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No internet the last few days.
KAT will start to produce November next year at the earliest, but how much of this will we see? Also regarding MED revenue, we are unlikely to see much of this with the lease payments they will be making and what percentage of MED will we retain?
This time next year it is more likely to be less than the 51% LC hopes to retain. We have already seen Kibo share in KAT reduce from 57.1% to 25.52%.
Considering Haneti was referred to as a £750million resource by LC , it was a give away and almost unforgiveable was KAT giving away 35% to Power Metal (ala Paul Johnson of Metal Tiger) for £150k, how crazy , did LC really mean that valuation figure?
Afternoon Deecay, Feliz Navidad to you. We have all just to say it as we see it.
I almost forget, Feliz Navidad, is what we would be singing if we were in Tenerife, but alas not this year and so our first time at home for over 20 years. I think that's the reason I'm freezing and as soon as we have the vaccine we will try to get away.
Have a great day and hope we get that good year.
Staypositive - Your post is most surely mirrored by all of us here and after these torrid times I hope it all comes to pass and we do indeed break even at the least, who knows, next year may be more exciting than this year?
Laguna and bcl, as they say on 'Strictly,' Keeeeeeeeeep posting, it’s a free world, or supposed to be.
It would be a shame if either of you go and stop posting, no hurrahs from me, just shrug it off, forget it and say your piece whenever you feel like it, it's your prerogative to post as you desire.
Different attitudes and posting different opinions are what it's all about, variety and contrasting viewpoints on our progress, or lack of it in our case these days. It’s great for people to say it as they see it, nice honest opinions.
It isn’t a problem to narrate how totally frustrating this share is and it isn’t a problem to believe it will come good. We all make our own decisions and of course we have to live with them.
Good news would certainly make a difference I would think, however I can’t help it if I’m doubtful given our experience these last 7 years or so.
At least Britexit appears to be in Santa’s bag now, of course the details should be interesting and we should know in a weeks time.
Shame about the lorry queues at Dover, they should have made a decision earlier on testing and it's sad for so many to be stuck in their cabs over Xmas.
A very Merry Xmas to all and I hope you have as good a festive season as the latest restrictions allows and remember to stay safe and well.
Reserve Power Plant – Briefly, Bordesley as I recall had a commissioning end date which was supposed to be at the end of March 2020 and even allowing for the Covid delays in weeks, commissioning should have been at the start of September. They attribute the delays to Covid-19, but I don’t think we ever informed of the real reason and as far as I know there is no site activity.
23 July RNS stated – “This will include fast-tracking the development of Bordersley, the first 5MW gas-fuelled power generation plant in the MED portfolio, which is set to be in production before the end of 2020.”
This RNS also stated – “ ……..our Benga Power Plant Project in Mozambique is continuing to advance at pace, with the delivery of two PPAs for up to 400 MW expected before the end of 2020.”
7th September stated – “Acquisition provides opportunity to potentially bring Bordesley into production well ahead of current target date for 1st production, which is currently set for Q4 2020.”
23 September Chairman’s report stated - Originally, scheduled for commissioning by the end of Q2 2020, progress has been delayed by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and we now anticipate that it will come into production before the end of 2020.
22 October 2020 Unaudited Interims stated re MED
o Bordersley commissioning now scheduled for Quarter 1 2021
o Listing and IPO preparation for MED well advanced and scheduled for completion before end year.
It appears to be next year for any commissioning and revenue as Bordesley or the other 9MW site is now penciled in for commissioning in for Q1 of 2021. Quite a small project and so one wonders how it’s almost a year late when it was at the advanced stage in Feb for the commissioning at the end of March, so I think there’s another reason for the delay and I suspect it’s because they probably screwed up the planning process and therefore no site activity, that’s my guess.
By comparison our Gas Power Generation Plant is small relative to a Coal Fired PS and what is concerning is, if they cannot commission a tiny gas plant on time, how will we manage with a larger more complex coal fired PS plant, that can take 3 years to construct and bring it into commission? I did ask about that.
News most likely next year, but LC, news shortly or sooner would do just fine.
SGB, yes it was an advanced draft at the start of Oct, backwards right enough. It does make you smile re their wording over the years.
