Member Info for Ghia

Takenorisk - Expectation management is an Art Synairgen tend to be on the sparse side of RNS updates, rightly or wrongly.

Richard has always been reasonably accurate on his sign posting of news and has updated in timely fashion when delays have occurred.

For what its worth I think we will get an update this week and there are still 2 trading days left for this update to arrive.

By all means have a rant over the weekend if an RNS does not show up, but currently it's like waiting at the bus stop an hour ahead of schedule and complaining that the bus isn't there.

If we don't get an update in August then I would expect the next RNS to have a very good reason as to why.

Org - I’m under no illusion that these talks will take time.

Nervousness amongst retail Investors is due to their own interpretation of the statements “Summer” and “next month”.

Reality is when Richard made both of those statements he would not have known to the day when they would be in a position to release news.

I suspect we will get an update within a week to update on progress. This may be a fantastic pivotal RNS or an RNS that lays down the current timeline and future steps.

If there was a significant piece of news that was responsible for the drop it would have been RNS’d already.

For now the drop is just a nervous retail base taking some heat off. It’s fluctuating nicely about £2 rather than plummeting.

It’s also worth noting IFN-beta is still being tested on mass in the WHO solidarity trial it would have been dropped already if it was not working.

Success there is good for us.

Awonda - Nice try but Synairgen also have a patent on the specific formulation for nebulisation of IFN-Beta you can't just take the drug and nebulise it you need to create a formulation that ensures the drug reaches the target area in a stable and safe fashion.

That is not something you cook up overnight.

Dave - Exactly and unless we think the board are idiots (which they are clearly not) they will have sought guidance from qualified professionals ref IP.

Awonda - If Covid is not covered by their existing patents this would be very good news indeed for Synairgen.

They would then be able to apply for a new/extension to the patent which extends the use of the drug to a new use case which would have the effect of extending the expiry date of their IP.

The fact they have not filled this patent implies to me that they are fully covered under the existing patents.

henk12 - Whilst SNG001 to the best of my knowledge would not permanently repair damage to the lungs, it has been shown to improve lung function therefore I think there is a very strong case for it to be used to assist in fighting of viral lung infections in those with impaired lung function.

This is the whole premise of the COPD trial.

A by product of having survived a serious fight with Covid seems to be lasting damage to the lungs. COPD and related conditions are not going away any time soon.

This reminds me of the time period before results.

The end game got close and people started panicking and second guessing what had and had not been said in the RNS’s and videos.

We’ve had “Summer” in writing and “next month” in a webinar.

They translate to soon.

Last time around I stopped counting down days and accepted news would come when it was ready, it can earlier than I thought.

This time around you guessed it news will come when it is ready, However there are probably a lot more parties involved and these things take time.

We will get an update soon but be prepared for it to say discussions are still ongoing, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

I’m pretty sure someone crossed Friday

You can look at it the other way there is obviously no negative reason directly linked to the drop in share price since there was no RNS released today to that effect.

Ergo it’s just the natural fluctuations and volatility of the market.

Two things find odd about that article:

Firstly why did they feel the need to include a quote after the SNG section.

Secondly of all the quotes to choose why choose an overly negative quote from a party with a conflict of interest.

Hopefully this comment will age well they often don’t... I’m calling a TR1 tomorrow based on Fridays action.

For comparison check out the delayed trades from Friday now coming through, 660k delay volume. Lots of it at £2.50.

Rgh98 - My opinion is the company have put their reputations on the line. They are not about to jeopardise 15 years of hard work on bogus trial data.

If they say the COVID data is legit I trust them all the way.

If they say COPD data is due in August I believe them with the caveat that they justify any unintentional delays. There is also no guarantee that COPD data will be good but I personally believe there is enough indicators to suggest it is.

I sliced a few on the way up (no where near the peak) so I am comfortable to sit on my hands now.

I personally cannot risk trading this when news could land any day but I am prepared to take the risk of bad news.

Ultimately you make your own choices you have a good average so should be sitting a little more comfortable than those that bought in at £1.70 or £2

Trek - What do you make of the round 5K blocks? I know £10k+ chunks is nothing write home about but there is a fair few just before 4pm.

Will be interesting to see what trades get printed through tomorrow close of play. Nothing obvious in todays trades from a cursory glance.

In the webinar RM stated COPD next month it was July at the time.

I still think the release is linked to other ongoing negotiations so if no news lands in August I’m not going to stress too much.

Large Deals take time.

Org - IMO forgetting Covid this company was on track to release a full phase 2 COPD data set which is likely to produce some good reading.

That would have triggered a licensing deal or fundraise to tackle a larger phase 3 and the drug stood a good chance of making it to commercialisation.

COVID has been the enabler to get this drug into almost 3 times as many lungs in a phase 2 setting in a matter of months.

Significantly reducing time and cost to potentially achieving approvals of some form.

It’s no secret AZN cut a 250mil deal that they then backed out of that was for asthma.

For COPD the drug alone could be 250mil to 1bil

Now with the COVID landscape 1bil+ could be realistic.

I prefer to expect less and get more so for me I believe £5 - £6 is realistic in a takeover situation.

In a licensing situation those numbers could be higher but only in time. On announcement of a licensing deal I’d be targeting £3.50 - £4 then I’d probably reduce somewhat and tuck the rest away into the bottom drawer.

All of the above obviously is just my opinion there are many things that fill me with confidence the major one is Venrocks presence they would not arrive this late in the game if they didn’t think there was still money to be made. They will be a useful II to have around with takeover deals on the table.

Takeover or Licensing it will certainly involve large pharma.

Richard made no secret they are looking for a partner/s who will be able to look after the drug once authorised.

It is one thing to manufacture and distribute another thing to manage the product through its lifecycle.

There is likely to be other applications for the drug, which would require trials and if successful could extend patent duration.

It needs a safe pair of hands to commercialise it and SNG do not have the funding or the longevity to do so, they have earned their swansong and the recognition.

Even before the trials had completed the company was in talks ref manufacturing. They set aside an amount of cash from the placing for this very purpose.

The aim is to ensure come September onwards they or a partner were in a position to deliver millions of dosage to the lungs of patients.

They had the foresight to test 2 models of nebuliser in the trials which diversifies the supply chain.

They are one step ahead of our concerns rest assured.

Neil - The markets are currently very volatile you do not have to look far to find 30%+ swings so I can see why one might be tempted to become a full time investor.

I would however stress the current market volatility is not normal and easily lulls inexperienced investors into a false sense of security.

Open a practice account somewhere and trade as if it was for a living with the pot that you would be shaking and see how you get on.

You might prefer the day job after 6months.

A storm is coming once the economy corrects for what has happened.