Member Info for GheeBhee

Since I believe the deal has been done I'm not that concerned about AFF cash burn so I really don't know the answer to your question.

CAM IRON (90%) owned by Sundance, has less than 18 months to meet the conditions of the Mbalm Convention, which includes starting work not finishing it. The Convention covers the rail corridor and iron ore port. Sundance has two options to fund this (their words not mine because they are not mutually exclusive): Find a partner and/or get someone else to take on the corridor and port. One way or the other there won't be a port to export through for at least 3 and probably five years, road or no road, in my opinion. It would help though for there to be a credible funding path in place. Step forward a SPV involving AIOG but I expect it only but shortly after the AFF RTO.

"All in all, the metallurgical test results are positive as they point to the project’s strong economics, which, coupled with Ntem’s favourable location (just 80km from the deep water port near Kribi), increases its chances of being brought into production. Afferro confirmed it is on track to complete a maiden NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate and an infrastructure scoping study at Ntem in Q213. This, as well as the expectation of the potential offer from IMIC and a possible cooperation agreement with POSCO, should be supportive of the stock, which continues to trade at an undemanding EV/resource multiple of just US$0.03/t." http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/company/Afferro-Mining

The last time this "done and dusted" issue came up I posted the following summary. "I've seen not a single indicator of a counter bid and plenty of signs that the IMIC bid is as good as sealed. Look at the audience conditioning interview with AFF's CEO, look at the report suggesting that Sundance is looking to be shut of the national infrastructure funding burden and read carefully the IMIC 17 Apr RNS - the bit about infrastructure being sorted in particular. That date is significant too, being just a couple of days after the President signed off on the foreign investment decree which itself followed the agreement with Canada over protecting foreign investments, "Quelle coïncidence !". The season for M&A is well and truly open (see Range and International Petroleum) and IMIC and AFF are next. All in my opinion of course but not long to wait before we find out." You can also add the close relationship between the present AFF Directors and the IMIC/AIOG CEO and Chairman. As regards POSCO there is nothing stopping a joint venture going ahead alongside a merger/RTO.

All I'm saying is that there have been enough indicators to suggest that it has already been agreed with IMIC that the merger/RTO will be recommended to the AFF shareholders by the AFF Board. Others clearly disagree but perhaps many more have not been paying the same close attention that I have.

I could revisit the indicators as to why I think this is a done deal already but suffice to observe that the contrast between the wooing by Jindal and that by IMIC is startling. Your question simply points to why this merger is going to be endorsed by the board and the major shareholder, in my opinion.

The iron ore port isn't planned to open in the middle of next year and if it ever was then the collapse of the Sundance/ Hanlong deal has now terminally derailed the schedule. Just as well you are not planning on submitting an invoice for that back of a postcard scoping study of yours. (I think that last sentence warrants a lol in the on-line vernacular).

http://www.directorstalk.com/fox-davies-reviews-miners-today-including-aff-avm-bod-rrs-snrp-stgr-tstr-zox/ "Whilst discussions with IMIC are on-going, the Company continues with its’ develop(ment) work. These latest results are positive, but as with all bull (sic, I hope they mean bulk!) commodities infrastructure is key and we await the Infrastructure scoping study which is looking at the 80km road haulage to the planned port which will significantly reduce the projects capex requirements and increase the projects chances of actually going into production."

Specificity and news to reinforce the ups1de it is then.

Having done the £1 to death, what about an attempt at £1.40? Here goes and for fun only, of course. The current fair price for an IMIC share is given by themselves as 20p. That means seven new AFF for one old AFF and one new AFF for one old IMIC share. That's a total of 795.33m New AFF Shares for a combined current Market Capitalisation of £86.44m, giving an estimated New AFF share value of 10.86p. Seven of those makes 76p, which is a premium of but 7p on the current price. Now, if IMIC (and their market makers) think AFF is actually worth £1.40 a share (and therefore double the current Market Capitalisation) it's probably because they know something we don't and may well be looking to bring in New AFF at 20p supported by a sharing of the good news. Seven of those makes £1.40 of course. All it will take is integrity on their part and trust by those who individually make the share swap their choice. After that it's up to market forces. Remember this is only for fun while we wait confirmation that IMIC can actually gather in enough 80ps to buy us off.