Oct 1st - The original anticipated date for the finalisation of a PPA of the 30 September 2020 has therefore now been extended for a few weeks and the Company will keep shareholders updated on progress.
They at least have a draft Baobab PPA submitted now, albeit without an end date. Perhaps he's learning.
Why could he not have said a few weeks ago that they are hoping to submit a PPA, advanced draft, draft or otherwise, rather that using the words finalisation. At least we now have an idea of what a 'few weeks' stands for. Better than nothing for Xmas, although I don't suppose it really means anything until it is actually agreed.
2nd last para ending says ".................and also expediting timelines for delivery of first power to Baobab."
Have we seen these Baobab timelines?
Also as I recall we have 65% with an option of 85% what are the chances of achieving this?
No word on the MED IPO I thought this was moving at a pace?
MCPP – Following the tendering fiasco when Tanesco effectively withdrew all tenders for the domestic power supply, it’s over a year since we had the go ahead to export power to the East and South African Power Pools from MCPP. However, it appears to have completely stalled as there is certainly a distinct lack of news? In terms of the project study work most of the Mbeya heavy lifting is done, but further work will probably be required if power exporting becomes a reality.
However, no news to indicate if they are actually in discussions with the power utilities of the neighbouring countries re the agreement on the relevant tariff rates. Also no news on the progress of the interconnecting transmission lines and target date. It all seems so quiet on this front apart from spotting a global tender document, GTR No. 28020546, which indicated that the interconnector construction tender closing date was18 Feb 2021, I wonder if this is still the case? I can’t recall if LC referred to this in his webinar?
On the possibility of supplying power to the domestic market, in the webinar, LC indicated that although the MCPP tender did not materialise, all Indications are that it will be re-issued and we are ready to participate and advance this project, but will it and when?
It looks like the exporting of power via the SAPP and EAPP is the currently the best prospect to kickstart any development of MCPP. Perhaps they should have tried selling coal as per EDL. Don’t know how the SG dam is progressing these days.
Wimmer has no exclusivity on MCPP so interesting to see the if and when and where the financing materialises. I wonder if they had the MCPP funding pretty much in the bag prior to the tender fiasco, who knows?
Perhaps as bcl thought these projects may be spun off into separated Companies as it may well be easier to arrange project funding and who knows maybe it makes more sense that way?
So it appears that the exciting news will be KAT, MED and a slight possibly of the Baobab PPA and perhaps any real excitement will start next year and as it remains Benga is still the most advanced coal project, but the question is, when can we expect positive news on its delivery?
All of these query aspects were in questions along with a host of others I sent to LC, but as expected still no answer these days.
So, news or no news it’s a tad like Britexit?
Either way if it comes it comes, all the very best to all and here’s to a more exciting year than this so far.
At least we have a vaccine rolling out and more on the way and thanks to the Chinese for sharing the genetic coding which I assume saved a few months.
Good luck and here’s to 2021, but I think LC should have shoved over and let someone else have a go in running the show.
So, we still have 3 PPAs to negotiate with Baobab, EDM and Vale, in addition we require an EISA, optimisation of the financial model and DFS for an integrated project, finalisation of commercial CSA, EPC spec and bid process and interesting so see what money, if any, will be involved here for the EPC privilege. I can’t remember if they mentioned a Bankable FS. Then of course how long will it take to get to FC? So, if no Baobab PPA shortly, imminently, soon etc., I think it is next year for the exciting news, if it is to come.
Another Q to LC if no revenue, why can’t we sell coal from 2 of the 3 projects as per EDL, who I believe must be nearing profit. MCPP mine mouth plant has a 120mt resource so, definitely scope to follow EDL’s example and sell coal, whilst we await project development. However, would LC make it profitable?
Botswana - Project potential includes a 761mt coal resource which will supply the proposed power plants, a 300MW (KP1) and up to 600MW plant (KP2), with a coal off-take to a petrochemical plant (PCP). Following restructuring, 35% of the 761mt of coal, equates to 266mt of coal attributable to Kibo, so as with MCPP, plenty of potential to sell coal as the PCP, KP1 (35%) and KP2 (85%) usage is only 7.5mt per year. This could be a potential revenue source whilst the projects are advancing, but will they adopt it? It may generate more revenue than the earnings loss attributable to the MED reserve power spinoff, who knows?
