Member Info for GheeBhee

"Now, sources within Cameroon are saying that a very large group, with a railway business attached, is likely to take the place of Hanlong - possibly quite soon" China Railway Group (‘CREC’) is the third largest civil construction enterprise in the world and the largest Asian and Chinese railway, road and tunnel construction contractors. Now that's pretty large in itself. Oh, and it's part of the AIOG led Group, as is IMIC. On top of that CREC is already operating in Cameroon. http://www.businessincameroon.com/transports/2304-4032-china-railway-engineering-group-co-signs-renovation-works-contract-for-the-175-km-batschenga-ka-a-railway There could be a seriously strategic situation developing here and AFF shareholders still have the possibility of joining while its all close to ground level. In my personal opinion, of course.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/04/25/posco-results-idINDEE93O07020130425

I'd previously said that a project level investment by POSCO wasn't incompatible with the offer from IMIC. As an additional indicator, it's worth noting that POSCO has ongoing interests in China. http://www.posco.com/homepage/docs/eng2/jsp/prcenter/news/s91c1010025v.jsp If there is a China backed master plan involving IMIC/AIOG, that's a powerful incentive for POSCO not to counter bid. On the contrary, it's a good reason to expect the MOU Joint Venture to go ahead in parallel with the Reverse Takeover. I can just imagine this development being released as good news designed to help stop the new entity's share price falling on re-admission to the markets, perhaps together with an arrangement with CAM IRON over strategic rail and port construction primacy.

As a bit of light relief to pass the time, with the benefit of hindsight have a look back to an interview given by the CEO in December 2012. http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/1540/afferro-mining-ceo-says-partnership-talks-making-excellent-progress-1540.html Which partnership talks did he have in mind, I wonder.

That should of course begin "You ask if I think IMIC shares are worth having."

You as if I think IMIC shares are worth having. I've said before that I think they are but you need to make up your own mind. You might want to take the 80p as advised by Share Magazine, wait a while then pick your moment, sell and convert to cash as quickly as possible. Who cares whether IMIC shares are worth holding if that's the strategy? On the other hand, if you acknowledge that AFF have assets in the ground but no funding and IMIC have no assets but plenty of funding (or backers at least) then you might think that bringing the two together produces more value than the sum of the parts. I do expect that will be the conclusion of the AFF Board and the majority shareholders.

My understanding is based on this from 17 Apr RNS: "80p in cash plus a CONVERTIBLE loan note of 20p, making a total of 100p for each Afferro share. The cash portion in the above options will be subject to a limit of US$100 million. The CONVERTIBLE loan notes will carry a coupon of 8%, rolled up and paid at the end of the 24 month duration of the loan notes or on CONVERSION into IMIC shares." As for who is taking who over, I characterise this as a merger and remind you of this: http://minesite.com/news/it-certainly-wont-be-like-the-sundance-saga-says-afferros-luis-da-silva-as-imic-sets-the-clock-ticking-on-a-deal "One thing he is pretty sure of, though, is that not much will change on the ground. “It’s a bolt-on acquisition for IMIC”, he says. “It’s absolutely bolt-on. The office, team, and management in-country all stays the same.”

As AFF CEO has said "Given that we’re Canadian..." and that this is a Reverse Takeover then, if successful, the new issuing entity will also be Canadian, I suppose. That's why this link might be of interest. http://www.international.gc.ca/media_commerce/comm/news-communiques/2013/03/04a.aspx "Minister Fast made the announcement at the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum Franco-Mine event on the margins of the PDAC convention." People do like to have news to release at Conferences so mark this one in your diary for the end of May. http://www.cim.org/en/News-and-Events/Events/EventsList/2013/5/CIMEC2013CameroonInternationalMiningConferenceExhibition Note that this is a link from the CIM website.

I'm not sure that you really appreciate just how close AIOG (a private company) already is with IMIC (a public company) such that they may as well be one company for all but legal purposes. See http://www.imicplc.com/media/pdf/20120402_IMIC_AIOGRA_RNS_FINAL.pdf Flexibility and a mix of both publicity and privacy result from this arrangement, making it difficult to put a value on the combined group, even without trying to estimate the value of their named Chinese State owned partners. In summary, no need for an AIOG/IMIC takeover to underwrite this debt, not least because if all goes to plan most people will convert to IMIC shares long before the 2 years is up.

