RE: Sensitivity Analysis19 Jul 2023 10:55
While we're at back of a napkin calculations.
Assuming dividend funds look at EMH and decide that it can produce and sell 30k tonnes for USD $30k every year, that translates into a revenue is USD $900m per year. EMH's half of that comes to 450m. Using 30% for opex and debt service, that leaves 315m. Pay the dues and you're down to about 265m. Assuming no serious dilution due to state and EU grants and prepaid offtakes, let's assume175m shares on issue. That implies a yearly dividend of about USD $1.5 per share. So a dividend fund seeking to get a return of 7.5% a year could be comfortable paying up to USD $20 a share. Mining shares are well liked in their portfolios, so go figure.
Now I agree, we will probably be taken out before this, but how soon, how far, how suspiciously? Anyone's guess. Anything under AUD $10 is a spit in the face after DFS IMO.