The project target date for the 2 power plants was due on 20 March this year, when we were to sign the various coal supply agreements along with the PPA for MCIPP to supply commercial power off-takers from KP2 and the signing of a PPA to supply exclusive power to PCP from KP1. So we have another slipped delay without any real explanations. So, these are away overdue and we had no news on the next estimated target dates until the webinar.
Re LC’s webinar he was very blaise about slipped timelines. The casual reference to almost brushing aside any slippage stating that these timelines just slip by, well what was that meant to portray as it certainly does not inspire any confidence in terms of future announcements on forthcoming targets and timelines. What are we to think?
However, LC did say that Botswana has been restructuring with partners and that the project is not inactive, it is just not receiving the bulk of attention. The delay was down to partners progress and he referred to the coal to liquid (CTL) project taking longer and that the largest impact was from Covid-19 and they had to prioritise the portfolio, so, the focus has been on Mozambique. Thus, progress will not be as quick as Mozambique and will invariably follow the pace of the CTL project. Perhaps we need to watch for the progress on the petrochemical plant being developed by Coal Petroleum, 80% owned by Shumba, Power China and the Wilson group.
Also, interesting to see what the Kibo share of KAT and MED will be this time next year, most likely not at the current 29.25% share of the former and purported 51% retention of the latter. So what % will we be left with?
Now it’s not always criticism just for the sake of it. LC must have seen exactly what was, or what might possibly be coming down the track with the MCPP fiasco, when Magufuli first introduced, then withdrew the PS tenders at such a late stage in the project, where prior to this it appeared that a PPA was almost done and dusted. Hence LC’s diversification, through either good judgement or good luck, where the acquisition of the other power projects was perhaps a shrewd move and may prove to be beneficial in the long run and only time will tell.
So, on hindsight I’m sure this was the right move, however I feel he just over stretched too far and took on a touch too much as they all needed working capital to develop. An additional single project might have been adequate with an attainment goal of crossing the line asap. Anyway, we are where we are and also where would we have been SP wise with just MCPP, I suppose a tad lower than 0.2p?
So what has been achieved?
Well currently the Benga project with a 300/350MW coal fired power plant and scope for 400MW is probably the best bet for Kibo to progress a Coal Power Project, albeit it has been advancing slowly, but at least it is progressing.
Elsewhere ,dismal progress, in a nut shell, slow progress at Botswana and no real news on MCPP domestic front or on the African Power Pools.
On Benga progress, they signed a non-binding PPA Term Sheet for 37% of the 100-150MW of power and a non-binding Coal Supply Agreement Term Sheet with Vale last Sept, so possibly more news to come on this aspect.
Then we had a new MoU with EDM similar to the previous one, effectively focusing on a PPA for the supply and advancement of Benga’s 100/150MW plant from its current position of development thru’ to fruition and grid supply.
Other news included a land increase for possible renewable energy /electrical storage systems, in addition they signed a Binding Term Sheet for supplying the 200MW to Baobab’s Tete Steel & Vanadium Project.
The independent Grid Impact Assessment and Integration Study on Benga has been completed, reviewed and submitted to EDM. This contributes to the Financial model and to the DFS submitted last year. The Technical and Financial Feasibility review of the Baobab Project has been finalised.
A further work task announcement was to commission an Integration study to assess the feasibility of 400 MW combined project for the Baobab Project and BPPP. I would imagine that a single power plant supplying both Baobab and EDM will be significantly cheaper than designing and constructing 2 separate plants.
All will be revealed shortly, or not so shortly!
Good for you Wimbo, but more of the same for me, if you are down 96% from 4.84p, nothing changes, you either sell and take the hit, hold, or if you have funds average down and I am unable to do the latter, so like bcl I continue to hold and the question is, will we ever see 5p again and what are folks views on what SP we will achieve? So if I could average down, would I, not too sure, as other opportunities out there. So, for now, as for the last 7 years, I remain here locked in essentially and so hoping for the best and will this happen?
