is the IRR for the capital spend on a multiple sites? Or did I misread this? They said they were targeting for 100MW so at various MWs, so this may be 10/12 sites. Did we ever get any update on the $100 million funding?
Bordersley was supposed to be commissioned at the end of March and from the start back info, it should have been commissioned on 2 September even allowing for the reported Covid-19 delay by AB Impianti. But we never got the correct reason for the delay and so any other date is a delay and they will attribute this to the IPO. Altogether, not too impressed with the handling of the project up to when they announced its disposal. We have 73.89% pre admission and hope to retain 51%.
My concern is If they cannot bring a small gas generator plant into commission on time, we have no chance with a large complex coal fired power station. The two compliment each other and I feel we should have kept the reserve power projects, albeit it appears that Plutus Power Gen are deserting this area and selling 9 sites.
The 3 plants, or perhaps it may be only 2 x C2P plants are the ones I want to hear about after 7 years of frustration and waiting.
Re MCPP, it is more that a year since we had the go ahead to export power to the East and South African Power Pools from MCPP, so with the distinct lack of news it appears to have to stalled completely.
It appears that the Baobab PPA has now drifted to end of the year along with the PPA for EDM. So, nothing exciting this year on the C2P. So another delay and these project delays lead to a requirement for more money, more shares and less future project retention, which starts to worry me a bit. So Benga, no news till end of year, what about Botswana?
bcl - I have the fig written beside my PC, on 7 Oct 2013, it was 141,116,691 shares, don't know if this is spot on or not.
Hard to believe what the last CLN and placing cost us, I decided not to work it out as it would just bug me. We are shortly to be here with 2,154,776,522 and for every 500 million shares issued we get £1 million at 0.2p, give-away prices, and how long does this last. So as you say 5 billion shares unlikely to be be enough. No wonder he wanted headroom.
bcl - Looks like it, as ever more P,P and P for news, unless we get their review outcome.
On 26th August, LC says - PPA discussions / negotiations with both EDM and Baobab on schedule for completion by the end of this year and the beginning of Q4 respectively
Now 3 weeks later on 17 September, LC states - Finalise two power purchase agreements in Mozambique before the end of 2020 for an aggregate offtake of c. 350 MW.
So, the end date for the Baobab PPA may have been delayed again. Or is it just the communication?
Probably PPA wise nothing will happen until the end of the year and I think if so perhaps just a tentative PPA figure, as it is unlikely to be finalised based on NCCLs progress where they still have no final agreement as I recall. Tried to check this am but can't access their data.
LC said 2020 will be an exciting year for us, but not too sure on his interpretation. Bprdersley away overdue and now Sloanes disposed of and no news whatsoever with Botswana, perhaps another disposal candidate after their review, or was the Sloane/MED IPO the review outcome, who knows?
Just to remind you of how quick they moved this along, the RNS last year stated:
"We hope to replicate the success we have had with Bordersley, which, from its acquisition on 20 June 2019, is on track for commercial commissioning at the end of Q1 2020. ....................
"MED is progressing at a tremendous pace; we are delighted to be on that journey with its team and look forward to 2020 with confidence."
We never did get the real story for the delays as it was not all down to the corona virus and as far as we know they have not started on the site yet, but some one night be able to check across Birmingham way on this. Also, there some thought that there might still be planning issues, who knows?
If it had been down to Covid-19, going by the start date by AB Impianti it would at the worst have been commissioned at the start of September.
Pre admission Kibo will own 73.89% of MED and hope to retain at least 51%. In comparison with KAT, we started with 57.1% which has subsequently reduced to 29.63% so far.