Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Price Drop, my suggestions: 1. Founding Director moves off to pursue other interests . Confidence sapped. 2 Large shareholder with connection to Board sells holding (Angstrom) Confidence further sapped. 3. Rosy Mining Ltd buys in but the Company isn't prepared to say who Rosy Mining Ltd are. IMIC toehold perhaps? 4. Apr RNS saying mid June for additional drills but no conformation of milestone reached provided. 5. Sundance announcement on Cameroon Mbalam Convention infrastructure slips solution to 2014. 6. Iron Ore Rally assessed as temporary. 7. Opportunities elsewhere. 8. That's probably enough....
Before we get to that stage, WAFM is probably going to have to weather a bid from the new AFF/IMIC/AIOG Group. They may be expecting it; why else have they recruited a company secretary based in Canada?
For what it's worth, I can see that the IMIC RTO of AFF has sucked some of the cash away from WAFM, Equally though, it's worth remembering that SDL are currently examining tenders from rail and port infrastructure providers and that a decision there will have a profound effect on WAFM. IMIC/AIOG have been suggesting they are a shoe-in and I recall that the President of Cameroon recently visited Geneva at the same time that IMIC entered the market for AFF shares (coincidental I'm sure). The time frames for both the RTO and the SDL decision appear to be almost identical but I'm sure IMIC/AIOG would like to conclude the AFF RTO before SDL declaration and avoid even more fuss.
This may have had a small part to play in this rally. "IMIC, the infrastructure and mining company which recently made an agreed bid for West Africa-focused miner Afferro, is looking at more investments in the region as it strives to open up a Cameroon export route for iron ore. "We won't stop at Afferro ... we're looking along the development corridor," Haresh Kanabar, chairman of IMIC, said in an interview on Friday". http://www.theafricareport.com/Reuters-Feed/IMIC-bets-on-West-African-promise-with-more-deals-ahead.html
I think it more likely that IMIC will pull out (but keeping their now substantial holding) rather than be kicked out, causing AFF sp to fall until resurrected by a POSCO JV perhaps. They might do this so they can concentrate on fronting a bid for SDL which still includes the infrastructure and port. Once this becomes known, AFF controlled by IMIC will still be able to negotiate off-take for China partners and, of course, it will cause an un-stranding valuation increase for everyone from the West Congo to Kribi, which would be nice for WAFM too.
Read out from the lead organiser of CIMIC 2013 http://allafrica.com/stories/201306050986.html?aa_source=acrdn-f0 I wasn't alone in expecting some announcement on the Mbalam Convention so when it didn't come there was a minor sell off, I think. The aside reported from the Sundance rep was that they would be deciding on a partner this month with an announcement in about three months time. This time frame fits in well with IMIC's approach to AFF which, if there had been an announcement, would be regarded by even more people as nowhere near good enough. IMIC will be looking to conclude whatever it is doing with AFF before the SDL announcement, I would have thought. A Canadian Plan of Arrangement takes about 60 days to complete, I read somewhere.
Hi, it certainly has been an interesting day for my Cameroon interests (AFF, IMIC and BVN but not here). As for the 29th-31st it may not be crucial but it's certainly very interesting. Having just given everyone holding AFF the opportunity to share in IMIC Incs future good fortune without actually having any shares or votes, I'm confidently expecting news that Sundance have given over rail/port to IMIC and their partners followed by a grandstand announcement about plans and funding to stiffle any rebellion. By coincidence there was a rail related good news announcement last week that bore all the hallmarks of being coordinated with a Presidential level push for development as does today's BVN RNS. WAFMs recent rise points to something imminent soon too.
You can say what you like about the IMIC AFF affair but for me the most positive thing about it is that the Board, Management and representatives of significant holders of AFF will have been briefed on the rail and port plans of IMIC. A positive announcement of an advance on the path to the un-stranding of Mbalam and points west can't be far away and will do wonders both here and at Sundance.
IMIC? Absolutely but I got out on personal integrity grounds. Any day soon they are going to announce they have the lead on the port and the railway but watch out for the dilution they have already signalled. CIMEX on 29 May could be significant. I'm not puffing WAFM but they have a cleaner feel, are more liquid and will benefit greatly from a rail/port announcement too. They are also looking at the advantages of a listing in Canada, in my opinion. That's enough on WAFM.
I've sold out all but a few shares which I'm keeping for curiosity and as a ticket for the AGM/SM/GM if I'm in town that day. Best of luck for the future. My interest is now in WAFM.
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply it would help ordinary AFF shareholders in the short term, unless they perhaps move over to WAFM in anticipation. I'm suggesting that if the good news comes before the vote, the frustration and anger of the impotent minority (non-institutional, non-Directors that is) will be a wonder to witness. The same pent up "good news" is what will prevent POSCO and Jindal making a bid against this "done deal" in my opinion. Clearly, this deal is part of a bigger plan by IMIC Inc -AIOG Ltd which will also help Sundance and others if they pull it off. It might even help ordinary Cameroon citizens. That might still include a JV with POSCO to give a double dose of good news for IMIC Inc shareholders and Directors anyway.
Straight forward, really. The three options are off the table and there is now only one way forward. 80p Cash plus 40p promise and no choice (except for it to be voted on, obviously).
Time will indeed tell. I do think, though, that the "good news" isn't over yet. I'm confident that IMIC will shortly announce it is taking over the Rail/Port point from Sundance (the Sundance share fall and WAFM share rise support this interpretation). If that is before the AFF RTO is voted on then things will get very interesting.
Perhaps the market is suspicious of this deal, which shows signs of being negotiated for the benefit of a subset of shareholders in AFF. That subset are people and institutions who had and have a legal but iffy foot in both camps already. In my opinion and with no accusations of wrongdoing of course.
No one can believe that the AFF Board have negotiated a worse offer than the ones that were publicly announced (17 Apr).
I'm sure you mean the ones after mine! I made the mistake of posting on another board and now I'm being stalked by a bunny boiler. That will teach me.
"The government is putting measures in place to ensure transparency and avoid conflicts in the sector by striving to become an EITI compliant country by August 2013" http://bongben.wordpress.com/2013/05/08/cameroons-mining-sector-yet-to-contribute-to-development/ EITI http://eiti.org/ Will M. Gueant be representing IMIC at the conference in Sydney?
Mark, My guess is there will be an announcement on Monday, which is a holiday in Canada and Cameroon but not in UK, but only that the rail/port task has been negotiated away from Sundance. Look at WAFMs share price this afternoon for support to that idea. 29 May is looking favourite for the initial news release but will it be a COB rather than an RTO? After all, it could be said that this whole IMIC offer was a mistake of judgement made all the more obviously so by the mistimed announcement of the appointment of a Special Adviser.
In March Cameroon and Canada came to an agreement to protect investment by Canadian companies in Cameroon. This is probably a follow up. A couple of interesting points: mining businesses are included and they are visiting Douale and Kribi, both possible exit points for iron ore. It wouldn't be too surprising to learn that some of those attending will be staying in Cameroon to attend the mining Conference on 29 May, making it all worthwhile. http://www.businessincameroon.com/investment/1405-4065-20-canadian-person-delegation-scouts-visit-cameroon-in-may
IMIC gets a brief factual mention at the end: http://lajeunepolitique.com/2013/05/14/gueant-faces-corruption-allegations-from-potential-money-laundering/