These days it depends on which hat I have on, but when you look at the targets that LC has missed and the inconsistency due to changes in strategy and project disposals it is frustrating. Missing a deadline is one thing, but to be miles out and shrug it off is another, as seen in the webinar, the whole point of project planning is that it sets out the target dates based on what is known and they have to be realistic. There are umpteen Project Management techniques readily available that can be used, from Project Manager software, GANTT charts, CPA , to evaluation techniques such as PERT. If the deadlines are unrealistic and they miss it, then they should expect criticism rather than just brushing it aside willy nilly. He must know what effect it has on shareholders by now.
My recap on position and what we have without moaning much is.
Hopefully on Benga, although the ‘few weeks’ target as quoted almost 11 weeks ago has gone now and wishfully, any good news, if it were to arrive, on the Baobab PPA may add impetus to the SP and more importantly at least give a degree of encouragement that there is further progress to anticipate. However, if and when, we can finalise the second PPA agreement with EDM, that should make a world of difference and indicates the project is indeed happening. But these days there is always the LC doubt in my mind and I have asked LC a few times if we will be rewarded in our lifetime, but no answer.
The second PPA with EDM is unlikely to arrive until after NCCL have completed their PPA with EDM, which is slated for board approval in Q1 next year. So quite simply, unless we are now in front of NCCL and we get news, I see next year as possibly being more exciting as we have a vaccine if nothing else. The third PPA will follow hopefully in time, but depends on the speed that Vale develops at so this may influence the project overall.
Yes, we have KAT and the Sloane/MED IPO, followed next year with build and commissioning of up to 3 gas plants, but what will these add if they have lease payments. KAT require a DFS as I recall and the gold production has to be at least a year away and there is surely prospects of profits to be made there, unless things change of course. Also, unless he spells it out, who knows what the profit potential is with MED, but probably unlikely to be large revenue with those lease payments required over an 80-month period.
The AGM on 14 Dec is the chance for those that want shot of LC s to vote against re-election. There are plenty out there with a pile of shares that may well carry the vote. A few that I recall had 71m and 68m and I have almost a meagre 5 million that cost a packet and I would hope if LC is jettisoned, that Christion Schaffalitzky takes the helm, based on his EUA performance if nothing else. However, as LC is unlikely to go without a fight, with a juicy salary at stake, a vote against would settle matters. Perhaps the board positions should be target based, but either way LC will still have KAT and MED for his coppers. Can’t believe he will have 3 salaries, how much is that worth and of course he may not be finished yet if he spins off 2 of the power projects. Will at least one project happen with LC steering and veering?
Yes the way things have turned with Kibo, typically highlights no certs when it comes to investing in shares, especially on AIM. It seemed like a good investment opportunity in 2013 and we were progressing well until JPM opted for Hydropower from the SG dam and pulled the plug on the domestic power prospects at Mbeya where we almost had agreed a PPA . Not over of course till the fat lady sings and the big question is do we trust LC to get even a part of this over the line? Eyes on KAT!
What happened to us?
Along with the power, we were an explorer with the potential in gold and nickel with projects at Imweru, Lubando, Morogoro and Pinewood with Haneti in the background, known from past exploration to be a biggie and just needing funding as did all the others. We changed to a mining developer and then an energy company minus the commodity and en route we had a merger with MTR on Pinewood and Morogoro, ala Paul Johnson of Power Metal, which was then dropped after achieving very little with a changing plan. We had Opera, then the development of KAT. We had an assessment of a potential amalgamation of Imweru with LVG’s Imwelo, which was scrapped and eventually Imweru, through KAT was sold off for peanuts with a notional 1 million oz gold resource from the PEA. We had the potential of a $750m Haneti tucked away, then it went into KAT and thereafter Power Metal bought 35% for about $150k, a bargain, yes and a complete and total give away for what, sweeties.
What else, oh we had Sloane and Bordesley delay caper, which LC attributed to Covid-19, and was clearly not the case, otherwise it would have eventually commissioned on September and of course this is now heading for a MED IPO. Perhaps an indication that we took on too many projects. I personally feel that the reserve power market fits well alongside coal fired power as would renewables such as solar and wind, combined with electrical battery storage systems.
