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The Interims caused me to revisit this, particularly the para on the bid. As the "offer" talked of a mix of cash and paper, I'd expect that if this is to come to anything we would see the Government of Cameroon withdraw its infrastructure agreement with Sundance/Hanlong first. That's either after or just before Sundance ditches Hanlong. The other indicator might be this SP rising so that less paper is needed when an offer is made.

The iron is still in the fire. http://www.investegate.co.uk/intl-mining---38--infras--imic-/rns/interim-results/201303280701000715B/ "Afferro has a number of iron ore projects in Cameroon, notably its 100%-owned flagship asset, the Nkout Iron Project, located at the heart of a rapidly emerging iron ore district in the south of Cameroon. This iron ore district creates the opportunity for an infrastructure solution provided by IMIC and AIOG through best-of-breed Chinese partners in construction, banking and iron ore offtake. We appointed Bank of America Merrill Lynch in the fourth quarter of 2012 to advise us on a possible offer for the entire share capital of Afferro, which we believe has an attractive asset in the Nkout iron ore project. We are currently completing due diligence and will provide a further update to the market in due course."

While waiting for news on AFF I was struck once more by the parallels with Guinea. Today the BZM rns has some interesting bits that will strike a chord here. http://www.investegate.co.uk/bellzone-mining-plc--bzm-/rns/company-update-and-for-cariah-jv-guidance/201303270700159568A/

The deal isn't dead but the curious are already gathering in expectation of the reading of the will, in my opinion anyway. The RNS is as clear a one as you could ever hope to read and puts most AIM companies to shame as an example of transparency in practice. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130320/pdf/42dsxrqmqhdlql.pdf As for how long it would take to negotiate a replacement deal, it rather depends on how much preliminary work any interested parties have already put into preparation. That's why I rather hope that Mr Kane (he of AIOG, AFF and now IMIC fame) has Plan B already drafted and signature ready.

I agree regarding China being involved whatever the outcome. AIOG, for example, has a relationship with a group of Chinese companies and offers a model from Guinea and Liberia that the Govt of Cameroon might find attractive. As for infrastructure, rail is indeed the main ingredient but Sundance also has first refusal on operating the port once built, according to my understanding of the Convention anyway.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130320/pdf/42dsxrqmqhdlql.pdf This looks like the stitching is coming apart on the Sundance led infrastructure solution for Cameroon. With Hanlong out of the way the pressure would be on for the Cameroon Government to withdraw from the infrastructure part of the agreement struck late last year with Sundance and Hanlong, not with Glencore or anyone else. One might imagine that this is exactly what is being orchestrated in Beijing in order to take Hanlong out of the equation and perhaps replace Hanlong by AIOG, with better terms for all concerned. This includes AFF since it would be better if a serious and capable organisation were at the helm of the infrastructure development rather than one owned by an underfunded adventurer undergoing a possible criminal investigation.

Glencore interest in the area can't itself a bad thing, in fact I take confidence from it. The source talks of this as a project level investment not a takeover so, if true, Glencore recognises the potential of the Hanlong deal. Personally, I would like to see IMIC (which is available to the PI to invest in) and its strategic partners (AIOG plus the Chinese group of companies) step in if Hanlong fails to meet this month's deadline. This looks like an each way bet at the moment.

Sundance Resources (SDL.AU) has held talks with parties including Glencore International PLC (GLEN.LN) about the sale of a stake in its flagship Mbalam iron ore project, a person familiar with the matter said Tuesday. The talks are taking place amid worries that China's Hanlong Mining may fail to complete its 1.38 billion Australian dollar (US$1.4 billion) takeover of Sundance, which is being advised by UBS AG. It wouldn't require parties to acquire any equity in Australia-listed Sundance, the person said. http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/03/18/sundance-resources-has-talked-with-parties-including-glencore-source/

