Member Info for Ghia

Forgot the link

https://www.imi.europa.eu/news-events/press-releases/imi-announces-covid-projects-boosts-funding-pot-eur-72-million

What’s interesting here is that we would have been a better fit for the “CARE” arm of this funding.

I wonder what we are adding to the “Dragon” consortium maybe access to our library of data in conjunction with Southampton University.

Just spoke to a fantastic friend who's day job is dealing with interferons and I didn't even know!! They pointed me in the direction of this excellent paper not sure if it's been posted before.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302059

After a lengthy chat the outcome was "Keep your Shares or Buy More"

Note to self limit word count... sorry all for the lengthy posts

Nolupus - Ultimately that depends on how intrinsically linked the result of this trial is to the COPD trial.

If failure for C19 also implies failure for COPD we are relying on LOXL2 revenues you will be seeing sub 10p prices.

If failure for C19 with no link to COPD I think it will settle around 20p

If Non-conclusive but trial extension to gather further data or maybe switch focus to at home probably settle around 30p after an initial sell off.

For what it's worth I think the trial has been designed in a way to give us the best possible chance of forming some sort of positive outcome, so I think we will be talking about degrees of efficacy rather than the greyness of inconclusiveness.

Nolupus - It sounds like you are aware of the risks here and have a strategy.

You are protecting yourself from significant losses whilst sacrificing some of the gains, no one can argue against that.

Obviously the risk you take is that on good news this goes ballistic however usually after every big spike there is a bit of a breather which provides a secondary entry point.

I wonder how many have invested big expecting a steady climb towards results and had planned to take some heat off closer to D-Day?

Again not a bad strategy but you run the risk that D-Day arrives without the steady climb in anticipation perhaps due to a "distressed seller".

Personally on top of my core holding I've been adding a % per week whilst we stay below 60p, I can stomach to loose all of the core holding and the extra % is money I would have normally spent down the pub or in car fuel etc so again it's money I can loose.

I'm riding this out till the end or £5 if it gets there.

DubleD - The bar has been set very low by Gilead, as long as we don't kill more people than cure we're onto a winner!!! Joking Aside.

The outcome of the trial will be success if it permits use to do any and all of the following:
- Roll out to a larger more expansive Phase 3 Study
- Apply and receive emergency use status for North America and potentially other countries
- Realise licensing agreements with large pharma

The required efficacy result to achieve the above is anyone's guess if we can prove that we can reduce recovery times by even a couple of days I think that will be viewed as excellent.

Nolupus - You might be right but you have to let people have a little bit of excitement from time to time otherwise things get very boring. Let peoples £'s predications wash over you and you will feel better for it and they will be less hostile. If we crash out of the trial and down to pennies by all means say I told you so but if you are a genuine long term holder I think you will even be disappointed that this journey has not been fruitful. No scientist likes to see problems unsolved, each failure is a chance to learn and one step closer to success.

I think this site would benefit greatly from distinct areas to post research and areas for chit chat and theorising.

Both have their place.

Nolupus - I think we have found something at least that we agree on!

If successful in the Phase 2 clinical trial, this will be rolled out to a much larger Phase 3 study.

I don't think that prevents us from applying for emergency use status in certain countries for example remdesivir could become the current standard of care treatment in the US.

I think we would be foolish not to keep the momentum going and capitalise on the volume of potential trial patients around currently. A global Phase 3 trial would be a great achievement.

It is feasible that this could become a billion £ drug but that doesn't happen over night.

VanV - They are all very astute questions that you raise. I will however decline your offer only because I am not currently invested in the share you mention. So whilst I follow their movements I don't want to be accused of engineering myself an entry point however ridiculous that notion might be. I'll join the party there at some point.

Likewise I have little further to add to the conversation here I've said my piece and will continue to hold a modest amount not ruling out adding more at some point but equally not expecting fireworks from here on out.

WL1516 - It's up to everyone to individually assess risks 30% might be a bit high in some peoples minds, i'm not going to argue either way on that. It is however naive of some here to think there are no risks.

I'm not sure I've seen this link posted here might be of interest to some.
https://www.imi.europa.eu/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/reference-documents/IMI_COVIDprojects_Factsheet_20200512.pdf

Just one example of how huge huge sums of money are being invested into solving this pandemic. "Decision", "KRONO" and "RAPID-COVID" are all risk factors to NCYT.

From what I've read we are not involved in this body of research.

We have first mover advantage and are reaping the rewards currently but the playing field is changing rapidly.

flyingmachine - Agreed. Those patient are likely to see value increase as the story unfolds. Risk reduces as more positive news is released.

Harts - Equally you cannot value NCYT with a multiple P/E since this rich vein of revenue will inevitably dry up at some point.

It's a difficult one to price currently i'm just stating what I perceive the market to be thinking.

GSK and AZN would be my safe haven AZN has had a stonking run recently for a blue chip.

Mr Market has probably taken your 940mil figure knocked 30% off for risk management leaving 658mil then 50% profit leaving 329mil.

So potentially 20% undervalued which doesn't seem too far from reality looking at the share price.

Safe to assume trial has not finished yet, confident we will recieve an RNS once the "LVLS" has been hit. Could be as early as next week, but more likely week after next.

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001023-14/GB

"E.8.8
Definition of the end of the trial and justification where it is not the last visit of the last subject undergoing the trial
LVLS"

Nolupus - Since you are up to speed on interferons more so than most here care to share any musings on the similarities or differences of between IFN b-1a and IFN a-2b.

I believe these are the two IFN's being used by Synairgen and Betterlife.

Nolupus - People get very defensive when money is involved, I personally believe you can learn a lot from the people that ask the difficult questions that you may not yet have the answers too. Equally without facial expressions and body language tone of text can come across excessively negative or positive when it really isn't intended that way.

I'll keep reading on interferons but it's slow progress, one misplaced symbol and the entire context changes.

Nolupus - I was wondering if there was a connection between your name and your knowledge of lupus related matters.

Does the dPCR use the same end machine in the lab if yes then I see labs switching orders from conventional to dPCR to up throughput in the lab.

So whilst gaining on dPCR sales might see a tail of in the standard test format.

One would hope the dPCR is at least the same price if not more expensive.