Now we have the power, well not the power, but the 3 coal fired power projects after LC has disposed of the rest. I signed up because we had power, gold and nickel and 142 million shares in issue.
Laguna - Afternoon hope you too are safe and well. I'm doing fine apart from Kibo and I hope we are all invited in the very near future to participate in the vaccination process. Anthony Fauci has just announced that Moderna’s vaccine has had similar effective test results and is about to be approved in the States. So I hope this rolls out quickly as well.
Currently I'm just frustrated these days and I suppose it is reflected in postings. Not surprised that JT is moving on I would do it also, but I take a hit of 96% reduction in my almost 5m shares for what they are worth. Good you have been able to reduce your average, but I’m unable to average down due to lack of funds so I have to wait till we improve, but goodness knows when and if that will happen, therefore, I have to be content with hanging on here. I thought just sell up and buy KAT but LC puts me off. So, it's the usual waiting game here. Not too sure about LC these days, but as we keep saying it only takes one project to start to progress and things can change.
Since 2013 we have had so much dilution and I have never given what we are worth much thought apart from will it ever rise to 4.84p again. If years ago we had a project potential for 20p, 40p or say 100p we have suffered massive dilution, therefore currently with almost 3.5 billion shares and most likely increasing to 5 billion shares, in simple terms it means that this would dilute the shares by a factor of 0.028 if we had 140m in issue in 2013. So, a 100p share reduces to 2.8p and a 20p share reduces to 0.56p. But how long would you have to wait for this for one project even? In addition to what extent will we suffer further dilution as we develop these projects and what effect will KAT and MED have? KAT will start to produce in about a years time assuming the funding is sorted whilst MED unlikely to add much to Kibo as they have lease payments for 80 months, so what will be left and what % of these 2 projects will Kibo end up with?
The good thing is that it appears that with NCCL is due to have board approval in Q1 next year for their PPA with EDM and if this happens perhaps we may be next in line. Who knows?
Who knows what is coming down the track news wise and perhaps one of the other projects may surprise us, but the question is will LC split the power projects up?
Baobab PPA will it arrive and will the second PPA with EDM be delivered and will a third follow quickly?
Will JPM revisit tendering for the domestic supply at MCPP?
How long will it be before we have news on the African Power Pool and MCPP?
LC stated Botswana is still active but down to a slow pace, with Benga taking the priority, this is despite the fact Bots news was due in March.
I thought the tender for the Interconnecting transmission lines was due in Feb 2021, so is there a chance we may hear something then or this year even, who knows?
If we need funding will LC sell coal from 2 of the 3 projects similar to EDL?
On the webinar, meant to add.
Overall, the presentation was fine, but it could have been shorter and therefore have more time allocated to questions. In comparison I watched Kefi’s webinar and regardless of the question this guy Harry A-Adams at least made an attempt to answer the question with no side stepping from him. Perhaps I should have sold (hard to sell when 96% down) and bought some of these, but there is still a way to go there also re financing and they also have problems across there at the moment with Tigray. He looked like he was a touch unsettled and it appears that he had injured his knee, so he did ok considering the knee.
Morming - CFox I think bcl also mooted the same. I wrote this a few days ago and thought I posted it your post reminded me about it and I wonder how many more folk think the same re separating into individual coal Companies and we are left with MCPP.
bcl - I don't know about belly up, but LC is fairly astute and I would surmise he aint no mug, so, perhaps he is more likely to spin off and split the coal fired projects, that way he has another couple of salaries in the bag on top of KAT and MED. Of course, for another path to riches, there is always the warrant route again. I suspect my 4.84p will never come again. Just thinking there were 142 million shares in issue when I first invested and now 2.221 billion with 1.275 billion warrants rising to a FD share number of 3.496 billion and then we have the headroom shares, which increases this to 5 billion, if and when, so what are we worth now and what happens after the next placing?
Anyone have a view as to where this SP will go?
The 66 million shares paid for services is almost half the shares in issue in 2013 and LC should be disclosing details of the service payment and who the recipient is, I feel. One would think, as usual, that on the one hand it is encouraging that they are receiving payment in shares, whilst on the other hand, if news is to come soon, then surely it makes sense to wait till the SP is higher so less shares are issued, so no news I think on the PPAs this year.
