Member Info for Ghia

Prof - Disagree. Maintaining the share price is important for a small cap like SNG primarily for the following reasons:

- To limit dilution when raising funds

- To ward off PE or aggressive takeovers

TFG are blocking point 2 and are also blocking point 1.

They also have the cash they need to action what they have messaged to the market.

Right now they need nothing from the market hence there is simply no need to engage. They have nothing to say when they do we will be told.

But don’t expect a pep talk or a pat on the back because they don’t need anything from you right now.

Browsing the comments I see the same points are being continually churned.

One thing that is being questioned is why have the board done nothing to protect the share price.

Let’s flip that question why do they need to protect the share price??

Simple answer is they don’t TFG are a massive blocker so there is no risk of anything hostile whilst they are around.

I expect Marsden couldn’t care less where the share price is for now.

If tfg was not around then I’d be questioning why has no one forced the takeover of the IP has potential value.

Tommy - how would those NHS stats look if everyone was puffing on SNG?

Until you can answer that the stats mean nothing other than hope.

We can’t even judge from the NHS stats the prognosis of those patients hence UNIVERSAL.

Tommy - Likewise you are telling everyone that the data does matter but missing the crucial piece which is of those numbers you quote how many can actually be targeted by SNG at a commercial price point.

One side talking down the numbers the other side talking up the numbers.

Commercially SNG does not make sense currently if it did an offer would be made.

The numbers you quote can quadruple but until they can be linked back to our drug it’s all just guess work.

Tommy - This is where the commercial starts to feed back in.

As you correctly point out everyone is working hard on the early identification of the patient population that has a real need.

Whilst it is assumed that this population makes the drug commercially viable.

Until the population is defined and sized big pharma are sitting out.

Universal hopefully goes a long way to answering this piece.

Personally this is how I see it currently.

There is a conflict of priority that the company is having to negotiate currently.

They want to design and run the perfect trials to maximise the opportunity to show the drug in a favourable light. Which makes perfect sense. To do this amongst other sources the data from universal will be crucial. Universal timing is out of their control to a large extent which is likely uncomfortable for the management team.

Conflicting with the need to run the right trial is the need to execute a trial within a specific time frame (before further funding is required). They have longer than most people are suggesting before this happens. However depending on how late the trial starts in H1, if it even does start in H1, will limit the available patient pool as the virus season diminishes into spring and summer months.

The only thing I’m confident of is they will run the right trial this time.

But that means this takes priority over the timing which has factors outside of their control. This will take time.

Tommy - If you had any conviction in what you have just wrote you would have sold out and bought back in.

Fruits - I don’t hold anything on the London stock exchange currently. It’s really underperforming.

Wish everyone well here, if the science works we will all be needing it someday.

This board seems to be frozen in time.

Same faces arguing about the same issues.

There is more to life people.

Cut each other some slack and be happier for it.

Doc83 - Just to clarify it’s not you who criticised me for selling, didn’t intend for you to take my comment as aimed at you.

Correction 66% but you get the gist.

Or in numbers.

For no additional outlay.

Your break even would drop from £1 to 60p.

At £1 you’d make 40%

At £2 you’d make 3.3x

And so on.

Easy money is made down here, hard yards are fought later.

Tommy - Are you for real you’ve just said a 40% gain in your total ownership of the company is not worth it!

I remember being goaded for selling a final chunk at 13p.

People get defensive over differing opinions.

If LTH have truly bought into the 6month + time frame for next news it makes no sense to hold.

Don’t forget a move 3 to 6p is much easier won than a move 6 to 12p

And so on and so on.

The best money is made in the first quartile.

Fruits - And you think TFG have your interests at heart? They blocked because they didn’t want to fork out to prevent their own dilution.

Tommy - With a 15% spread the price will kick around on individual trades.

All indicators that the MM have switched off and are focusing their attentions elsewhere for a while. No money to be made here for them at the moment.

Lots of the trading houses haven’t been active the past few weeks on this share.

Crl123 - The market makers don’t care what price the share is.

They simply seek out volume.

The way they achieve that is a very good indicator on the strength & security of the shareholders.

Everyone has their own opinions on the way to play this, personally I think it’s foolish to sit in this for the next few months when it’s clear what the next steps are. Could be earning an easy 5% elsewhere and get back in.

Too many people still holding hope for a reversal that won’t happen anytime soon IMO.

New data is needed.

DD - I never said that was the trial protocol.

It was Wigster that said “such patients are already known to clinicians as they are regulars each virus season - ie they are repeat visitors.”

I merely pointed out the Asthma and COPD trials had known patient pools from the outset.

The difference with the new trials is that UNIVERSAL data will hopefully ring fence discrete groups that go into more detail than just asthma and COPD, which are fairly high level categories.

I hope they won’t have a closed group of target patients and rather have an open door approach to whoever fits the bill after all that’s the whole point of the Casanova tests.

Gollumk - Really what is negative about the last post?

I was highlighting that this approach is not unfamiliar to SNG and something they have done before.

One thing I do find amusing is everyone has really bought into this stratified medicine approach as to why Sprinter failed and why the road ahead will be better.

When the reality is they just got the population size wrong on sprinter due to factors outside of their control and the trial executed too slowly again not due to their own fault.

A large BP would have smashed a larger trial got the approval and then spent the following years nailing the lucrative markets with small focused open label studies on particular sub groups.

SNG's size and lack of clout meant we narrowly missed the rush.

This next phase is not new thinking it's just the path that makes sense now to maximise chance of success. Helped by the availability of diagnostic tests.

Remember TopMD are co located do not be surprised if they pop up in the story soon.

Wigster77 - This also mirrors the Asthma Study and COPD study which had trial populations hand picked in advance.

The only downside of this approach is you are waiting for the repeat visitors to turn up. Which if you've got your data right they have a high chance of doing but timing is not guaranteed.

Hopefully they will also include people that meet criteria but not already known to clinicians.