Member Info for GheeBhee

You can say what you like about the IMIC AFF affair but for me the most positive thing about it is that the Board, Management and representatives of significant holders of AFF will have been briefed on the rail and port plans of IMIC. A positive announcement of an advance on the path to the un-stranding of Mbalam and points west can't be far away and will do wonders both here and at Sundance.

IMIC? Absolutely but I got out on personal integrity grounds. Any day soon they are going to announce they have the lead on the port and the railway but watch out for the dilution they have already signalled. CIMEX on 29 May could be significant. I'm not puffing WAFM but they have a cleaner feel, are more liquid and will benefit greatly from a rail/port announcement too. They are also looking at the advantages of a listing in Canada, in my opinion. That's enough on WAFM.

I've sold out all but a few shares which I'm keeping for curiosity and as a ticket for the AGM/SM/GM if I'm in town that day. Best of luck for the future. My interest is now in WAFM.

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply it would help ordinary AFF shareholders in the short term, unless they perhaps move over to WAFM in anticipation. I'm suggesting that if the good news comes before the vote, the frustration and anger of the impotent minority (non-institutional, non-Directors that is) will be a wonder to witness. The same pent up "good news" is what will prevent POSCO and Jindal making a bid against this "done deal" in my opinion. Clearly, this deal is part of a bigger plan by IMIC Inc -AIOG Ltd which will also help Sundance and others if they pull it off. It might even help ordinary Cameroon citizens. That might still include a JV with POSCO to give a double dose of good news for IMIC Inc shareholders and Directors anyway.

Straight forward, really. The three options are off the table and there is now only one way forward. 80p Cash plus 40p promise and no choice (except for it to be voted on, obviously).

Time will indeed tell. I do think, though, that the "good news" isn't over yet. I'm confident that IMIC will shortly announce it is taking over the Rail/Port point from Sundance (the Sundance share fall and WAFM share rise support this interpretation). If that is before the AFF RTO is voted on then things will get very interesting.

Perhaps the market is suspicious of this deal, which shows signs of being negotiated for the benefit of a subset of shareholders in AFF. That subset are people and institutions who had and have a legal but iffy foot in both camps already. In my opinion and with no accusations of wrongdoing of course.

No one can believe that the AFF Board have negotiated a worse offer than the ones that were publicly announced (17 Apr).

I'm sure you mean the ones after mine! I made the mistake of posting on another board and now I'm being stalked by a bunny boiler. That will teach me.

"The government is putting measures in place to ensure transparency and avoid conflicts in the sector by striving to become an EITI compliant country by August 2013" http://bongben.wordpress.com/2013/05/08/cameroons-mining-sector-yet-to-contribute-to-development/ EITI http://eiti.org/ Will M. Gueant be representing IMIC at the conference in Sydney?

Mark, My guess is there will be an announcement on Monday, which is a holiday in Canada and Cameroon but not in UK, but only that the rail/port task has been negotiated away from Sundance. Look at WAFMs share price this afternoon for support to that idea. 29 May is looking favourite for the initial news release but will it be a COB rather than an RTO? After all, it could be said that this whole IMIC offer was a mistake of judgement made all the more obviously so by the mistimed announcement of the appointment of a Special Adviser.

In March Cameroon and Canada came to an agreement to protect investment by Canadian companies in Cameroon. This is probably a follow up. A couple of interesting points: mining businesses are included and they are visiting Douale and Kribi, both possible exit points for iron ore. It wouldn't be too surprising to learn that some of those attending will be staying in Cameroon to attend the mining Conference on 29 May, making it all worthwhile. http://www.businessincameroon.com/investment/1405-4065-20-canadian-person-delegation-scouts-visit-cameroon-in-may

IMIC gets a brief factual mention at the end: http://lajeunepolitique.com/2013/05/14/gueant-faces-corruption-allegations-from-potential-money-laundering/