This I fear will always be LC Achilles heel, he has never had a strategy accompanied with foresight to ensure that if you need funds you go for it when the price is higher.
I suppose he is no different from others as there are many directors out there that are already on multiple boards and presumably this is just thru’ the web of their business connections and the ‘you can be on my board if I can be on yours’ syndrome.
Remember the link up with MTR and Paul Johnson re Pinewood and Morogoro, where we achieved nothing, before the JV was ditched and projects dropped. Well I think since then he departed in 2017 and we now have the Paul Johnson connection with Power Metal and KAT. Surely not a coincidence, or is it? The annoying thing re the MTR experience, was PJ boasted publicly about how his £150k investment made MTR £1 million.
LC is not replying now so nothing from my 22 simple questions, which is a shame. The webinar question session was disappointing as he appeared uncomfortable and unclear as to the questioning and he also side stepped the timescale issues, discounting it in a flippant manner that targets will just come and go and what sort of message does that send out to shareholder regarding the issue of any future timescale targets?
Perhaps he is looking at it and perhaps he is saying, we're next, then again maybe not. To be fair we have always been a step behind NCCL. So if NCCL's PPA with EDM has board approval in Q1 next year as I think is planned , then maybe our PPA with EDM will be next, who knows?
If they can get the Baboab PPA done this year this has to be encouraging, but will it? Surely a few weeks doesn't translate to 12 weeks!! Oh yes it does I hear you all shout. Two out of the three PPA.s this year might have made it more exciting.
Good Kibo news even at the end of the year would be good, but I have a funny feeling, again.
If they manage to approve and roll out the vaccine this is as exciting a year as it can get and even better news if we can have a therapeutic drug also, meantime we all need to keep social distancing, at least it's easy over cyber space.
Wrote this yesterday but unable to post.
SYM - Sounds a well organised place, perhaps you can have a word with the society and ask them to give LC a few tips on the production of power.
Have they a gas generation plant installed? It looks like Bordesley could do with some help as another timescale gone widely adrift and what is the real reason for the delay, we never found that out and LC never replies to questions.
Almost made Mull last year, but had to shelve the visit, but maybe next year when we kick Covid up the backside.
I didn't think you would need shops when you have the Tobermory and Whitetail distilleries!!!!
Well there has to be an AGM after we eradicate the virus threat, so if we are stagnant next year maybe a September mtg. affords an opportunity to raise some questions live. A long way off at the moment and based on the webinar it would appear to be a waste of time in LC setting targets, if he just brushes the timescales aside willy nilly. The deadlines have to be realistic based on known info and where does he get them from?
I wonder if he will meet the KAT and MED reserve power targets?
bcl - I foolishly thought in October given the timescales that we would indeed have news on the Baobab PPA, followed immediately with a nice webinar presentation and a spanking and positive Q and A session. However this fizzled out with LC shrugging off timescales in a casual manner and was another disappointment to me.
It starting to reminds me of the Fawlty Towers sketch about the war, except it’s, ‘don’t mention a few weeks.’
That's now 6 weeks so if no Baobab PPA, it looks like the 'exciting year' has moved to next year.
SYM - I read 3 articles about mini power systems, the first 2 are nuclear and the third a mini hydropower system would do you if you have running water and would make a nice wee project for you.
https://www.inquirer.com/business/mini-nuclear-reactors-renewable-small-house-cost-radiation-leak-20200903.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51233444
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/buying-and-making-electricity/microhydropower-systems
SYM - I just read about these three articles on mini power plants, the last one is hydropower and would do you if you have running water and it's not nuclear. A nice wee project for you.
https://www.inquirer.com/business/mini-nuclear-reactors-renewable-small-house-cost-radiation-leak-20200903.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51233444
https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/buying-and-making-electricity/microhydropower-systems
No chat today it would appear unless you were early.
Well all this holding on, just reminds me of the cricket commentary where the commentator said the infamous words, the Bowler is Holding, the Batsman's Willey and as I recall SGB thought it was Brian Johnson, but did he actually say it? Or as SYM would say, was it Banjo Horn Sin who said it?