The funding comes from dilution last year and from a part drawn loan facility. The extra funding needed to secure an AFF T/O might be more of the same. In fact the mix of cash and paper in the illustrative offer suggests as much. Overall, I think we can see a pattern is developing in West Africa, pushed by AIOG, of a strategic approach to infrastructure and raw materials that is designed to appeal to the governments of less developed West African countries such as Guinea, Liberia and Cameroon. Interesting, if slow moving, times particularly for Cameroon (with some quite good news from WAM and BowLeven this week)

Small time front men they may be but for who and for how long? AIOG have a holding in IMIC but IMIC has the right to buy AIOG in 2017. AIOG is about using african political influence on behalf of someone else. China Railway Materials (iron ore marketers) have said they will buy into IMIC at the next fund raising just as they have in Sierra Leone with African Minerals (with off-take). All IMIC needs is an iron ore mine somewhere to set it on the path to rapid growth. It may be too early to write it of yet.

I imagine it has rather more to do with there being a difference between the two total figures than an informal indicator of behind the scenes negotiation. Either the second is a correction of the first or there has actually been a very slight change in the number in issue.

And yet infrastructure solutions proposed by Jindal did not favour the construction of a railway line: http://www.lanouvelleexpression.info/economie/11114.html

An RNS presented in a more muted style than recently, perhaps because the % are rather muted too?

The IMIC RNS is relevant here. http://www.investegate.co.uk/intl-mining-38-infras-%28imic%29/rns/aiog-signs-letter-of-intent-with-liberia/201302270700067355Y/ Of particular interest is the final para: AIOG's planned activities in Liberia are also expected to complement, and add further momentum to, the other initiatives of AIOG and its London AIM-listed strategic partner International Mining Infrastructure Corporation plc, in the West and Central Africa region, including a previously-announced major iron ore infrastructure project in Guinea and an asset-acquisition strategy in Cameroon.

This and the previous RNS read to me like the desperate acts of a Company under threat of takeover, desperate to push out any sort of good news to help keep its end (and sp) up. This one is almost meaningless in so far as the good words about working together are undermined by non-committal and non-exclusivity statements. So, that slightly positive market sp response might well not be not so much about what is said but about what is not said by this RNS.

The complete lack of transparency has something to do with it. Is there an offer on the table or isn't there? What about the cleverness of using an ex-African politician on your BOD to smooth your dealings only to have him poached by one of your strategic investors who then "hints" at a takeover? Most of all though, Guinea showed the way this is likely to go but there is nothing predictable about the way this one will be stitched up either. No wonder the market is discounted for risk with all this going on out of its sight. Regards

A quick visit to the WAFM BB tells it all, really, just as you say.

Positive news from another Cameroon iron ore (BIF/DSO get a mention) activity. http://www.investegate.co.uk/west-african-mineral-%28wafm%29/rns/gravity-survey-indicates-large-scale-anomalies/201302130700117497X/

"HE on-again, off-again $1.4 billion takeover bid for Sundance Resources has hit a fresh delay. Beijing has ordered suitor Hanlong Group to line up a Chinese partner to help develop the Mbalam iron ore project in west Africa before final approval can be sewn up. Sundance reported to the Australian stock exchange on Thursday that the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission has extended provisional approval for Hanlong's acquisition by six months until July 30. In September 2010, Sundance Resources signed a memorandum of understanding with CRCC China-Africa Construction, which outlined construction plans for a 490-kilometre railway linking the planned iron ore mines to a proposed port. Shares in Sundance Resources are in a trading halt, last trading at 34, a significant discount to the 45 offer price."

It's clear that the RNS' on 30 Jan and 4 Feb were published as a pre-emptive address to the concerns raised in the Jindal excuse for withdrawing/bitter recriminations for being rejected. As for what now, I was thinking more about the next shots in the information campaign from AFF and IMIC rather pricing and value. In that regard, I'm wholeheartedly with you in your conclusion (despite your little personal dig).