I don't give financial advice but if I were you I'd be planning to take the 80p when offered then wait a short while for the diluted IMIC sp to stabilise (at any price) before converting and selling my shares. Play it right and I'd make 9p on my original investment or even more because I would take the opportunity on Monday to average down while the AFF share price remains at a discount to 80p. All this on the assumption that IMIC formalises and funds its bid, that the Board recommends acceptance and that the shareholders vote to accept it, of course.

Step forward Posco, Mark has a plan! It's a shame that the odds of it happening are probably nil. I've seen not a single indicator of a counter bid and plenty of signs that the IMIC bid is as good as sealed. Look at the audience conditioning interview with Aff's CEO, look at the report suggesting that Sundance is looking to be shut of the national infrastructure funding burden and read carefully the IMIC 17 Apr RNS - the bit about infrastructure being sorted in particular. That date is significant too, being just a couple of days after the President signed off on the foreign investment decree which itself followed the agreement with Canada over protecting foreign investments, "Quelle coïncidence !". The season for M&A is well and truly open (see Range and International Petroleum) and IMIC and AFF are next. All in my opinion of course but not long to wait before we find out.

Leaked story: http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BZM.L&display=discussion&id=10564989&action=detail Follow up broker report:http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/56252/imic-deal-with-aiog-could-shape-west-africas-nascent-iron-ore-industry-says-broker-56252.html

Yes to both of you. Meanwhile: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/56223/west-african-minerals-boosted-by-cameroon-reports-56223.html

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/56223/west-african-minerals-boosted-by-cameroon-reports-56223.html That is down to IMIC/AIOG seizing the infrastructure element perhaps.

The risk averse would take the 80p cash plus 20p convertible note with a view to watching the inevitable IMIC share price fall and converting at the appropriate time. That there is now an opportunity to buy at sub 70p and get an almost immediate 80p cashback (remember the July target for the first post takeover action?) is going to dawn on people the more there are articles like this one on the web.

"Time to decide on Afferro’s future - Shareholders in the iron ore miner need to study the different options presented in a likely takeover deal" http://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/decision-time-for-afferro#.UXjU-2eRebo

The recent legislation may be trying to address concerns like these: http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=f1baf934-371d-42d3-827a-d06e95900c1e "Despite the attractive factors, poor infrastructure and a challenging business environment hamper the mining sector. Moreover, due to the remote location of the majority of the country’s projects, the lack of water, energy, transport and telecommunication infrastructures is generally seen as a major hurdle for mining investors. However, development of infrastructures and the mining sector has now become one of the priorities of the Government, as the country strives to reach key economic goals by 2035. The business environment must also be improved, as investors still experience administrative inefficiency and a number of burdensome and time consuming procedures and formalities. Cameroon was only ranked 161th in the 2013 “Doing Business” report of the World Bank (IFC). Finally, it should be noted that standard taxes and royalties remain quite high compared to other West African countries (eg. corporate income tax of 38.5%, VAT of 19.25%, withholding tax of 16.5%, royalties ranging from 2% to 8% etc)."

By coincidence, no doubt. http://allafrica.com/stories/201304240882.html

http://www.steelfirst.com/Article/3193549/News/Sundance-still-pinning-hopes-on-China-for-Hanlong-replacement?WT.mc_id=TwNN

A positive spin on the IMIC proposal as regards the future for Sundance. http://www.steelfirst.com/Article/3193549/News/Sundance-still-pinning-hopes-on-China-for-Hanlong-replacement?WT.mc_id=TwNN Note particularly: "The Australian junior is now also considering a low-capital strategy whereby an infrastructure provider supplies the port and railway for a tariff payment, backed by a guaranteed take-or-pay offtake contract with a Chinese, or non-Chinese, third party. Gaining access to the seaborne market is key to Mbalam’s commercial success. London-based International Mining & Infrastructure Corp (IMIC) proposed a takeover of fellow junior Afferro Mining on April 17, and signed new co-operation agreements with Chinese state-owned infrastructure and trading companies in relation to the potential acquisition. Were IMIC’s proposal to go ahead, it could be a “potential game-changer” for Sundance by lowering capital costs on infrastructure for Mbalam, GMP Securities said in a note to investors on April 17. “This would make Sundance’s project significantly more attractive to potential acquirers,” it said. “[And we] believe that the presence of Chinese companies in the agreements to develop Nkout does not preclude a Chinese deal with Sundance.”