20 May is Cameroon National Day. Politicians everywhere do like to make good news announcements on National Days. On 29 May there is the 1st ever Cameroon Iron Ore Conference and Exhibition, held under the grand patronage of the President and sponsored by Afferro and Sundance among others. Politicians and business people do like to make newsworthy announcements at Conferences too, particularly when they're paying for them. http://www.cimec2013.com/?page_id=23

I'm not sure you've quite got the picture I'm trying to paint. When IMIC merges with AFF (either as a COB or RTO under POLICY 5.2 TSXV CHANGES OF BUSINESS AND REVERSE TAKEOVER Shttp://www.tmx.com/en/pdf/Policy5-2.pdf ) the new IMIC-AIOG post infrastructure novation from Sundance, with its resource in the ground, its contacts, its debt lines and its Chinese partners is heading for a main market listing somewhere eventually in my opinion. Synergy, that's the point. Coming from both sides it creates more wealth than the sum of the parts and they are considerable in this case, even if only a few of us currently recognise it (the indicators are all out there). The good news is that, in my opinion (for how can I possibly know), new IMIC will want you to have money rather than shares for reasons relating to concentration prior to a fund raising from the market at a higher price. It just might not be coming the way it currently looks to be coming or at the IMIC indicative amounts. Anyway, Shares Magazine said take the 80+20 because it's likely to be offered and who am I to argue with them? Just make sure your average is under 80p and then you can't lose anything except short term liquidity (if they're right).

That raises the interesting question of what's in it for the IMIC shareholder. It must be something to do with their long term investing for value over our short term trading for profit. Whereas 70% of IMIC is not in public hands (as per their website) and 55m of their 60m share issue are in just 9 hands, no one has more than 10% of AFF. The asymmetry of these two companies in so many respects is what makes this all so interesting and the synergy resulting from the merger so exciting. Hopefully we can all benefit, particularly the ordinary citizens of Cameroon, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea.

I thought it might be interesting to compare the size of the Afferro, Aureus and IMIC Boards. Afferro has four, Aureus has 6 (including the Chair and CEO from Afferro) and IMIC has 6 plus an Advisory Board of 4 plus at least two Special Advisors (not to mention the 3 on the private AIOG Board in close support). Aureus leads the way with a Market Cap of £87m, Afferro next with £73m (and a lot of cash) and then IMIC with £13m (and a lot of ambition and promissory notes of unpublicised origin). And yet it's Afferro that's being courted. Fast forward the clock to the first "new" IMIC AGM and shareholders might be asking their new Chairman why loans were used to effect the merger when the same could have been done considerably cheaper by Afferro buying up IMIC or by just doing a straight forward merger "without the music". Of course, the loans might have then been available to dig iron ore out of the ground rather than buy off the departed short term traders.

This is an interesting presentation. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130514/pdf/42fw7x8nlryrx9.pdf Nothing in it suggests any aggressive intent by Sundance to keep hold of the port and rail responsibility. Because they still have it, though, there is a rather useful Gantt chart on the infrastructure project. It suggests a three year construction timeline. Also interesting is that they are investigating some sort of early output initiative perhaps like Ntem here, but with not much real detail.

A further update, this time from a French language outlet in English rather than an English language outlet in French. http://www.france24.com/en/20130515-france-gueant-sarkozy-campaign-funding-scandal I can't help thinking that it is only a matter of time before the French media pick up on this as a small stick to beat the anglophones with. Cameroon is bilingual (a bit like Canada but in reverse) so nationalists like Gueant himself might be forgiven for wondering why a French led company isn't seeking to provide the infrastructure for the south of the country (conveniently forgetting the former British mandate in the area of course) on behalf of the Cameroon and the Chinese. What on earth was the Chairman of IMIC doing appointing him at this time. What was the NOMAD doing agreeing to it? Perhaps the Chairman wants to spend more time with his family after almost three years at the top of IMIC, bearing in mind that the job is about to get much busier, there's room for only one Chairman in the merged entity and Afferro have the stand out candidate for the post on their Board. All in my personal opinion and with no accusations of any impropriety by anyone of course.

They will go on saying "no certainty" until the initial news release of an agreement is released.