Mark, i should also add that for the time being there may a number of retail investors waiting for the share price to fall further at risk of missing an early announcement or upward sentiment. I don't like this sort of comment generally but I can't help noticing that the computer generated apportionment of trades on LSE currently favours marking buys as sells, so that expectation may be being fed currently.

Mark, I take this from the 17 Apr RNS: "The convertible loan notes will carry a coupon of 8%, rolled up and paid at the end of the 24 month duration of the loan notes or on conversion into IMIC shares." to mean that the conversion will be possible at any time. The scepticism reflected in the current price might be from one or more of the following perceptions (none of which I personally subscribe to): IMIC are not serious people and will not be able to raise the funds, IMIC are using this as smoke to cover a bid for another miner (Sundance, probably) and nothing will come of the AFF RTO. AFF BOD will reject the offer or seek to have it defeated at any emergency meeting called by IMIC and concert party shareholders. POSUC aren't serious people and will not join a JV (look at their abandonment of Legend to see how fickle they are). There is no cash wielding white knight on the way (hold on, that one I do agree with). Receipt of confirmation of funding availability is only the first step but, from that leaked broker's note, we know IMIC want this agreed by 18 July 2013. So, I hope someone has booked a room for that Emergency General Meeting in early June.

A short interview with WAFM CEO. Note at almost the end he says that the Kribi port development is visible from the air. He is, of course, talking about the container port to the north of the complex. This is an enabling first step for economically bringing stuff in rather than taking ore out but one has to start somewhere. http://www.brrmedia.com/event/111517/anton-mauve-managing-director

This short article neatly sums up the main political risk to stability in Cameroon and what is being done to mitigate it. http://www.iol.co.za/news/africa/ruling-party-sweeps-cameroon-elections-1.1508316#.UYDRe2dD-BE Why, after 17 years, should there be a Senate established in April 2013, I wonder. That's the same April 2013 when a foreign investment stability law was passed and just a month after Canada and Cameroon agreed a foreign investment protection agreement. Much closer to home, this desire to avoid unnecessary shocks is also reflected in the recent RNS announcement that AFF will be introducing a policy of no-surprises Director nominations. One might think that there is indeed a policy of stabilisation designed to prepare the ground for the implementation of Mogo's much advertised Chinese backed long term Master Plan.

Over at WAMF Rosy Mining Ltd have joined the party via the off-market route but the question is who's behind Rosy Mining Limited?

http://www.sundanceresources.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/2581-52033780/QuarterlyActivitiesReport and some comment http://www.directorstalk.com/resource-specialist-sp-angel-comment-on-sundance-resources-sdl/

How about this for a tactical plan. Take the 80p and the 20p bonus paper (having averaged down if necessary to below 80p while you can). When the 80p payment (which you bought into at a discount) hits your account consider buying into IMIC at the new (presumably) cheaper price ready for the bounce back/gradual rise that will follow the probable release of held back news. When the IMIC price stabilises, convert the 20p (which cost you nothing) into IMIC shares and either sell or hold according to taste at the time. You might wish you'd gone for £1.40 if the news flow is immediate and there is no post re listing drop but you would have grabbed something positive while you could as per your SKR lesson learnt. This is not advice, just my identification of an alternative approach and not something I will be doing.

1. Exposure to short term manipulation of Share Price (IMIC low until decision, high on conversion day, rapid fall on readmission). 2. Exposure to a possible decline in China's rate of industrial development while the West booms. 3. Monopsonist reduction of profitability options for the Board. 4. Upsetting of mike29 and anyone else hoping for a cash rich white knight (only joking) 5. Not recognising when to get out.

Changes at the top in WAFM. Perhaps the departing Director/Shareholder didn't like the way things were shaping up regarding their part in the Master Plan? http://www.investegate.co.uk/west-african-mineral--wafm-/rns/director-dealings-and-board-change/201304300700455364D/

As AFF CEO himself said, the IMIC proposal may result in one or two of the AFF Directors losing their seat on the Board. As they have other seats on other Boards I don't think we need feel too sorry for them; they will no doubt be well compensated. As for selling out for a pound, that only applies to those who take that option. Others may take £1.20 and others will stay and hope to be part of a bigger story. Remember too that 85% of the shares are held by institutional investors who don't tend to post on BBs, not even iii. Their views may well be different to our personal views and will certainly be of much more consequence. Interesting times!